The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.
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  The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.
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Author Topic: The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.  (Read 49479 times)
TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #375 on: May 24, 2011, 08:39:08 PM »

Apparently results for Lockport and North Tonawanda aren't in yet for Niagara County. I don't see how Corwin could possibly win if she's doing that poorly in her home base areas of Niagara (I'm pretty sure she represents Lockport and the outlying areas in Albany).  
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Smash255
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« Reply #376 on: May 24, 2011, 08:39:59 PM »

Hochul really needs to improve in Niagara.

Taking a look at the precincts in Niagara that are in it looks like Hochul is outperforming Obama.

Where are you finding the detailed precinct results for Niagara?

From the Niagara website

http://nts.ntsdata.com/eSuiteReports/ncboelive/se11/r102_dist.htm
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #377 on: May 24, 2011, 08:40:30 PM »

Livingston is close, which is bad news for Corwin. I wonder if some of these rural ultra GOP counties are like the heavily Republican counties in Central and Western PA, all the dems come in first then the Republicans overwhelm them ending with GOP wins by 2-1 and 3-1 margins. 

Livingston isn't an ultra GOP county though, it gave Obama 45% of the vote so these current results are consistent with what the results are showing in Monroe and Erie.

Indeed, that is true. My main interest was to find out from a demographic standpoint how uniform these "relatively" and strong GOP counties (I think the non-Erie, non-Niagara, non-Monroe Counties have been sufficiently grouped off, now. Tongue).
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Smash255
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« Reply #378 on: May 24, 2011, 08:41:24 PM »

Wow, the Erie numbers are brutal for Corwin. Not sure how she makes up this deficit, especially if Hochul does as well in the other rural counties as she is doing in Livingston.

Agreed.  Corwin's only hope is for every single Erie precinct in to be from Amherst, but even looking at what is left in Niagara, even if all of Erie that is in is Amherst, that might not be enough.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #379 on: May 24, 2011, 08:41:30 PM »

Here´s a comparison of Hochul and Kryzan in 2008:

Erie: Kryzan (45%), Hochul (55%) +10

Livingston: Kryzan (39%), Hochul (43%) +4

Monroe: Kryzan (40%), Hochul (43%) +3

Niagara: Kryzan (41%), Hochul (43%) +2

Wyoming: Kryzan (32%), Hochul (44%) +12

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/county/#NYH26p1
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ag
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« Reply #380 on: May 24, 2011, 08:43:24 PM »

W/ 5/19 election districts reporting in Wyoming its Corwin 869, Hochul 703 - clearly, noth enough for Corwin.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #381 on: May 24, 2011, 08:43:52 PM »

Overall (281/627):

48% - 23,744 votes - Kathy Hochul (DEM)
42% - 20,888 votes - Jane Corwin (GOP)
  9% -   4,169 votes - Jack Davis (TEA)
  1% -      538 votes - Ian Murphy (GRN)
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Meeker
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« Reply #382 on: May 24, 2011, 08:45:22 PM »

These results have also come in shockingly quick.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #383 on: May 24, 2011, 08:45:36 PM »

Overall (345/627):

48% - 29,063 votes - Kathy Hochul (DEM)
43% - 26,277 votes - Jane Corwin (GOP)
  8% -   5,090 votes - Jack Davis (TEA)
  1% -      658 votes - Ian Murphy (GRN)
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ag
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« Reply #384 on: May 24, 2011, 08:47:30 PM »

Hochul has opened a 450 vote lead in Niagara: 5304 Hochul, 4846 Corwin
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Holmes
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« Reply #385 on: May 24, 2011, 08:47:53 PM »

http://twitter.com/#!/greggiroux/status/73200164034187264
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #386 on: May 24, 2011, 08:49:17 PM »

Yeah, this is pretty much a done deal for Hochul now ... Smiley
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #387 on: May 24, 2011, 08:49:33 PM »

These results have also come in shockingly quick.

They finally learned how to use the new voting machines, I suppose.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #388 on: May 24, 2011, 08:52:40 PM »

The PPP poll with Hochul+6 seems to be on a good track too.

It seems they now are better with polling special elections.
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Meeker
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« Reply #389 on: May 24, 2011, 08:53:11 PM »


That must be a mistake.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #390 on: May 24, 2011, 08:54:29 PM »

Overall (394/627):

48% - 33,607 votes - Kathy Hochul (DEM)
43% - 29,620 votes - Jane Corwin (GOP)
  8% -   5,682 votes - Jack Davis (TEA)
  1% -      742 votes - Ian Murphy (GRN)
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ag
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« Reply #391 on: May 24, 2011, 08:56:20 PM »

Niagara is giving Hochul more and more of a lead:

6095 Hochul
5378 Corwin
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #392 on: May 24, 2011, 08:57:26 PM »

Is it possible that she gets close to 50% after all ?
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ag
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« Reply #393 on: May 24, 2011, 08:57:50 PM »

Wyoming

Hochul 1274
Corwing 1753
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Seattle
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« Reply #394 on: May 24, 2011, 08:58:39 PM »

Livingston - 61/61 3411-3869 42/47
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ag
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« Reply #395 on: May 24, 2011, 08:59:02 PM »

Is it possible that she gets close to 50% after all ?

Not likely. A lot of rural areas still outstanding nad Davis is taking his share. Still, even if she stays at 47% or 48% it would be hard to argue it's all Davis's fault.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #396 on: May 24, 2011, 09:02:28 PM »

AP seems to have called it for Hochul.
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Thomas D
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« Reply #397 on: May 24, 2011, 09:03:12 PM »

AP seems to have called it for Hochul.

Just saw it on MSNBC.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #398 on: May 24, 2011, 09:03:55 PM »

Overall (462/627):

48% - 38,502 votes - Kathy Hochul (DEM) - WINNER
42% - 33,718 votes - Jane Corwin (GOP)
  8% -   6,595 votes - Jack Davis (TEA)
  1% -      858 votes - Ian Murphy (GRN)
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #399 on: May 24, 2011, 09:04:41 PM »

lol, good job GOP.
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