How much more GOP did you county "swing" from the Bush pV bounce?
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  How much more GOP did you county "swing" from the Bush pV bounce?
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Author Topic: How much more GOP did you county "swing" from the Bush pV bounce?  (Read 5793 times)
phk
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« on: November 25, 2004, 03:46:49 PM »

I live in Fresno, CA

Bush 2000: 53%
Bush 2004: 57.9 (rounding up to 58%)

58% - 53% = 5%

GOP picks up 3% nationwide (48% to 51%)

5% - 3% = 2% swing

2/4 = 0.5% more GOP per year from 2000-2004

(rapid growth of Northeast Suburbs, and very low minority turnout solidifed it for Bush otherwise we would have gone to Kerry 52-48)
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BRTD
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« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2004, 05:12:12 PM »

Blue Earth Minnesota:

2000: 47.23%
2004: 47.52%

.29% gain. 2.75% gain nationwide. so a 2.46% swing toward Kerry in this context. .615% more Dem per year.

Although I doubt there was much change demographic wise, just an increase in turnout.
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KEmperor
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« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2004, 05:13:56 PM »

Suffolk, NY

2000:  Bush got 41.99%
2004:  Bush got 48.72%

49% - 42% = 7%

GOP picks up 3% nationwide

7% - 3% =  4% Swing to Bush
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A18
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« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2004, 05:24:19 PM »

That just goes to show how useless it is to compare one area with a national/state average.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4 on: November 25, 2004, 05:34:56 PM »

Good ol' Baltimore City:

2000:
Gore 82.5% 158,765   
Bush 14.1% 27,150   
Nader 2.9% 5,512   
Other 0.5% 977

2004:
Kerry 82.0% 175,022   
Bush 17.0% 36,230   
Other 1.1% 2,309

Bush gains 2.9% in Baltimore City.

Margin gain right now nationally for Bush is 3.24%, so Bush lost 0.34% compared to 2000.

Not that important.  Bush holding steady in Baltimore City, actually.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #5 on: November 25, 2004, 07:20:31 PM »

Hillsborough County, Fl: Bush in 2000: 53%
                                       Bush in 2004: 57%
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nclib
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« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2004, 09:58:16 PM »

Orange, NC

2000
Gore 62.7%
Bush 36.3%

2004
Kerry 66.9%   
Bush 32.4%

Bush lost 3.9%

Margin swung 8.1% Dem.

Compared to national average,

Bush lost 6.9%

Margin swung 11.4% Dem.
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bgwah
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« Reply #7 on: November 25, 2004, 11:08:24 PM »

King County, WA

2000-34.4% Bush
2004-33.7% Bush

-0.7% minus 3% = -3.7%
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Erc
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« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2004, 11:15:35 PM »

My county [Westchester, NY] swung 3.1%.

For a total additional swing of .1%.

[My town, on the other hand, has swung heavily Democrat over the last 4 years]
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King
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« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2004, 11:58:23 PM »

Santa Clara 2000: Bush 34.44% (rounds down to 34%)
Santa Clara 2004: Bush 34.7% (rounds up to 35%)

35% - 34% = 1% swing to Bush

Nationwide: 1% - 3% = 2% swing to Kerry
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Nym90
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« Reply #10 on: November 26, 2004, 10:06:50 AM »

Marquette County, MI--Bush went from 43% to 45%, so a 1% swing toward the Dems.
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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #11 on: November 26, 2004, 10:13:42 AM »

Wayne county Michigan

2000

Bush 29%

2004

Bush 29.8%
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Blerpiez
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« Reply #12 on: November 26, 2004, 12:15:59 PM »

Middlesex, MA

2000- Gore + 31%
2004-Kerry +30%

1% swing GOP
1% - 3% = 2% swing Dem
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Bogart
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« Reply #13 on: November 26, 2004, 01:02:04 PM »

Maricopa County, AZ

Bush 2000- 53.2%
Bush 2004- 57.0%

+3.8%.....0.8% over national increase...0.95% more GOP per year.

Not a trend probably, just turnout.
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The Dowager Mod
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« Reply #14 on: November 26, 2004, 06:47:20 PM »

Bush 2000 56.80%
Bush 2004 59.42%
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dca5347
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« Reply #15 on: November 28, 2004, 10:00:45 PM »

Mecklenburg County went 4 Bush in 2000(just barely),It went 4 Kerry this time(barely) No upsurge for the President here
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Cashcow
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« Reply #16 on: November 28, 2004, 10:50:48 PM »

Camden County, NJ:

2000: Bush 31.7%
2004: Bush 36.8%

3.1% swing GOP. It won't last.
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jacob_101
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« Reply #17 on: November 29, 2004, 01:39:47 AM »

Hennepin County, MN

2000:  39.3%
2004:  39.4%

Virtually identical

3% less GOP than 2000.
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Beet
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« Reply #18 on: November 29, 2004, 03:12:56 AM »

Montgomery county, MD:

Dole 1996- 35.15%
Bush 2000- 33.52%
Bush 2004- 32.83%

So while the GOP vote rose 10.15% nationwide in the past 8 years, it fell by 2.32% in Montgomery county, or trending 12.47% more Dem than average, an average rate of 1.56% more Democratic per year.

Not only was Bush beaten by Bob Dole here, he was nearly beaten by Barry Goldwater, who got 33.76% here.
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Sarnstrom
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« Reply #19 on: December 01, 2004, 06:55:31 PM »

Pierce County, WI

Bush 2000: 45.5%             Gore 2000: 47.7%
Bush 2004: 47.8%             Kerry 2004: 51.2%

2.1% GOP gain and a 3.5% DEM gain.
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