The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.

[cinyc]

Good, another Congressional special election coming up. Jackpot week.

If I remember correctly, New York's governor need not call a separate special election if he does not want to.  The seat could remain vacant until the November general election.  Governor Paterson held Massa's NY-29 vacant until the November 2010 election, even though Massa resigned in March 2010.

There must be something in the water that makes Upstate Congressmen do dumb things when they go to Washington.

[cinyc]

Remain vacant until Jan, 2013?  That would be absolutely amazing.  I truly doubt this would possibly happen.

Pretty sure the courts would find that illegal.

I didn't say January 2013.  I said the next general election, which, in New York State, would arguably be in November 2011, according to the State Board of Elections own political calendar.

A group of voters did sue Governor Paterson after he initially refused to order a special election for seat recently vacated by Congressman Massa after his own sex scandal.   In the interim, Paterson mandated that the special election to fill the NY-29 vacancy would be held on regular election day 2010.  The seat was vacant for 6 months.  The federal judge ruled that that was not unconstitutional.  

I think the lawsuit would likely have been successful had Paterson decided to hold the seat vacant for 20 months instead of 8.

I'd also expect a special election sooner than that.   Governor Paterson did not want to hold a special election for Democrat Massa's seat because it would likely have been won by a Republican.   This is a vacancy in a Republican-held seat.  When Republican-held seats were vacated during the past two years, a special election was held almost immediately after the seat became vacant.  And New York's governor is still a Democrat.

[cinyc]

A Republican politician in a sex scandal?
whoda thunk?

I know it's not as if Democrats are ever involved in any.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Hart

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerry_Studs

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_edwards

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_clinton

None of those guys actually resigned, so if they didn't resign it never hurt them and never happened.  David Vitter is still standing, its all just tabloid gossip, lol

Gary Hart dropped out of the 1988 presidential race after his affair became public.  

The media didn't expose John Edwards' infidelities until after he was no longer a candidate for office.

[cinyc]

A Republican politician in a sex scandal?
whoda thunk?

I know it's not as if Democrats are ever involved in any.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Hart

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerry_Studs

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_edwards

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_clinton

None of those guys actually resigned, so if they didn't resign it never hurt them and never happened.  David Vitter is still standing, its all just tabloid gossip, lol

Gary Hart dropped out of the 1988 presidential race after his affair became public.  

The media didn't expose John Edwards' infidelities until after he was no longer a candidate for office.

But Hart was running for a new office, he never resigned his seat because of the scandal.  He just lost the election.  Should have waited until the next election and let the voters decide.

Hart didn't have a seat to resign from at the time - he didn't run for Senate a third time and held no elective office at the time the scandal broke.  Hart withdrew from the Presidential race immediately after the scandal broke.  He tried to reenter the race later, but got crushed in New Hampshire.

More recently, New York Congressman Eric Massa, a Democrat, resigned after news of his homosexual sexual harassment scandal broke.   Democratic New York Governor Spitzer resigned when the "Client Number 9" hooker scandal broke.  And New Jersey Governor McGreevey, also a Democrat, resigned after it was learned he was cheating on his wife with a man who he had put in charge of state Homeland Security despite being totally unqualified for the job.

Sex scandals affect both parties.  Some resign.  Some do not.

[cinyc]

The problem, and the article notes this, is that the Tea Party isn't going to get the Conservative line if Corwin is chosen (as opposed to Maziarz or Robach).  Which leaves them trying to either create their own line again or buy the Independence party line (as that seems to be the way to get it these days)

Seems to me like the Tea Party people are just asleep at the switch.

This will probably be the first election testing how buyable the Green Party line is, too.  It will likely be the first major election in which that party has automatic ballot access since 2002.

[cinyc]

The problem, and the article notes this, is that the Tea Party isn't going to get the Conservative line if Corwin is chosen (as opposed to Maziarz or Robach).  Which leaves them trying to either create their own line again or buy the Independence party line (as that seems to be the way to get it these days)

Seems to me like the Tea Party people are just asleep at the switch.

This will probably be the first election testing how buyable the Green Party line is, too.  It will likely be the first major election in which that party has automatic ballot access since 2002.

One would think that the Tea Party would be smart enough to understand that it is unlikely to be successful getting its point across to its people through the Green Party, but what do I know...

I wasn't necessarily thinking the Tea Party would try to buy the line (though you can't rule it out).  Instead, I was thinking it will be interesting to see if the Greens cross-endorse the Democrat or run their own candidate, as their gubernatorial candidate claimed they would often try to do if they won major party status.

[cinyc]

Capital (sic) Tonight really wants this TEA party challenge to happen, don't they?

Do you know many political junkies who don't?

Yes.  Republicans who want to keep the seat.

[cinyc]

If the Green party endorsed the Democrat, that would certainly be news, since they tend to either run their own candidate, or no one.

Well, they have to petition to get on the ballot in most other states.  There's no sense petitioning to get on the ballot to cross-endorse someone.  Also, most states don't have fusion voting, like New York.  Minor parties can and do cross-endorse in New York - often.   The Independence Party is often up for grabs.

I guess looking back to what the NY Greens did in 1998-2002 might be informative - but I'm drawing a total blank about whether they cross-endorsed back then.  I do recall them holding a primary at least once.

[cinyc]

The Green Party has never had automatic ballot access before, so they always had to nominate their own candidate.

The New York Green Party had automatic ballot access from 1999-2002, after "Grandpa Munster" Al Lewis received enough votes in the 1998 gubernatorial race to put them on the ballot.

[cinyc]

From what I understand reading about the necessary law changes before today, although this law change only applies to special elections, the legislature is looking into changing our regular primary date as part of a separate bill.  The federal military ballot law makes holding primaries on the first Tuesday after Labor Day very difficult.  New York needed a waiver last cycle.

[cinyc]

From what I understand reading about the necessary law changes before today, although this law change only applies to special elections, the legislature is looking into changing our regular primary date as part of a separate bill.  The federal military ballot law makes holding primaries on the first Tuesday after Labor Day very difficult.  New York needed a waiver last cycle.

That is true, though part of the reason the waver was needed was due to the late party switching and jumping around that went with Paladino getting the Conservative line after Lazio won the Conservative Primary.```

I hope it doesn't happen.  August isn't the time to be holding primaries.  Too many people are on vacation.  There has to be a better way to get the military absentee ballots out on time.

[cinyc]

LOL, Jack Davis is now collecting signatures for a tea party run.

Good luck with that.  The petition requirements are strict and technical faults are usually held against a non-designated party person trying to get on the ballot (3,500 valid signatures in 12 days, properly witnessed, signed and in the proper format).  The TEA party isn't a major party in New York with automatic ballot access, which means anyone could claim to run on the "tea party" line by circulating petitions claiming as such and receiving enough valid signatures to get on the ballot.  That's what Davis is doing.

[cinyc]

Good luck with that.  The petition requirements are strict and technical faults are usually held against a non-designated party person trying to get on the ballot (3,500 valid signatures in 12 days, properly witnessed, signed and in the proper format).  The TEA party isn't a major party in New York with automatic ballot access, which means anyone could claim to run on the "tea party" line by circulating petitions claiming as such and receiving enough valid signatures to get on the ballot.  That's what Davis is doing.

Yeah I know that New York signature rules are tough, but Davis has promised to spend millions on this run so he could simply pay enough people to gather his signatures. Speaking of Davis, it looks like he's going after the racist vote.

You can spend thousands and still not get the needed number of signatures in such a short period. 

Davis isn't going after the racist vote - the Republican party is trying to destroy him before he even gets on the ballot.   Something Murkowski should have done in Alaska and Castle in Delaware, instead of ignoring their primary opponents.

Corwin has money, too, and she's certainly no Dede Scozzafava.  Corwin is the second-most conservative Assemblyman and very much in the good graces of the Conservative Party.  I just don't think any minor-party candidate has a realistic shot, regardless of the money he or she spends.  And I doubt he'd peel enough votes away from Corwin to let the still-unnamed Democrat win. 

Maybe Davis can buy the Green Party line, should it be up for sale.

[cinyc]

The Green Party line isn't for sale.  They've named Ian L. Murphy as their party's candidate in the race.  He's the prankster who called Wisconsin Governor Walker claiming to be David Koch.

[cinyc]

I don't know about the Upstate, but on Long Island the two county clerks are, if not household names, still reasonably known by the populace.

Long Island's counties are twice the size of congressional districts, so, yeah. Obviously not comparable.

Erie County is the size of more than one CD, too - and, unlike Long Island, at the heart of the area's major TV market.  I'm sure the Erie County Clerk gets much more TV face time than her Long Island counterparts - though that's not saying much.  I couldn't name the county clerk of either Long Island county - but I don't live there.

[cinyc]

When the polls close at 9 PM on Tuesday (ET), what are good websites to view results?

uselectionatlas.org
The AP will likely have results, too.

New York election results reporting stinks.   Results are reported by county, who may or may not separately report county results on their websites.  There is no state aggregator.

The NY-26 County reporting websites (Let me know if I missed any counties):
Erie County Board of Elections
Genesee County Board of Elections
Livingston County Board of Elections
Monroe County Board of Elections
Niagara County Board of Elections
Orleans County Website
Wyoming County Board of Elections

[cinyc]

http://www.buffalonews.com/incoming/article432430.ece
Funny stuff.

That's standard operating procedure in potentially close New York races, for some bizarre reason.  If Corwin didn't do it, Hochul probably would have.

[cinyc]

Would Hochul had filed it in her own office?

She or the Democratic party would have had to get an order from a court which, yes, would have ended up getting filed in her own office (along with the relevant officials in the other counties).  Note- I'm assuming the order required it be served on the Erie and other County Clerks, thought the article doesn't expressly say so, just boards of elections and sheriffs.

This typically happens in races thought to be close - in the old days, to make sure that the old lever voting machines were properly impounded in case of a recount.  I really don't understand why it's necessary.  Results won't actually be certified for week or two at the county level, let alone by the state.

[cinyc]

Have the polls closed yet or do we have to wait until 9?

Polls in New York close at 9PM.  Given our archaic reporting system, we'll probably be waiting longer than that for results.

[cinyc]

First precinct from Livingston:

Representative in Congress (26th District)
Vote for 01
1 of 40 machines reporting(40 total districts)
Kathy Courtney Hochul
31
Jane L. Corwin
65
Ian L. Murphy
4
Jack Davis
7

And 9 precincts from MonroeNiagara:
Percent
Votes
REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS 26TH DISTRICT_ (Vote for 1)
Congressional District 026
9 of 56 (16%) machines reporting (100 total districts)
P
Kathy Courtney Hochul
1,681
44.32%
D
P
Jane L Corwin
1,632
43.03%
D
P
Jack Davis
461
12.15%
D
P
Ian L Murphy
19
0.50%
D
3,793

[cinyc]

Should we post results in a new thread ?

PS: Have polls already closed in NY-26 ?

Yeah - a few precincts are in.

I don't think we need a new thread for a congressional special election.

[cinyc]

3 precincts from Erie:
D    HOCHUL, KATHY COURTNEY    1,189    51%
   W    HOCHUL, KATHY COURTNEY    112    5%
        HOCHUL, KATHY COURTNEY  Totals    1,301    56%
   R    CORWIN, JANE L.    702    30%
   C    CORWIN, JANE L.    127    5%
   I    CORWIN, JANE L.    38    2%
        CORWIN, JANE L.  Totals    867    37%
   G    MURPHY, IAN L.    14    1%
   TE    DAVIS, JACK    140    6%
        Office Totals    2,322    100%

[cinyc]

Based on BoE data, I have it at Hochul 47.6%, Corwin 42.2%, Davis 9%, Hochul leading by 1,462 votes.

[cinyc]

Unless there's some real surprise in the three rural counties that I don't have data for, I don't see how anyone but Hochul wins this.

[cinyc]

The PPP poll with Hochul+6 seems to be on a good track too.

It seems they now are better with polling special elections.

Given what's out, it will probably be closer than that.  But not enough for Corwin to win or even credibly call for a recount.