The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.

[Sam Spade]

Is this the most pathetic sex scandal ever or what?

Unless there's more

There is always more.  Politicians never cease to amaze me with their idiocy.

[Sam Spade]

Anything can happen in special elections, but this is one of those seats that is more Republican locally than its PVI suggests (I personally think it's more Republican than NY-29, but that's just me - in theory the CD was designed to not go Democratic). 

Otherwise, the county chairs will select who gets the nomination, in typical NY fashion, so there won't be any silly primaries going on.  Could be third-party interference, of course.

[Sam Spade]

it'd be interesting for any Republican or Democratic State Senator to run for this race, because if they won, they could throw off the balance of the State Senate.

Kennedy is the only State Senate Democrat even close to the district, his home isn't in NY-26, and I don't even think any of his State Senate district is in NY-26/

California State Senator Tom McClintock got elected to a House seat hundreds of miles from his district.

It was also very GOP-leaning CD.

[Sam Spade]

The problem, and the article notes this, is that the Tea Party isn't going to get the Conservative line if Corwin is chosen (as opposed to Maziarz or Robach).  Which leaves them trying to either create their own line again or buy the Independence party line (as that seems to be the way to get it these days)

Seems to me like the Tea Party people are just asleep at the switch.

[Sam Spade]

The problem, and the article notes this, is that the Tea Party isn't going to get the Conservative line if Corwin is chosen (as opposed to Maziarz or Robach).  Which leaves them trying to either create their own line again or buy the Independence party line (as that seems to be the way to get it these days)

Seems to me like the Tea Party people are just asleep at the switch.

This will probably be the first election testing how buyable the Green Party line is, too.  It will likely be the first major election in which that party has automatic ballot access since 2002.

One would think that the Tea Party would be smart enough to understand that it is unlikely to be successful getting its point across to its people through the Green Party, but what do I know...

[Sam Spade]

3200 signatures in 12 days would be rather impressive, though not impossible.

[Sam Spade]

Since it sounds like the Conservative Party is happy with Corwin, don't expect this to go anywhere.  Corwin will probably get the Independence line too.

She probably has the money to buy it (another reason why she was nominated). 

[Sam Spade]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0311/Cuomo_calls_New_York_special_.html?showall

Special election = May 24.

[Sam Spade]

Blast from the past, Kev.

Davis' high support may just be indicative of low turnout, no?

That's what I thought, too, but, as someone who's personally met Jack Davis --- I don't know. I think he might be a cult leader.


Don't know how long I'll stick around here, Lewis/BRTD. There seems to be more hacks than there was when I left, and I didn't think that was possible. Also, I'm extremely left-wing now. Probably equal to BRTD. Suck on that, AMERICA

You can be whatever you want to be politically, but if you start making polls on suburbs, expect for me to call for your banishment.

[Sam Spade]

Blast from the past, Kev.

Davis' high support may just be indicative of low turnout, no?

That's what I thought, too, but, as someone who's personally met Jack Davis --- I don't know. I think he might be a cult leader.


Don't know how long I'll stick around here, Lewis/BRTD. There seems to be more hacks than there was when I left, and I didn't think that was possible. Also, I'm extremely left-wing now. Probably equal to BRTD. Suck on that, AMERICA

You can be whatever you want to be politically, but if you start making polls on suburbs, expect for me to call for your banishment.

No, I live in Providence now, so still no suburbs for me either, but my personality hasn't changed.  I'm not sure I ever created a single poll in the 5500 posts or so I racked up.

Based on the general statistics, you've made 9.

I'm actually not too different from your standard urban liberal now. And I'm sure you're not surprised to know I now live in Minneapolis, near Uptown.

OK, less than 1% of my total posts then!

And no, I'm not surprised. I still get hit hard with gas prices for driving down 95 to see my parents at the other end of the state -- so I have some of the same problems as suburbanites. Seriously, I think our President is awesome, but even Tim "Wonderbread" Pawlenty could beat him with $4.09 gas.

Tim Pawlenty couldn't win the nomination even with $4.09 gas.

My best guess at this point (and it is a guess at this point) is that Obama is more likely to lose re-election than win it, but it's probably 55-45 against at this point, so I wouldn't consider it an important difference.  I have pretty much always been negative towards Obama since January 2008 (and would have still supported Hillary before then), but this is the rational observation based on the below.

By looking at the economic figures, the numbers suggest that GDP will go negative either 4thQ this year or 1stQ next year with QE2 ending in June.  If the Fed does decide to pump more money to keep this from occurring, it will likely continue to go into commodity speculation, so the game will be to try and keep commodities from shooting the moon without the recession occurring.  Not that this is "easy" to do, but I suspect it will be done because my best guess is that the GOP is more likely than not to nominate someone who is not Fed-friendly (which would be perhaps the first positive thing out of the GOP in quite a while if so).

The simple point, though, is that even when the Fed does this, it is very tricky, and can backfire as it did in 1980.

FWIW, I said that I wouldn't want to win the Presidency in 2008, and quite frankly I wouldn't want to win it in 2012 either.  So there.

[Sam Spade]

Should we post results in a new thread ?

PS: Have polls already closed in NY-26 ?

I don't think a new thread is warranted.

[Sam Spade]

It's over folks.