The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.

[Smash255]

Record time.

[Smash255]

Its pretty much assured that more is involved especially since craigslist dating often goes hand and hand with escort services, etc.


As a side note, anyone up on taking any bets that in their coverage that Fox News will label Lee as a Democrat?

[Smash255]

it'd be interesting for any Republican or Democratic State Senator to run for this race, because if they won, they could throw off the balance of the State Senate.

Kennedy is the only State Senate Democrat even close to the district, his home isn't in NY-26, and I don't even think any of his State Senate district is in NY-26/

[Smash255]

From what I understand reading about the necessary law changes before today, although this law change only applies to special elections, the legislature is looking into changing our regular primary date as part of a separate bill.  The federal military ballot law makes holding primaries on the first Tuesday after Labor Day very difficult.  New York needed a waiver last cycle.

That is true, though part of the reason the waver was needed was due to the late party switching and jumping around that went with Paladino getting the Conservative line after Lazio won the Conservative Primary.```

[Smash255]

If Hochul wins, how will that affect redistricting?

If Slaughter retires its easy, if not its a little more complicated.

[Smash255]

If Hochul wins, how will that affect redistricting?

If Slaughter retires its easy, if not its a little more complicated.

The second hypothesis is far more interesting.

I assume the Dems could very well dismantle her district. On paper they will lose a Democratic incumbent, but in reality they will be dismantling a Republican district.

Also have to keep in mind Cuomo's veto threat to any Gerrymandered maps, especially considering what is going on in the State Senate with Skelos backing down from the agreement prior to Election Day.

[Smash255]

Hochul 46.5%
Corwim 42.1%
Davis 10.5%
Murphy 0.9%

[Smash255]

Hochul really needs to improve in Niagara.

Taking a look at the precincts in Niagara that are in it looks like Hochul is outperforming Obama.

[Smash255]

Hochul really needs to improve in Niagara.

Taking a look at the precincts in Niagara that are in it looks like Hochul is outperforming Obama.

Where are you finding the detailed precinct results for Niagara?

From the Niagara website

http://nts.ntsdata.com/eSuiteReports/ncboelive/se11/r102_dist.htm

[Smash255]

Wow, the Erie numbers are brutal for Corwin. Not sure how she makes up this deficit, especially if Hochul does as well in the other rural counties as she is doing in Livingston.

Agreed.  Corwin's only hope is for every single Erie precinct in to be from Amherst, but even looking at what is left in Niagara, even if all of Erie that is in is Amherst, that might not be enough.

[Smash255]

Anyone know why the amount of precincts the AP lists and what the county board of elections differs?

[Smash255]

Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

With Corwin's horrific numbers among Davis supporters I really don't see this as a spoiler election.

[Smash255]

Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

It's definitely not a spoiler election because Davis wasn't running on a Tea Party platform, he was running on a protectionist/anti-Paul Ryan plan platform.

lol though read Red State's spin on the election here: http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/05/24/the-gop-loss-in-new-york-was-about-new-york-not-paul-ryan/

Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.

This seat is CONSIDERABLY  more Republican and conservative than NY-20 and NY-23

[Smash255]

Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

It's definitely not a spoiler election because Davis wasn't running on a Tea Party platform, he was running on a protectionist/anti-Paul Ryan plan platform.

lol though read Red State's spin on the election here: http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/05/24/the-gop-loss-in-new-york-was-about-new-york-not-paul-ryan/

Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.

This seat is CONSIDERABLY  more Republican and conservative than NY-20 and NY-23

By a whopping 4 points.  IIRC, you won both those elections by more than that

Obama won NY-23 by  5.22, McCain won NY-26 by 5.72.  we are talking about a difference larger than the difference between NC & SC, or roughly between Ohio & Georgia.