The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.
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  The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.
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Author Topic: The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.  (Read 49486 times)
Dgov
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« Reply #425 on: May 24, 2011, 09:54:09 PM »

I think the spoiler effect isn't very existent here, Corwin's favorables were terrible, that would indicate to me that it wasn't all about Davis pulling votes away from her. We also don't know just what percentage of Davis votes weren't going to support her at all, it may have been enough where the result was not spoiled.

You're also forgetting that Corwin spent most of the campaign attacking Davis rather than Hocul.  It's probably one of the reasons her favorability with his voters was so bad, and why Hocul was able to run her campaign comparatively unscathed.
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Smash255
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« Reply #426 on: May 24, 2011, 09:55:45 PM »

Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

It's definitely not a spoiler election because Davis wasn't running on a Tea Party platform, he was running on a protectionist/anti-Paul Ryan plan platform.

lol though read Red State's spin on the election here: http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/05/24/the-gop-loss-in-new-york-was-about-new-york-not-paul-ryan/

Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.

This seat is CONSIDERABLY  more Republican and conservative than NY-20 and NY-23
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Dgov
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« Reply #427 on: May 24, 2011, 09:56:51 PM »

Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

It's definitely not a spoiler election because Davis wasn't running on a Tea Party platform, he was running on a protectionist/anti-Paul Ryan plan platform.

lol though read Red State's spin on the election here: http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/05/24/the-gop-loss-in-new-york-was-about-new-york-not-paul-ryan/

Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.

This seat is CONSIDERABLY  more Republican and conservative than NY-20 and NY-23

By a whopping 4 points.  IIRC, you won both those elections by more than that
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #428 on: May 24, 2011, 09:57:55 PM »

Actually, this probably means that Buerkle is the upstate rep. on the chopping block. Shift NY-28's portion of Buffalo into NY-26, split Syracuse between NY-23 and NY-28, and the Democrats are good.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #429 on: May 24, 2011, 09:59:22 PM »

I think the spoiler effect isn't very existent here, Corwin's favorables were terrible, that would indicate to me that it wasn't all about Davis pulling votes away from her. We also don't know just what percentage of Davis votes weren't going to support her at all, it may have been enough where the result was not spoiled.

You're also forgetting that Corwin spent most of the campaign attacking Davis rather than Hocul.  It's probably one of the reasons her favorability with his voters was so bad, and why Hocul was able to run her campaign comparatively unscathed.

Well, there are reasons why Republicans decided to attack the Independant, not the Democrat.
I suppose. That's assuming than the NY Republican Party had good strategist, a thing than I doubt, given their current results. They can only win seats in a outside wave context like 2010, but seems unable to win an election in normal, neutral conditions.

As which side the voters are swinging on Medicare, we will see in 2012, I suppose.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #430 on: May 24, 2011, 09:59:37 PM »

Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

It's definitely not a spoiler election because Davis wasn't running on a Tea Party platform, he was running on a protectionist/anti-Paul Ryan plan platform.

lol though read Red State's spin on the election here: http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/05/24/the-gop-loss-in-new-york-was-about-new-york-not-paul-ryan/

Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.

The deal is that an Upstate Republican and a Downstate Democrat will get the axe.  No way Cuomo and the Assembly Democrats would allow both eliminated seats to be Democratic ones.  Especially considering that it will be Democratic seats being cut in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Missouri.
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xavier110
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« Reply #431 on: May 24, 2011, 10:00:33 PM »

NY-20 had been held by Gillibrand, and NY-23 was such a random situation with the Republican endorsing the Democrat. This race is entirely different and seems to be actually, well, focused on one single issue.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #432 on: May 24, 2011, 10:02:52 PM »
« Edited: May 24, 2011, 10:05:11 PM by TheDeadFlagBlues »

NY-20 happened when Democrats were still leading the GOP in Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat polls and when the stimulus was really popular. We should have held NY-20 because of the national climate in early 2009.

NY-23, yet again, was entirely different. The district is much more favorable to Obama and was trending our way for years. It's of a totally different character. On top of that, there was a real spoiler effect with some uninformed voters still voting for Scozzafava, Hoffman ran a terrible and pretty extremist teabagger campaign that wasn't going to fly in NY-23. PPP got the race wrong because they used a wrong turnout model.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #433 on: May 24, 2011, 10:03:26 PM »


Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.

Nah. Hochul has to move north to pick up the now unnecessary earmuffs. I actually think Slaughterhouse and Higgins get fairly compact districts this time around; there's little reason to give them much else. Hochul gets about what she has now.
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Smash255
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« Reply #434 on: May 24, 2011, 10:07:44 PM »

Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

It's definitely not a spoiler election because Davis wasn't running on a Tea Party platform, he was running on a protectionist/anti-Paul Ryan plan platform.

lol though read Red State's spin on the election here: http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/05/24/the-gop-loss-in-new-york-was-about-new-york-not-paul-ryan/

Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.

This seat is CONSIDERABLY  more Republican and conservative than NY-20 and NY-23

By a whopping 4 points.  IIRC, you won both those elections by more than that

Obama won NY-23 by  5.22, McCain won NY-26 by 5.72.  we are talking about a difference larger than the difference between NC & SC, or roughly between Ohio & Georgia.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #435 on: May 24, 2011, 10:08:12 PM »

You're also forgetting that Corwin spent most of the campaign attacking Davis rather than Hocul.  It's probably one of the reasons her favorability with his voters was so bad, and why Hocul was able to run her campaign comparatively unscathed.

That doesn't really change the fact that the spoiler effect didn't have as much impact. It was about the Medicare issue and Davis opposed the Ryan plan, which says to me that all his supporters would not have been pro-Corwin.
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« Reply #436 on: May 24, 2011, 10:12:34 PM »

NY- 23 did tell us something about 2010.  The more moderate Republican was leading, but a more conservative opponent replaced her, and went on to lose.  Sounds something like the Nevada, Colorado, and Delaware Senate races, doesn't it?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #437 on: May 24, 2011, 10:17:16 PM »


Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.


Nah. Hochul has to move north to pick up the now unnecessary earmuffs. I actually think Slaughterhouse and Higgins get fairly compact districts this time around; there's little reason to give them much else. Hochul gets about what she has now.

What is likely to happen is that Higgins' district stays the same and Slaughter gets a district that is essentially all of Monroe County.  Hochul will then get a district that is half of Erie and all of Niagara. 
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jfern
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« Reply #438 on: May 24, 2011, 10:18:08 PM »

Wow, this is big. This was one of only 2 districts in the state that Democrats hadn't manage to win yet.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #439 on: May 24, 2011, 10:22:25 PM »

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Bless his heart.
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Mississippi Political Freak
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« Reply #440 on: May 24, 2011, 10:24:42 PM »

Wow, this is big. This was one of only 2 districts in the state that Democrats hadn't manage to win yet.

So what's the other one?  Thanks!
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #441 on: May 24, 2011, 10:26:41 PM »

Wow, this is big. This was one of only 2 districts in the state that Democrats hadn't manage to win yet.

So what's the other one?  Thanks!
Peter King's district probably.
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ag
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« Reply #442 on: May 24, 2011, 10:28:03 PM »

Wow, this is big. This was one of only 2 districts in the state that Democrats hadn't manage to win yet.

So what's the other one?  Thanks!

The only district that hasn't been democratic at least briefly since 2005 is NY-3 (King). There are still 6 other Republicans who won in 2010, of course.  The seniority of NY Republican delegation is rather underwhelming Smiley))
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cinyc
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« Reply #443 on: May 24, 2011, 10:29:15 PM »

Genesee County is apparently waiting for all the bags of votes to get to the county building before releasing any results.  Erie is the only other county with part out.
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ag
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« Reply #444 on: May 24, 2011, 10:52:54 PM »

Most of Genesee is in - Corwin gained a net of about 400 votes.
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cinyc
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« Reply #445 on: May 24, 2011, 10:53:26 PM »

Hochul's lead is down to 4.6% with just some of Genesee and Erie out.  Like I said, the final margin will likely be closer to 5 points than 6 - not that that matters much.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #446 on: May 24, 2011, 11:36:33 PM »


Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.


Nah. Hochul has to move north to pick up the now unnecessary earmuffs. I actually think Slaughterhouse and Higgins get fairly compact districts this time around; there's little reason to give them much else. Hochul gets about what she has now.

What is likely to happen is that Higgins' district stays the same and Slaughter gets a district that is essentially all of Monroe County.  Hochul will then get a district that is half of Erie and all of Niagara. 

That, plus Genesee, Wyoming, and Orleans. The PVI here depends on how many of the Buffalo blacks Higgins takes, and if he drops Chataqua. Hochul will be in a Republican PVI district without any of those Buffalo blacks.

The old plan probably gave Higgins all of Buffalo and all of Niagara Falls while Lee got all the surrounding areas.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #447 on: May 24, 2011, 11:38:44 PM »


Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.


Nah. Hochul has to move north to pick up the now unnecessary earmuffs. I actually think Slaughterhouse and Higgins get fairly compact districts this time around; there's little reason to give them much else. Hochul gets about what she has now.

What is likely to happen is that Higgins' district stays the same and Slaughter gets a district that is essentially all of Monroe County.  Hochul will then get a district that is half of Erie and all of Niagara. 

That, plus Genesee, Wyoming, and Orleans. The PVI here depends on how many of the Buffalo blacks Higgins takes, and if he drops Chataqua. Hochul will be in a Republican PVI district without any of those Buffalo blacks.

The old plan probably gave Higgins all of Buffalo and all of Niagara Falls while Lee got all the surrounding areas.

Genesee, Wyoming, and Orleans would go to Reed's district while he would lose half of his portion of Monroe to Slaughter. 
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krazen1211
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« Reply #448 on: May 24, 2011, 11:43:44 PM »


Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.


Nah. Hochul has to move north to pick up the now unnecessary earmuffs. I actually think Slaughterhouse and Higgins get fairly compact districts this time around; there's little reason to give them much else. Hochul gets about what she has now.

What is likely to happen is that Higgins' district stays the same and Slaughter gets a district that is essentially all of Monroe County.  Hochul will then get a district that is half of Erie and all of Niagara. 

That, plus Genesee, Wyoming, and Orleans. The PVI here depends on how many of the Buffalo blacks Higgins takes, and if he drops Chataqua. Hochul will be in a Republican PVI district without any of those Buffalo blacks.

The old plan probably gave Higgins all of Buffalo and all of Niagara Falls while Lee got all the surrounding areas.

Genesee, Wyoming, and Orleans would go to Reed's district while he would lose half of his portion of Monroe to Slaughter. 

Niagara + half of Erie is not enough population; you can't put all 3 of those fully into the Reed district. You have to pick up at least a piece of Orleans to get somewhere from there, unless they start adding counties like Cattaraugus to the Higgins district, in which case Hochul's 'half' of Erie becomes bigger.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #449 on: May 24, 2011, 11:51:54 PM »


Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.


Nah. Hochul has to move north to pick up the now unnecessary earmuffs. I actually think Slaughterhouse and Higgins get fairly compact districts this time around; there's little reason to give them much else. Hochul gets about what she has now.

What is likely to happen is that Higgins' district stays the same and Slaughter gets a district that is essentially all of Monroe County.  Hochul will then get a district that is half of Erie and all of Niagara. 

That, plus Genesee, Wyoming, and Orleans. The PVI here depends on how many of the Buffalo blacks Higgins takes, and if he drops Chataqua. Hochul will be in a Republican PVI district without any of those Buffalo blacks.

The old plan probably gave Higgins all of Buffalo and all of Niagara Falls while Lee got all the surrounding areas.

Genesee, Wyoming, and Orleans would go to Reed's district while he would lose half of his portion of Monroe to Slaughter. 

Niagara + half of Erie is not enough population; you can't put all 3 of those fully into the Reed district. You have to pick up at least a piece of Orleans to get somewhere from there, unless they start adding counties like Cattaraugus to the Higgins district, in which case Hochul's 'half' of Erie becomes bigger.

Niagara plus half of Erie is about 300,000 votes and 660,000 people.
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