The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.

[Meeker]

NY Times:

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Thank you, Paul Ryan.

[ag]

Democrats have a very, very good track record with special elections (especially in New York) so I'm not really sure where all the pessimism is coming from.

This is the one district in the entire state that has been drawn to be a hardcore conservative Republican district (arguably NY-13 is Republican because of Republicans´s secondary role as the Staten Island National Party and NY-3 is merely "Long Island Republican" and not overly conservative).

[memphis]

Democrats have a very, very good track record with special elections (especially in New York) so I'm not really sure where all the pessimism is coming from.

This is the one district in the entire state that has been drawn to be a hardcore conservative Republican district (arguably NY-13 is Republican because of Republicans´s secondary role as the Staten Island National Party and NY-3 is merely "Long Island Republican" and not overly conservative).

It's R+6. A strong GOP lean, but by no means "hardcore." Dems have been known to win in much tougher territory.

[Smash255]

Hochul 46.5%
Corwim 42.1%
Davis 10.5%
Murphy 0.9%

[DrScholl]

Democrats have a very, very good track record with special elections (especially in New York) so I'm not really sure where all the pessimism is coming from.

I don't get it either. The favorables say it all, I don't think any candidate with double digit favorables loses to a candidate with double digit negatives.

[Tender Branson]

This looks interesting, so I'll probably wake up at 3am in the morning to follow the results ...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Pete Sessions seems to be pretty dour on Corwin's chances.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Ian Murphy, Green Party candidate and the man who pranked Scott Walker, phonebanks for Jane Corwin and describes his experience in hilarious detail.

http://www.buffalobeast.com/?p=6072

I spent about three hours volunteering at Jane Corwin HQ, phoning potential voters, under the alias Steve Smith–an underemployed pet psychic and WNY repat most recently from Oakland, CA.

“That’s…interesting,” an organizer named Erin says, not really paying attention. “Well, thanks for helping out.” I probably didn’t have to go through the trouble, but I’d given myself a buzz cut, dyed my hair black and wore a pair of thick-framed reading glasses, for a disguise. After about ten minutes of sweating through my oxford shirt, it became clear that no one in that room thought I was anything other than Steve Smith, eager Republican wanker.

I actually spoke with roughly 100 people, and the majority of them were extremely upset with the harassment by phone. Unless they immediately relented and said they were voting for Jane, their name went back into the system, and we’d call them until their spirits were thoroughly crushed. It’s an odd campaigning strategy — one that is no doubt backfiring.

People are sick of the media saturation–the constant lies spewing from camp Corwin. These calls seemed to represent the last straw for a lot of folks.

“Um, Bob?” I beckon the supervisor.

“Yeah, Steve, what is it?”

“Some of these people are saying that Jane is going to end Medicare–just because that’s what the Wall Street Journal wrote. What should I tell them–should I lie?”

“Hmm…” Bob thinks about this for a few seconds. “They’ve been asking about Medicare?”

“Yeah.” And they were.

“sh**t,” he mumbles under his breath. “Don’t lie. Tell them that, if they’re 55 or over, Jane’s plan won’t change their Medicare. And if they’re 54 or under tell them that Jane’s plan will…um…make things…better.” He walks away.

“But, Bob?” I call after him. “Some of these people are younger and they think Medicare is a problem…should I tell them that Jane’s plan will end Medicare?”

“Yeah, if it helps,” he says, running back to his desk. The ruminant Chairman of the Erie County Republican Committee Nick Langworthy is lingering in a back corner. They conspire about something terrible, no doubt.

[Meeker]

Studies of field programs show that those people who are pissed and frustrated at being bothered aren't going going to change their votes or intentionally not show up because of the phone calls. People value their votes too much to let it be decided by something petty like that.

Nevertheless, very funny article.

[Rowan]

Hochul: 46%
Corwin: 42%
Davis: 10%
Murphy: 2%

[The Dowager Mod]

http://www.buffalonews.com/incoming/article432430.ece
Funny stuff.

[cinyc]

http://www.buffalonews.com/incoming/article432430.ece
Funny stuff.

That's standard operating procedure in potentially close New York races, for some bizarre reason.  If Corwin didn't do it, Hochul probably would have.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Would Hochul had filed it in her own office?

[cinyc]

Would Hochul had filed it in her own office?

She or the Democratic party would have had to get an order from a court which, yes, would have ended up getting filed in her own office (along with the relevant officials in the other counties).  Note- I'm assuming the order required it be served on the Erie and other County Clerks, thought the article doesn't expressly say so, just boards of elections and sheriffs.

This typically happens in races thought to be close - in the old days, to make sure that the old lever voting machines were properly impounded in case of a recount.  I really don't understand why it's necessary.  Results won't actually be certified for week or two at the county level, let alone by the state.

[Napoleon]

There's nothing funny about if you read the article. Actually I guess it's funny Corwin thinks it will be close.

[Lief 🗽]

Jack "Crazy Old Man" Davis continues to bring the lulz and win my support:

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http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/05/23/978458/-Special-Elections-foreshadow-change-in-Democratic-fortunes?via=sidebytagfeed

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Kathy Hochul 47%
Jane Corwin 41%
Jack Davis 11%

[Holmes]

Corwin with 17% would be a disaster for the Republican party.

[Meeker]

Corwin with 17% would be a disaster for the Republican party.

Jack Davis likely made those numbers up in the shower Monday morning. Don't even pay attention to them.

[Lief 🗽]

Have the polls closed yet or do we have to wait until 9?

[Napoleon]

Corwin with 17% would be a disaster for the Republican party.

Jack Davis likely made those numbers up in the shower Monday morning. Don't even pay attention to them.

Strangely he never struck me as the showering type.

[cinyc]

Have the polls closed yet or do we have to wait until 9?

Polls in New York close at 9PM.  Given our archaic reporting system, we'll probably be waiting longer than that for results.

[Lief 🗽]

Corwin with 17% would be a disaster for the Republican party.

Jack Davis likely made those numbers up in the shower Monday morning. Don't even pay attention to them.

Strangely he never struck me as the showering type.

I like to imagine that he bathes himself in a stream from time to time.

Have the polls closed yet or do we have to wait until 9?

Polls in New York close at 9PM.  Given our archaic reporting system, we'll probably be waiting longer than that for results.

laaaame. I miss living in the central time zone, at least when it comes to watching election results.

[cinyc]

First precinct from Livingston:

Representative in Congress (26th District)
Vote for 01
1 of 40 machines reporting(40 total districts)
Kathy Courtney Hochul
31
Jane L. Corwin
65
Ian L. Murphy
4
Jack Davis
7

And 9 precincts from MonroeNiagara:
Percent
Votes
REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS 26TH DISTRICT_ (Vote for 1)
Congressional District 026
9 of 56 (16%) machines reporting (100 total districts)
P
Kathy Courtney Hochul
1,681
44.32%
D
P
Jane L Corwin
1,632
43.03%
D
P
Jack Davis
461
12.15%
D
P
Ian L Murphy
19
0.50%
D
3,793

[Tender Branson]

Should we post results in a new thread ?

PS: Have polls already closed in NY-26 ?