The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.

[Mr.Phips]

If we win this, does it count as payback for Scott Brown?

No, that would require something far more drastic, like a Senator Matheson or Freudenthal.

Yep.  I have long said that a Republican winning a Senate seat in Masachussetts would be like a Democrat winning Orrin Hatch's seat. 

[Mr.Phips]

It wouldn't be too hard to give Slaughter a solely Rochester based district, and Hochul and Higgins just splitting Buffalo.

That's probably what will happen.  In turn, Reed will be shored up by taking the rural counties now in NY-26 and losing most of Monroe county to Slaughter. 

[Mr.Phips]

Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

It's definitely not a spoiler election because Davis wasn't running on a Tea Party platform, he was running on a protectionist/anti-Paul Ryan plan platform.

lol though read Red State's spin on the election here: http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/05/24/the-gop-loss-in-new-york-was-about-new-york-not-paul-ryan/

Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.

The deal is that an Upstate Republican and a Downstate Democrat will get the axe.  No way Cuomo and the Assembly Democrats would allow both eliminated seats to be Democratic ones.  Especially considering that it will be Democratic seats being cut in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Missouri.

[Mr.Phips]

Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.

Nah. Hochul has to move north to pick up the now unnecessary earmuffs. I actually think Slaughterhouse and Higgins get fairly compact districts this time around; there's little reason to give them much else. Hochul gets about what she has now.

What is likely to happen is that Higgins' district stays the same and Slaughter gets a district that is essentially all of Monroe County.  Hochul will then get a district that is half of Erie and all of Niagara. 

[Mr.Phips]

Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.

Nah. Hochul has to move north to pick up the now unnecessary earmuffs. I actually think Slaughterhouse and Higgins get fairly compact districts this time around; there's little reason to give them much else. Hochul gets about what she has now.

What is likely to happen is that Higgins' district stays the same and Slaughter gets a district that is essentially all of Monroe County.  Hochul will then get a district that is half of Erie and all of Niagara. 

That, plus Genesee, Wyoming, and Orleans. The PVI here depends on how many of the Buffalo blacks Higgins takes, and if he drops Chataqua. Hochul will be in a Republican PVI district without any of those Buffalo blacks.

The old plan probably gave Higgins all of Buffalo and all of Niagara Falls while Lee got all the surrounding areas.

Genesee, Wyoming, and Orleans would go to Reed's district while he would lose half of his portion of Monroe to Slaughter. 

[Mr.Phips]

Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.

Nah. Hochul has to move north to pick up the now unnecessary earmuffs. I actually think Slaughterhouse and Higgins get fairly compact districts this time around; there's little reason to give them much else. Hochul gets about what she has now.

What is likely to happen is that Higgins' district stays the same and Slaughter gets a district that is essentially all of Monroe County.  Hochul will then get a district that is half of Erie and all of Niagara. 

That, plus Genesee, Wyoming, and Orleans. The PVI here depends on how many of the Buffalo blacks Higgins takes, and if he drops Chataqua. Hochul will be in a Republican PVI district without any of those Buffalo blacks.

The old plan probably gave Higgins all of Buffalo and all of Niagara Falls while Lee got all the surrounding areas.

Genesee, Wyoming, and Orleans would go to Reed's district while he would lose half of his portion of Monroe to Slaughter. 

Niagara + half of Erie is not enough population; you can't put all 3 of those fully into the Reed district. You have to pick up at least a piece of Orleans to get somewhere from there, unless they start adding counties like Cattaraugus to the Higgins district, in which case Hochul's 'half' of Erie becomes bigger.

Niagara plus half of Erie is about 300,000 votes and 660,000 people.