UK AV Referendum Poll

[afleitch]

No.

AV entrenches and indeed may even worsen the disproportion that exists between votes and seats. I will only support STV in multimember constituencies.

[afleitch]

See, and I think the whole point of holding this specific referendum is to take meaningful electoral reform off the agenda for a generation no matter what happens in the vote. It's a win-win for the Tories' Cameron wing.
And of course you don't even get to vote on the related stuff about less variation and a few fewer seats...

It's being sabotaged by all sides. The Labour lord's insertion of the 40% turnout rule has killed it already/

To resurrect an old saying from '79 "If you don't vote you are voting No'

[afleitch]

Well, everything's gone through now. It was nice having a relatively civilised and relatively non-partisan procedure for drawing constituency boundaries and I think we're all eventually going to miss it, irrespective of party. Precedent set, era ended, regrettably.

Thank goodness for devolution I get my 73 constituencies just as I like them

[afleitch]

I know this is exactly what I'm expected to say, but...

Hurry up and copy Australia's parliamentary and electoral systems, Britain. You'll like it, I promise.

A degree of federalisation wouldn't go a miss

[afleitch]

AV NOW? THEN STV NEVER. NO TO AV

[afleitch]

I just wish the Yes camp would drop this myth that AV is somehow more proportional.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8506306.stm - Those results are way more proportional.

The problem is both sides tend to be peddling half-truths. I can't back AV because it's not proportional; if it's not STV on the table, I'll stick with FPTP where 'winner takes all' at least makes a resemblence of sense.

[afleitch]

I just wish the Yes camp would drop this myth that AV is somehow more proportional.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8506306.stm - Those results are way more proportional.

The problem is both sides tend to be peddling half-truths. I can't back AV because it's not proportional; if it's not STV on the table, I'll stick with FPTP where 'winner takes all' at least makes a resemblence of sense.

Exactly my point. FPTP just makes the most sense really, if we're going to stay un-proportional.

Although, if MMP is good enough for Scotland and Wales, and has produced quite stable governments in both assemblies, why isn't it good enough for the rest of the UK? It's been shown to work. AV is unproven (on an national level, before someone says "Oh, but it's used for leadership elections!").

I think MMP in the UK would require even larger seats than are being proposed; perhaps something like a reduction to 400 constituencies and 200 top-ups. I'd prefer STV in Scotland even though it would hurt the Tories who in the council elections were transfer repellant.

[afleitch]

Although, if MMP is good enough for Scotland and Wales, and has produced quite stable governments in both assemblies

As mentioned already () MMP has not produced stability in Wales (indeed instability has been worryingly common; I won't bore everyone with what happened four years ago again, but the first few years of the Assembly were an utter mess with the leaders of the two largest parties forced out within a very narrow period of time).

Is that 'a Wales' being used as a type of measurement again

[afleitch]

Well Tory MP's remember vote in rounds to eliminate leadership candidates, so the second stage is only voted on after the first round (i.e you don't preference at the beginning) and then the final two candidates are voted on by the membership.

[afleitch]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3475 -

So, only Angus-Reid still has Yes ahead, right? And we know their record...

#

It wil be very turnout based; which means that Scotland and Wales and to a greater extent Northern Ireland will be key. The momentum seems to be with the 'NO' camp.

[afleitch]

I'm going to spoil my ballot. I was tempted to do that anyway (I probably mentioned that a while back) but the crass stupidity of both official campaigns has helped to make up my mind. I'm not an eight year old and don't like being treated like one.

Do you want some juice and a biscuit?

[afleitch]

I'm going to spoil my ballot. I was tempted to do that anyway (I probably mentioned that a while back) but the crass stupidity of both official campaigns has helped to make up my mind. I'm not an eight year old and don't like being treated like one.

Do you want some juice and a biscuit?

Depends on the biscuit. Are there an custard creams left?

Yes. As long as you don't just lick the custard cream off and leave the biscuit. There are starving kids in Africa you know...

[afleitch]

Anyone checked out the Sky News AV calculator yet?

[afleitch]

Given that the Tory leadership would have murdered their own children to form a government (slight exaggeration) he could have held out for a bit better than a referendum on a voting system that he doesn't like anyway, but the lure of getting into one of those plush ministerial cares as soon as possible was what it was. I suspect that the disappointment of the election itself may have been a factor in that, but given the LibDem incompetence during that, it's hardly an excuse.

Doesn't the story go that the Liberals tried to hold out but that mean old Scotsman resigned before he was supposed to, so negotiations fell through?

From Charles Kennedy;

"I admit that this coalition wasn’t exactly my preferred option. I’ve always considered myself in the reforming, centre-left tradition, so a centre-right arrangement puts my compass in a spin … But those of us who genuinely wanted to explore other routes—from a rainbow coalition to a minority tory administration— were sunk when figures like David Blunkett and John Reid were so against it. I’m in no doubt that a sizeable swathe within Labour were happier in the luxury of opposition, knowing how hard economically things would be. Much of their outrage at coalition decisions they would have probably taken themselves is synthetic at best."

[afleitch]

@afleitch

No one's suggesting an alternative coalition could work - just that they should've held out for a better deal with the Tories before giving them one.

The got a good deal; of all the things they could have demanded this bloody referendum is what they chose.

[afleitch]

ComRes

NO 66%
YES 34%

[afleitch]

ICM
68% - NO
32% - YES

People aren't just telling Nick no, they're shouting it at him.

What are they telling Miliband?

[afleitch]

ICM
68% - NO
32% - YES

People aren't just telling Nick no, they're shouting it at him.

What are they telling Miliband?

Does anyone care what Miliband thinks of this?

Well he is one of the most vocal supporters of AV.

[afleitch]

So tomorrow the British will decide to remain under an unfair, undemocratic, primitive electoral system. Good for them.

It's worth noting that Harper wouldn't have got a majority monday if Canada used AV.

AV is less proportionate than FPTP; it's making a bad problem even worse. I want STV or a genuine proportional system.

[afleitch]

BREAKING: Yes campaign surges ahead on the final night!

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Those polls are always sweet

[afleitch]

Any list based systems, though, as Antonio seems to favor.....are absolutely awful IMO.

That's one issue I have with AMS in Scotland. While it allows for proportionality to an extent, it is a closed list.

Ironically, there were murmurings of moving towards STV at Holyrood if AV was adopted. That may be my only regret.

[afleitch]

@Antonio, I for one don't like FPTP, yet I have discovered that I like AV even less. It is (or has the potential to be) less proportional, even when people base their . Under AV the BNP hypothetically could poll 25% nationwide, but still win only 1 or 2 seats, because they'd be poisonous in terms of preferences. I can see a similar situation with the Greens or some more likable party. Australia seems to be the best case study.

A good example would be the Scottish Conservatives; the Conservatives could make a comeback but still be without seats under AV. Had the Holyrood election been under AV in 2007 (in the constituencies) the Tories are unlikely to have won any seats (they won 4) Playing around with the figures, the Tories could poll 30% in Scotland at Holyrood (I wish!) and still walk away 1 seat out of 73.

[afleitch]

@Antonio, I for one don't like FPTP, yet I have discovered that I like AV even less. It is (or has the potential to be) less proportional, even when people base their . Under AV the BNP hypothetically could poll 25% nationwide, but still win only 1 or 2 seats, because they'd be poisonous in terms of preferences. I can see a similar situation with the Greens or some more likable party. Australia seems to be the best case study.

A good example would be the Scottish Conservatives; the Conservatives could make a comeback but still be without seats under AV. Had the Holyrood election been under AV in 2007 (in the constituencies) the Tories are unlikely to have won any seats (they won 4) Playing around with the figures, the Tories could poll 30% in Scotland at Holyrood (I wish!) and still walk away 1 seat out of 73.

AV discourages a broad set of ideas and policies, bringing less choice for voters, in comparison to FPTP. It's awful.

It may even be worse than that. Let's says there's a seat where the 'big 3' stand and the BNP. BNP finish last, which is great, but their second preferences are counted (and perhaps only theirs) putting a candidate over the line. Whose vote is the elected MP going to try and court throughout the parliament and at the next campaign? 

[afleitch]

I voted No. Which was the first ballot I filled in.

(For the record I voted Conservative on the Glasgow regional list then for the SNP candidate in Rutherglen.)