why didn't Obama do as good as Mondale in MN 8?

[freepcrusher]

According to the Almanac of American Politics, Walter Mondale got 59 percent of the vote in Minnesota's 8th congressional district in 1984. Obama only got 53 percent of the vote in that district. Has the boundaries of the district changed since 1984?

[Guderian]

Exurban growth.

[Brittain33]

Walter Mondale was the perfect candidate for MN-8, while Obama was just good enough. The nexus of issues and parties has changed enough since 1984 that there are more people in the district who'd consider voting R on social issues, for example. Plus there must have been some deindustrialization. Plus some exurban growth.

[Dgov]

. . . Cause Walter Mondale was from Minnesota and Obama wasn't?

[freepcrusher]

Exurban growth.

not entirely true. Look at Arapahoe County, Colorado. Used to be hard-core GOP. Now its essentially a swing county due to exurbanification

[Alcon]

Exurban growth.

not entirely true. Look at Arapahoe County, Colorado. Used to be hard-core GOP. Now its essentially a swing county due to exurbanification

Rural northeastern Colorado is not rural Minnesota...and Aurora is not exurban Minnesota, although yeah, exurban Minnesota is more Republican than one would expect.

I think the better question is why a place like Arapahoe County, Colorado, votes so differently from suburban Minnesota.

[Nichlemn]

. . . Cause Walter Mondale was from Minnesota and Obama wasn't?

But Obama did a lot better in Minnesota overall (in absolute terms), so that isn't a complete explanation.

[Dgov]

. . . Cause Walter Mondale was from Minnesota and Obama wasn't?

But Obama did a lot better in Minnesota overall (in absolute terms), so that isn't a complete explanation.

Well, are we talking about how they did in the same borders, or same Congressional District?  I assume that MN-8 was smaller in 1984 than it is today, and Duluth comprised a much bigger portion of the district than it did now.

[freepcrusher]

i'm talking same congressional district. I'm not sure of what CD 8 looked like in the 80s. I know its always contained Duluth, but i'm not sure what else it contained back then.

[nclib]

In addition to what others have said, MN-8 is more economically liberal than socially liberal, and economics were a better predictor of presidential voting back then.

The boundaries have certainly changed each census, but they're probably similar enough for the voting results to be close to accurate.

This site has Minn historical CD maps.

[feeblepizza]

Modale was from Obama. Minnesota wasn't.

[ajc0918]

Modale was from Obama. Minnesota wasn't.

fixed:
Mondale was from Minnesota. Obama wasn't.

[Dgov]

i'm talking same congressional district. I'm not sure of what CD 8 looked like in the 80s. I know its always contained Duluth, but i'm not sure what else it contained back then.

I assume it didn't contain any of the Minneapolis Exurbs, which is the most Republican part of the District currently.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

i'm talking same congressional district. I'm not sure of what CD 8 looked like in the 80s. I know its always contained Duluth, but i'm not sure what else it contained back then.

I assume it didn't contain any of the Minneapolis Exurbs, which is the most Republican part of the District currently.

Those places didn't even exist at the time!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, places change, parties change. And sometimes parties do particularly well in some places and unusually badly - in the same places - in other elections, without either fitting into much of a longterm pattern (on this forum people are far too keen to fit everything into longterm patterns, which is unfortunate because it means people miss the actual longterm patterns). That's a general answer.

But in this case there happens to be a specific one as well; Mondale is from Minnesota and essentially ran as a 'labor Democrat' (for want of a better way of putting it. His appeal was significantly weaker than Obama's overall, but stronger in a couple of traditional industrial districts here and there; he also did a lot better in the Pittsburgh area and the central Appalachian coalfield.

[feeblepizza]

Modale was from Obama. Minnesota wasn't.

fixed:
Mondale was from Minnesota. Obama wasn't.

Thank you.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In addition to the lack of exurbs Duluth of the Iron Range made up a far larger percentage of the district back then.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In addition to the lack of exurbs Duluth of the Iron Range made up a far larger percentage of the district back then.

Absolutely as well as relatively, presumably? Or did depopulation start later than I've just assumed?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In addition to the lack of exurbs Duluth of the Iron Range made up a far larger percentage of the district back then.

Absolutely as well as relatively, presumably? Or did depopulation start later than I've just assumed?

Key word bolded. There were only 6000 more votes cast in St. Louis County in 2008 than in 1984 though.