The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting, but PPP needs a final poll there because Davis is rapidely imploding.

[Rowan]

Interesting tidbit in the Siena poll. Jack Davis voters give President Obama a 34/66 favorability rating. If Davis collapses further, it seems unlikely that those voters would go to Hochul and would be more likely to go to Corwin.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting tidbit in the Siena poll. Jack Davis voters give President Obama a 34/66 favorability rating. If Davis collapses further, it seems unlikely that those voters would go to Hochul and would be more likely to go to Corwin.

On the other hand, Davis voters view Hochul much more favorable than Corwin (37-58 vs. 16-74).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

My guess is Davis has collapsed to his bare minimum; anyone left in his column is either going to vote for him regardless of what happens in the next three days or just not vote.

I was wrong about Hochul not being able to pull in more support, though that was predicated on Davis maintaining over 20% support.

[HST1948]

Interesting tidbit in the Siena poll. Jack Davis voters give President Obama a 34/66 favorability rating. If Davis collapses further, it seems unlikely that those voters would go to Hochul and would be more likely to go to Corwin.

 On paper I would agree with you but corwin has attacked davis a lot more than Hochul has and in the last week has released an d reminding voters that davis ran is a democrat in the past and has "strings attached" to nancy pelosi. This makes me think the Davis supporters could go to Hochul if they decide not to support him on election day. And from what I have observed  davis has attack both parties equally  and has attacked Corwin probably as much if not more than Hochul.

[Holmes]

Nancy Pelosi still being used a the boogeyman? Ha. Not surprised.

[HST1948]

Nancy Pelosi still being used a the boogeyman? Ha. Not surprised.

 Yes lol, corwin has used her in a ton of ads featuring Hochul and Davis as puppets and nancy pelosi as the puppeteer.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Nancy Pelosi still being used a the boogeyman? Ha. Not surprised.

I guess Michael Dukakis lost some of his potency during the last two years.

[Verily]

It can't be done, not because of political resistance (although there is that, too--the current map is strong inertia), but because there are too many people living between the areas. You literally can't draw a map that takes in both Rochester and Syracuse in their entireties, at least not without saddling the surrounding districts with a lot of strongly Democratic inner-ring suburbs (and maybe not at all).

[Meeker]

Nate Silver: A key fact from that NY-26 poll: only 50% of those who say Medicare most important issue are Democrats. But 80% plan to vote Hochul.

[Lunar]

Davis got a newspaper endorsement

http://niagara-gazette.com/opinion/x370467227/Go-with-Jack-Davis

[DrScholl]

from PPP via twitter

http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/72404359224369152

We will have final NY-26 results out tonight, they will continue to show Hochul with the lead, as our poll 2 weeks ago did

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NY_05221118.pdf

Hochul 42, Corwin 36, Davis 13.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Would you like the new Congressman from our district to caucus with the Democrats or the Republicans in Congress?
Democrats 39%
Republicans 41%
Not Sure 20%

Do you have more faith in Barack Obama or Congressional Republicans to lead the country in the right direction?
Barack Obama 44%
Congressional Republicans 45%
Not Sure 11%

Ouch...

[HST1948]

Would you like the new Congressman from our district to caucus with the Democrats or the Republicans in Congress?
Democrats 39%
Republicans 41%
Not Sure 20%

Do you have more faith in Barack Obama or Congressional Republicans to lead the country in the right direction?
Barack Obama 44%
Congressional Republicans 45%
Not Sure 11%

Ouch...

Considering the composition of this district these numbers aren't that bad. But you are right... Ouch!

[Dgov]

This is a really odd poll actually, and probably indicative of the odd politics of upstate new york more than anything else.  The Sample ideology is 46% Conservative, 24% Liberal, and 30% Moderate, which means it should be closer to the Upper South than Upstate New York, but Corwin is only winning  ~60% of "Conservative" Voters, which means that there a a bunch of voters who said they were Conservative but probably aren't.  Undecideds are overwhelmingly Conservative however, and can probably be expected to break for Corwin in the end.


Also, we have an interesting reverse age gap here, as Corwin is creaming Hochul 2:1 with young voters but is losing Olds by 15.  This is probably just a bad sample, as Young voters are across-the-board more Republican in this poll, with 60% disapproving of Obama versus 47% of their elders.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Also, we have an interesting reverse age gap here, as Corwin is creaming Hochul 2:1 with young voters but is losing Olds by 15.  This is probably just a bad sample, as Young voters are across-the-board more Republican in this poll, with 60% disapproving of Obama versus 47% of their elders.

Are you in college? If so you seriously need to take a class on polling, at least one that focuses on margin of error.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Actually what I find most interesting is Corwin's vs. Hochul's favorables. Those numbers are simply brutal for Corwin.

[they don't love you like i love you]

In regards to the redistricting talk, I should note that the earmuffs are leaving no matter what, the main reason for it wasn't to shore up Slaughter who was never in danger, but the old Republican Rep from Buffalo Jack Quinn. His old seat was over 59% Gore, the earmuffs removed the black part of Buffalo and cut it down to about 54% Gore. In fact of the trio of Slaughter, (retired in 2002 due to redistricting) Democrat John LaFalce and Quinn who represented the region from Rochester to Buffalo, Quinn had by far the strongest Gore district. But even the post-redistricting seat was still too Dem to be held without Quinn. So there's really no one who'd be pushing to keep the earmuffs. Higgins and Hochul might have to have an interesting talk though.

[Dgov]

Also, we have an interesting reverse age gap here, as Corwin is creaming Hochul 2:1 with young voters but is losing Olds by 15.  This is probably just a bad sample, as Young voters are across-the-board more Republican in this poll, with 60% disapproving of Obama versus 47% of their elders.

Are you in college? If so you seriously need to take a class on polling, at least one that focuses on margin of error.

LOL.  Read my post again

Here, I'll make it easier for you:

Also, we have an interesting reverse age gap here, as Corwin is creaming Hochul 2:1 with young voters but is losing Olds by 15.  This is probably just a bad sample, as Young voters are across-the-board more Republican in this poll, with 60% disapproving of Obama versus 47% of their elders.

[comatose]

what you cite is not evidence of a bad sample. you are drawing a false conclusion. the samples for each subset are so small that the margin of error is high enough to skew the data wildly even though in the context of the whole, the sample is fitting.

[Lunar]

In regards to the redistricting talk, I should note that the earmuffs are leaving no matter what, the main reason for it wasn't to shore up Slaughter who was never in danger, but the old Republican Rep from Buffalo Jack Quinn. His old seat was over 59% Gore, the earmuffs removed the black part of Buffalo and cut it down to about 54% Gore. In fact of the trio of Slaughter, (retired in 2002 due to redistricting) Democrat John LaFalce and Quinn who represented the region from Rochester to Buffalo, Quinn had by far the strongest Gore district. But even the post-redistricting seat was still too Dem to be held without Quinn. So there's really no one who'd be pushing to keep the earmuffs. Higgins and Hochul might have to have an interesting talk though.

I think the current representative would appreciate representing as high of a % of her district from the years before as possible.

[Dgov]

what you cite is not evidence of a bad sample. you are drawing a false conclusion. the samples for each subset are so small that the margin of error is high enough to skew the data wildly even though in the context of the whole, the sample is fitting.

Margins of error are your levels of confidence that your sample accurately represents the whole.  If you have a high margin of error, that means that the odds of getting a bad sample size (i.e. something that would lead you to the opposite conclusion of what actually exists) is fairly high, which is what i'm saying here.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

In regards to the redistricting talk, I should note that the earmuffs are leaving no matter what, the main reason for it wasn't to shore up Slaughter who was never in danger, but the old Republican Rep from Buffalo Jack Quinn. His old seat was over 59% Gore, the earmuffs removed the black part of Buffalo and cut it down to about 54% Gore. In fact of the trio of Slaughter, (retired in 2002 due to redistricting) Democrat John LaFalce and Quinn who represented the region from Rochester to Buffalo, Quinn had by far the strongest Gore district. But even the post-redistricting seat was still too Dem to be held without Quinn. So there's really no one who'd be pushing to keep the earmuffs. Higgins and Hochul might have to have an interesting talk though.

I put up a map over in the New York redistricting thread that passed the earmuffs to Hochul, should she win, making the district about 56-43 Obama. Higgins has locked down his district; as long as he doesn't retire, it's safe as-is, he doesn't need strengthening. He strikes me as a backbencher, so he must have some local appeal that I'm not aware of.

[tpfkaw]

He strikes me as a backbencher, so he must have some local appeal that I'm not aware of.

Buffalo is super-parochial, hence why Quinn was able to win landslide reelection over and over, and also why Paladino received results in the Buffalo area that would seem typical of a >60% Republican landslide in the middle of a >60% Democratic landslide.