The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

If we win this, does it count as payback for Scott Brown?

No.

Charles Djou.

That comparison really can't be applied to NY-26 because Davis takes away votes nearly equally from Corwin and Hochul. There was a clear split field between Case and Hanabusa where both candidates split the Democratic vote nearly equally. Notice that Hochul has better favorable ratings than Corwin and that voters only barely prefer a Republican over a Democrat, I think Hochul would be leading Corwin even with Davis out of the trace.

If anything, if Davis voters were forced to pick between Corwin and Hochul, I'd expect them to chose Hochul by a decent margin.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Would you like the new Congressman from our district to caucus with the Democrats or the Republicans in Congress?
Democrats 39%
Republicans 41%
Not Sure 20%

Do you have more faith in Barack Obama or Congressional Republicans to lead the country in the right direction?
Barack Obama 44%
Congressional Republicans 45%
Not Sure 11%

Ouch...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Kathy Hochul 47%
Jane Corwin 41%
Jack Davis 11%

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Hochul really needs to improve in Niagara.

Taking a look at the precincts in Niagara that are in it looks like Hochul is outperforming Obama.

Where are you finding the detailed precinct results for Niagara?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Livingston is close, which is bad news for Corwin. I wonder if some of these rural ultra GOP counties are like the heavily Republican counties in Central and Western PA, all the dems come in first then the Republicans overwhelm them ending with GOP wins by 2-1 and 3-1 margins. 

Livingston isn't an ultra GOP county though, it gave Obama 45% of the vote so these current results are consistent with what the results are showing in Monroe and Erie.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Apparently results for Lockport and North Tonawanda aren't in yet for Niagara County. I don't see how Corwin could possibly win if she's doing that poorly in her home base areas of Niagara (I'm pretty sure she represents Lockport and the outlying areas in Albany).  

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

It's definitely not a spoiler election because Davis wasn't running on a Tea Party platform, he was running on a protectionist/anti-Paul Ryan plan platform.

lol though read Red State's spin on the election here: http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/05/24/the-gop-loss-in-new-york-was-about-new-york-not-paul-ryan/

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

NY-20 happened when Democrats were still leading the GOP in Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat polls and when the stimulus was really popular. We should have held NY-20 because of the national climate in early 2009.

NY-23, yet again, was entirely different. The district is much more favorable to Obama and was trending our way for years. It's of a totally different character. On top of that, there was a real spoiler effect with some uninformed voters still voting for Scozzafava, Hoffman ran a terrible and pretty extremist teabagger campaign that wasn't going to fly in NY-23. PPP got the race wrong because they used a wrong turnout model.