The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.
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  The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.
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Author Topic: The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.  (Read 49489 times)
Nichlemn
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« Reply #450 on: May 25, 2011, 03:00:45 AM »

Rationally speaking, Hochul winning shouldn't make any great difference to redistricting. NY State Senate Republicans have the same bargaining power as they did before (perhaps slightly decreased as the election updates our beliefs about their future electoral prospects, but only very marginally). If their bargaining power gave them an expectation of X% of the electoral cake yesterday, then their almost identical bargaining power should give them almost exactly X% of the electoral cake today. How the cake is divided now should be irrelevant.

However, in practice, this probably won't be the case. Redistricters seem to suffer from status quo bias (hence the occasional "incumbent protection map" that is really one party's gerrymander).
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #451 on: May 25, 2011, 03:24:18 AM »

It's too bad the teabagger person didn't win. He seemed like a pretty solid dude.
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Rowan
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« Reply #452 on: May 25, 2011, 05:22:52 AM »

Seems like my prediction was pretty good.
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Badger
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« Reply #453 on: May 25, 2011, 07:38:35 AM »

Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

It's definitely not a spoiler election because Davis wasn't running on a Tea Party platform, he was running on a protectionist/anti-Paul Ryan plan platform.

lol though read Red State's spin on the election here: http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/05/24/the-gop-loss-in-new-york-was-about-new-york-not-paul-ryan/

Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.

Whereas those other races were run as much on local issues (e.g. carpetbagging) rather than national (where otherwise craptastic GOP candidates actually won significant support), the focal issue here was the Ryan Medicare "dead in a decade" plan.

If Republicans really want to ascribe this to local issues and personalities, I happily URGE them to replay this platform next year.
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Meeker
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« Reply #454 on: May 25, 2011, 12:21:03 PM »

Anyone know what's going on with the remaining five precincts in Erie?
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cinyc
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« Reply #455 on: May 25, 2011, 12:55:36 PM »

Anyone know what's going on with the remaining five precincts in Erie?

Probably the same thing that happened with the 15 missing precincts from Genesee - no there there.

The Erie County portion of the district is already significantly overrepresented in vote share compared to past regular elections.  Monroe (Rochester) was most underrepresented.
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Verily
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« Reply #456 on: May 25, 2011, 01:00:24 PM »

Presumably no one advertised in the Rochester media market because the vast majority of the district is in the Buffalo media market, thus dampening Rochester-market turnout.
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cinyc
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« Reply #457 on: May 25, 2011, 01:04:55 PM »

Presumably no one advertised in the Rochester media market because the vast majority of the district is in the Buffalo media market, thus dampening Rochester-market turnout.

Given that relative turnout was also down in the other county in the Rochester TV Market (Livingston), that's probably correct - or at least they advertised less.  Stupid strategy on Corwin's part, but correct.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #458 on: May 25, 2011, 03:55:24 PM »

Could they have dumped this much money into the race without advertising in Rochester? Seems like they'd hit declining marginal returns in Buffalo and someone would think to hit the share of the district in Monroe.
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cinyc
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« Reply #459 on: May 25, 2011, 04:28:50 PM »
« Edited: May 25, 2011, 04:40:57 PM by cinyc »

Could they have dumped this much money into the race without advertising in Rochester? Seems like they'd hit declining marginal returns in Buffalo and someone would think to hit the share of the district in Monroe.

I'm sure someone did some advertising there - though I doubt it was anywhere close to as wall-to-wall as it likely was in the Buffalo DMA.  The fact is that Monroe County cast 22-23% of the districtwide vote in 2008 and 2010 and only 19% here.  Livingston's share dropped from a typical 9% to under 8%.  Erie's share, on the other hand, was up from 33-34% to almost 38%.

Granted, that the candidates were from the Buffalo part of the district could have played a role, but the drop is pretty noticeable.

We've seen this pattern before in special elections - Berkshire County, Massachusetts (Albany TV Market) showing lower relative turnout in the MA Special Senate election, the outlying counties of NY-20 in various smaller TV markets showing lower relative turnout compared to the parts of the district in the Albany TV market in the NY-20 special, etc.  So it's not exactly unexpected.

Note: Erie's share is going to be even higher.  3 more districts reported, adding additional votes.  It's 39% of the total now, and might end up at 40%.   Hochul's margin is 4.6%.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #460 on: May 26, 2011, 05:05:42 AM »

An alternative explanation drawn from something I saw in DKE: the Monroe end of the district is more Republican than the district as a whole. If we saw higher relative Dem turnout and enthusiam than in recent elections, a sound assumption, then that could account for the difference. Plus both candidates having a base in the western end.
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Cincinnatus
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« Reply #461 on: May 26, 2011, 08:47:33 AM »

Rothenberg has moved the race to toss-up/lean Democratic. Claims that Davis is deflating but Corwin is not benefiting. Holy crap. Special elections in upstate New York are just unnecessarily cruel to Republicans, no?

Hochul won by a comfortable margin.  Davis only had somewhere in the range of 7-9%. 
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rob in cal
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« Reply #462 on: May 26, 2011, 10:26:25 AM »

Does anyone have any feelings about the effect of Davis on the race.  Had he not been running would Corwin have come significantly closer to winning?
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cinyc
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« Reply #463 on: May 26, 2011, 01:14:58 PM »
« Edited: May 26, 2011, 01:25:29 PM by cinyc »

An alternative explanation drawn from something I saw in DKE: the Monroe end of the district is more Republican than the district as a whole. If we saw higher relative Dem turnout and enthusiam than in recent elections, a sound assumption, then that could account for the difference. Plus both candidates having a base in the western end.

What's DKE?  If it is what I think it is, beware of Democratic hack websites.

If the DKE theory was correct, relative turnout would have equally been down in Wyoming County, the most Republican county of all.  But it wasn't.  

The Monroe part of the district isn't that Republican-leaning.  In the 2008 Congressional election, it was about as Republican as the Niagara part of the district.  But relative turnout was higher than usual in Niagara in the special election.  And I doubt relative turnout and enthusiasm was more Democratic than 2008, anyway.

Yes, both candidates have a base in the western end of the district.  But I doubt that was unusual, given that the bulk of the population is there, too (or, at least, in the Buffalo TV market).  I think both Lee and Kryzan were from Erie County in 2008.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #464 on: May 26, 2011, 02:05:57 PM »

All DKE said was that the Monroe county part is more Republican than the district as a whole. The rest was me.
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cinyc
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« Reply #465 on: May 26, 2011, 02:29:51 PM »

All DKE said was that the Monroe county part is more Republican than the district as a whole. The rest was me.

At the Congressional level, not really - at least in 2008 and 2010.  In 2008, when both major candidates were from Erie County, the Monroe part was extremely slightly more Lee (R) leaning (57.9% of the two-party vote) than the district (57.6%).  In 2010, when the sacrificial lamb Democratic candidate hailed from Monroe County, it was actually less Lee (R) leaning (71.2%) than the district (73.6%).  In the special election, it was more Republican-leaning than the district as a whole because Hochul really cleaned up in Erie County.

With the final results in, Erie County's votes were 40% of those cast, instead of the usual 33-34%.  Before absentees, Hochul beat Corwin by 5.12 points.
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Holmes
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« Reply #466 on: May 26, 2011, 06:29:47 PM »

No maps? Sad


New Swing State Project, I believe.
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cinyc
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« Reply #467 on: May 26, 2011, 07:04:36 PM »
« Edited: May 26, 2011, 07:07:34 PM by cinyc »


It's not a terribly interesting map:



Do you want a map of something other than the winner?
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Napoleon
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« Reply #468 on: May 26, 2011, 07:34:37 PM »


Yes, Daily Kos Elections is the new SSP.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #469 on: May 28, 2011, 11:51:49 PM »

Erie County is now fully counted, with Hochul picking up a net 800 votes, so we have a final result - pending about 6000 or so uncounted absentee ballots:

  50.750 votes (47.50%) Hochul
  45.281 votes (42.38%) Corwin
    9.666 votes   (9.05%) Davis
    1.149 votes   (1.07%) Murphy

106.846 votes
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #470 on: May 29, 2011, 11:54:59 AM »

so, dems. + greens = 48.57% of the vote.
republicans + jack davis = 51.43% of the vote.

I don't think Davis was an spoiler... if only hochul carried 20% of his voters, while carrying 70-80% of Murphy's voters, she would have won. So, if Davis is to be called an spoiler, so should be Murphy.
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