I just noticed the popular vote

[agcatter]

totals continue to move up.  The election was over three weeks ago.  Does anyone know where these votes are coming from??

[dca5347]

My guess would be Provisinal Ballots

[J. J.]

These also might be difference from unofficial to the official vote count.  Also late absentee ballots, ballots that were postmarked on election day but not counted, in some states.

[agcatter]

I have noticed that a lot of these late votes came out of California (absentee ballots I guess).  However, this latest batch of 200,000 added to Dave's total today came from some other state or states.

[rbt48]

A bunch of votes (like 800,000) were counted in Washington State after election day, with their absurd mail-in system.  Of course, these were all accounted for over a week ago.

[nclib]

The popular vote margin keeps on narrowing--it's now at 2.71%. I guess the provisional ballots are favoring the Democrats.

[Reds4]

I believe the latest results came from Colorado. Colorado tightened up a lot, check out the results now, Bush only carried the state by 4%. CO does look to be trending to the Dems.

[Alcon]

He actually carried it by 5, but yes, it is close.

[minionofmidas]

Any counties been swinging?

[Reds4]

Alcon, yes he did carry Colorado by 5% if you round up, but still Colorado was closer than I expected.

[MODU]

The popular vote margin keeps on narrowing--it's now at 2.71%. I guess the provisional ballots are favoring the Democrats.

Not necessarily.  If both sides receive, say 1 million additional votes (evenly divided), the marginal percentage will decrease.  If, however, the absentee ballots, provisional ballots, etc break along the same national percentage, then the marginal percentage will stay the same.

[zorkpolitics]

A similar thing happened in 2000.  Soon after the election Gore led Bush by about 100,000.  By the end of the FL recount, Gore's PV lead had increased to >500,000.  Of course nobody cared much as the media attention was focused on FL.

Most of the increase in Democratic votes (Gore and Kerry) was from CA, OR, WA absentee ballots in 2000, and absentee and provisional ballots this year.

[rbt48]

I believe the latest results came from Colorado. Colorado tightened up a lot, check out the results now, Bush only carried the state by 4%. CO does look to be trending to the Dems.

Colorado didn't tighted up much in raw votes.  After election night, Bush led  by ~107,500 and now his lead is ~99,500 votes.  As noted by MODU, this does decrease the marginal percentage.

What is noteworthy is that Bush's nationwide lead has shrunken from 3.5 million to 3,263,499.  So his lead has narrowed by ~250,000.  Kerry has not gained as much as the 400,000+ votes that Gore did after the initial count was in but, I agree with zorkpolitics that it is mostly because of huge volumes of absentee ballots--mostly from California and Washington.  In CA alone, the Kerry lead grew from about 1 million on election night to 1.25 million today.  Personally, I maintain that provisional ballots will break close to 51 to 48% in Bush's favor nationwide.  I could be wrong, but I think voters on either side were liable to have lapsed registrations or have moved and been required to cast a provisional ballot.

I envision that as midwestern states release their final certified totals in the next two weeks, Bush's margin will grow just a little.

[nclib]

Any counties been swinging?

Chatham, NC--used to be Bush by 33, now favors Kerry by 5.

[jimrtex]

Any counties been swinging?

I saw that Willacy, TX moved to a more moderate color of red, similar to other border counties.  After the election, it was reported that they had double counted straight ticket ballots.  The correction apparently made it up to the Secretary of State's office.

[rbt48]

I saw the updated CA Presidential results on that state's website.  Kerry's lead in CA is now up to 1,249,533 votes.  Since the last update, posted by David, Kerry moved up 104,636 and Bush gained 88,046 votes.  This is a 54.3% to 45.7% split, not that different than the 54.6 to 44.1% that David had reported up till now.  So, the absentee votes (at least the latest batch) track pretty consistently with the other votes cast there.

[Storebought]

The final tally from the Mountain states show that CO and NV have been successfully californicated, but AZ still shows signs of resistance.

[JNB]

  Actually the CO result this year, with Bush taking a little under 52% of the vote isint that much different than the 88 election where his father took 53% of the vote. The main difference is the GOP can not even crack 30% in Denver any more, and doesnt do much better in boulder, and the GOP got bombed out in the resort areas.

  As for NV, it was closer, but Bush mainted 50%, and except for the 80s, NV has allways been a swing state. With the dramatic increase in voter registration in NV, especially in Democrats, Bush did better than many expected.

[danwxman]

Bush did better then expected everywhere. 2004 was more or less an anamoly because of 9/11 and terrorism...

It's NOT going to be hard for a Democrat to pick up Nevada, Colorodo, Iowa and New Mexico in 2008 as long as we have a decent candidate.

[JNB]

    GW Bush was not the best canidate this year or in 2000, nor was Kerry that bad of a canidate. The 9/11 issue only went so far, and the Iraq issue actually helped Bush as much as it hurt him at best. What I see 2004 was unlike 88, 84 or 72, the so called lonely landslides, was the GOP was active on the grass roots, and did their homework building party organizations, that produced a victory in spite of a so so canidate.

[muon2]

A lot of credit has to go to the GOP party unity, not just in the election year, but throughout the term. Party divisions are one of the surest sign of incumbent weakness. Bush worked hard in 2002 and built a great deal of support within the Congressional GOP. Frequent fundraising trips that helped local organizations helped create the unity that blocked the kind of primary challenge Bush 41 faced from Buchanan.

[rbt48]

Suggestion for David:

It would be nice on the EV map at the top if you could add the date you last updated to the unofficial popular vote.

Thanks!

[bushforever]

I still have faith in Colorado, because of Colorado Springs and Douglas County, stanch Republican areas that continue to grow.  Though there are Californians and other richies in ski resort land, I think the main focus will be on whether the GOP can hold their strong footholds in urban areas like El Paso, Douglas, Larimer, Arapahoe, and Jefferson Counties.  Luckily for the GOP, Denver proper isn't as big as Detroit and other cities which prevent the GOP from taking the Midwest.

Arizona, likewise, as long as Bush can hold a comfortable lead in Maricopa County.

Nevada, I'm definitely concerned about as it was so close this election and has been consistently close.  Nevada is also very close to CA and you have a lot more Calimigration going on here.

I also hope Utah and Idaho continue to grow and hopefully pick up a few EVs next census.

New Mexico, I think, will always remain close, with a slight democratic lean.

I've also lost a lot of faith in WA and OR unless the GOP gets a good local base going here.