The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.

[MaxQue]

Niagara isn't going to be close at all - it's well over a 1000 vote lead for Hochul at this point. But where are Orleans and Geneese? I know, nobody cares anymore, but I do )

Niagara is almost all in (not in the AP results, but in the BoE-level results I've been tracking), as is Erie and Monroe.  The two counties that are out plus Wyoming are among the most Republican in the district.  So it should tighten - but likely not by much.  My guess is Hochul will win by 4 or 5, not 6.

All of Orleans came out at the same time, and Hochul still leads by 6, by the way.

[MaxQue]

Anyone know why the amount of precincts the AP lists and what the county board of elections differs?

Guess - they're using the precinct count for general elections and there were fewer actual precincts in the special to save money.

On Niagara County result page:
"56 of 56 (100%) machines reporting (100 total districts)".

To save costs, I suppose than more than one precinct uses the same voting machine.

EDIT: cinyc, do you know if absentees are counted as a precinct or not, on election day or another day?
Or each county decides?

[MaxQue]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0524.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Caution, updated slower than counties' websites.

Wyoming is fully out.
Corwin 3143
Hochul 2212
Davis 675
Murphy 84

Which gives a 51-36 win for Corwin in Wyoming Co.

I'll repeat my question, since it was added through an edit, so people probably missed it.
Does election night results include the absentees?

[MaxQue]

I think the spoiler effect isn't very existent here, Corwin's favorables were terrible, that would indicate to me that it wasn't all about Davis pulling votes away from her. We also don't know just what percentage of Davis votes weren't going to support her at all, it may have been enough where the result was not spoiled.

You're also forgetting that Corwin spent most of the campaign attacking Davis rather than Hocul.  It's probably one of the reasons her favorability with his voters was so bad, and why Hocul was able to run her campaign comparatively unscathed.

Well, there are reasons why Republicans decided to attack the Independant, not the Democrat.
I suppose. That's assuming than the NY Republican Party had good strategist, a thing than I doubt, given their current results. They can only win seats in a outside wave context like 2010, but seems unable to win an election in normal, neutral conditions.

As which side the voters are swinging on Medicare, we will see in 2012, I suppose.