PA-PPP: Rick Santorum is already toast (sort of)

[Tender Branson]

Santorum weak on the home front

If Rick Santorum's really going to run for President he'd better hope folks in other states respond more positively to him than the ones in Pennsylvania who know him best.

Just finished crunching the numbers on our first poll of 2011, which we'll start rolling out in full tomorrow. For now here's what we found on Santorum:

-Only 38% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to 44% with a negative one. His numbers are particularly bad with independents whose ratings of him break down 30/54.

-Santorum trails Barack Obama 48-40 in a hypothetical contest, despite the fact that Obama's approval numbers in Pennsylvania continue to be under water. Most striking are a 20 point advantage for Obama with independents and the fact that he pulls 79% of Democrats while only 72% of Republicans are committed to Santorum.

-Most worrisome for Santorum are his GOP primary numbers though. The 54% of home state Republicans with a favorable opinion of him is well behind the 64% who like Mike Huckabee and the 63% who like Sarah Palin, equal to the percentage who like Newt Gingrich, and just a hair above the 52% who like Mitt Romney. On the horse race question just 11% say Santorum would be their top choice as the party's nominee, putting him in 5th place behind those other four.

We've written a lot about how tepid Minnesota voters are toward Tim Pawlenty's candidacy but he's at least the top choice of Republicans in the state. Santorum doesn't even come close. Ultimately Pennsylvania is not likely to be real important to the GOP nomination process but Santorum needs voters in places like New Hampshire and Iowa to end up liking him better than the ones on the home front do.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/01/santorum-weak-on-home-front.html

[Tender Branson]

Phil's world collapsing in 3, 2, 1 ...

[Keystone Phil]

Just saw this elsewhere. 

Phil's world collapsing in 3, 2, 1 ...

No, not really. It's actually not surprising. I figure I can share a story on this subject...

As I was outside of Toomey's DC reception, I noticed Santorum working the lobby. The crowd around him was a respectable size and excited. I noticed this kid asking Santorum if he would get a picture with him because he wants to have one when he's President. Even Santorum was taken aback by the comment. No joke.

He's staffing up in Iowa so he's running but when I see a reaction like the one I saw today, I'm thinking there is something else to all of this.

[Yelnoc]

Just saw this elsewhere. 

Phil's world collapsing in 3, 2, 1 ...

No, not really. It's actually not surprising. I figure I can share a story on this subject...

As I was outside of Toomey's DC reception, I noticed Santorum working the lobby. The crowd around him was a respectable size and excited. I noticed this kid asking Santorum if he would get a picture with him because he wants to have one when he's President. Even Santorum was taken aback by the comment. No joke.

He's staffing up in Iowa so he's running but when I see a reaction like the one I saw today, I'm thinking there is something else to all of this.

Maybe he's running for Vice President?

[Keystone Phil]

Maybe he's running for Vice President?

Possibly

[Poundingtherock]

Prediction: Either Huckabee and Palin are leading the poll

Romney is fourth behind a third-place Newt.

Santorum trails the leader by double-digits (whether it's Palin or huckabee).

[Grumpier Than Thou]

If Rick Santorum can't even win the state that he's from, you're correct in saying he's toast.

[pbrower2a]

In view of his slide in popularity in Pennsylvania, it would seem that the more that people know about him, the less they like him.

[Tender Branson]

The real numbers are:

If the Republican candidates for President next year were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum who would you vote for?

Mike Huckabee ............................................... 21%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 18%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 16%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 14%
Rick Santorum ................................................ 11%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 6%
Ron Paul......................................................... 4%
Mitch Daniels .................................................. 1%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 8%

If the Republican candidates for President next year were just Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you vote for?

Mike Huckabee ............................................... 26%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 21%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 16%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 15%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 6%
Ron Paul......................................................... 5%
Mitch Daniels .................................................. 2%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_0110424.pdf

[TomC]

Well, I think we knew Santorum was going to have to improve his numbers over the course of the race. So will many of the other second tier candidates.

[California8429]

Maybe he's running for Vice President?

Possibly

I could see it more likely for a Cabinet position. That's a way to start a comeback that has a lot more teeth to it

[pbrower2a]

Maybe he's running for Vice President?

Possibly

I could see it more likely for a Cabinet position. That's a way to start a comeback that has a lot more teeth to it

Should President Obama lose, then the GOP will be able to get away with about anything with cabinet appointments because the shrunken minority in the House and the Democratic Party minority in a filibuster-proof Senate will be able to stop nothing other than Constitutional amendments.

Rick Santorum became a hatchet man in the Senate and did much of the dirty work of the GWB Administration, and that might have made him exceedingly unpopular in Pennsylvania after 2000.  He is effectively unelectable beyond a primary. But a hatchet man as a cabinet officer? 

[Thomas D]

I'm not saying this will happen but... If Santorum wins Iowa, or finshes a strong 2nd, he'll rocket to the front of the pack in PA.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Did Santorum decline re-election in 2006 or did he lose? In the case that he lost, the idea that he would run for President is preposterous. Romney at least had the wisdom to not run.

[Thomas D]

Did Santorum decline re-election in 2006 or did he lose? In the case that he lost, the idea that he would run for President is preposterous. Romney at least had the wisdom to not run.

He lost. By a lot.

[California8429]

Did Santorum decline re-election in 2006 or did he lose? In the case that he lost, the idea that he would run for President is preposterous. Romney at least had the wisdom to not run.

He lost. By a lot.

biggest defeat since the 80's

[California8429]

I'm not saying this will happen but... If Santorum wins Iowa, or finshes a strong 2nd, he'll rocket to the front of the pack in PA.

If Santorum wins Iowa he becames the Mike Huckabee of 2012. I mean really if you win Iowa now adays, you have a good shot to pick up quite a few other states.

[MaxQue]

Did Santorum decline re-election in 2006 or did he lose? In the case that he lost, the idea that he would run for President is preposterous. Romney at least had the wisdom to not run.

He lost. By a lot.

biggest defeat since the 80's

59-41, exactly.

Quite bad for a two-term (12 years) incumbent.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm not saying this will happen but... If Santorum wins Iowa, or finshes a strong 2nd, he'll rocket to the front of the pack in PA.

You've just explained why early polls of states other than Iowa and New Hampshire are largely useless.

I mean, we should still post polls from other states when they come out just for the fun of it, but they're not really any good at predicting anything.

[Keystone Phil]

Did Santorum decline re-election in 2006 or did he lose? In the case that he lost, the idea that he would run for President is preposterous. Romney at least had the wisdom to not run.

He lost. By a lot.

biggest defeat since the 80's

59-41, exactly.

Quite bad for a two-term (12 years) incumbent.

Well, if we want to be exact, it was more like 58-41. 

You provided zero background for the race so throwing a "quite bad" jab in there was unfair.

Did Santorum decline re-election in 2006 or did he lose? In the case that he lost, the idea that he would run for President is preposterous. Romney at least had the wisdom to not run.

Romney was "wise" enough not to run? Or how about Santorum at least had the guts to run and have his ass handed to him while Mitt ran away to start playing Mr. Conservative?

How does losing a race six years ago make running for another ridiculous? I know we all think like politicos and see a loss as a major strike against someone. Add in the fact that it was a blowout and it isn't crazy to think someone's political career is over. People losing one office then trying for a higher office is uncommon but it shouldn't be a "preposterous" idea. Obama lost a primary for the House in 2000 by thirty points. His career was "over," too. Then he decided to take it a step further and run for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate just four years after that crushing, "career ending' defeat. See why it isn't so preposterous?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'm not saying this will happen but... If Santorum wins Iowa, or finshes a strong 2nd, he'll rocket to the front of the pack in PA.

You've just explained why early polls of states other than Iowa and New Hampshire are largely useless.

I mean, we should still post polls from other states when they come out just for the fun of it, but they're not really any good at predicting anything.

Well they do tell us something. The key is to get what that something is right. They tells us where their strengths are and where there weaknesses are, among other things.

Did Santorum decline re-election in 2006 or did he lose? In the case that he lost, the idea that he would run for President is preposterous. Romney at least had the wisdom to not run.

He lost. By a lot.

biggest defeat since the 80's

59-41, exactly.

Quite bad for a two-term (12 years) incumbent.

Well, if we want to be exact, it was more like 58-41. 

You provided zero background for the race so throwing a "quite bad" jab in there was unfair.

It would take a hell of lot of "background" to reduce the impact of those kind of numbers.

Did Santorum decline re-election in 2006 or did he lose? In the case that he lost, the idea that he would run for President is preposterous. Romney at least had the wisdom to not run.

Romney was "wise" enough not to run? Or how about Santorum at least had the guts to run and have his ass handed to him while Mitt ran away to start playing Mr. Conservative?

Santorum as wanted to be Majority Whip, which he was in line for had he won. He had more to gain from atleast trying to win.

[Keystone Phil]

It would take a hell of lot of "background" to reduce the impact of those kind of numbers.

I'm not saying that that isn't a horrible defeat but there is some background that needs to be given and primary voters would be more understanding if it is presented a certain way.

Santorum caught hell for running to the right on immigration and standing by Bush on the war. Looking back on it, he wouldn't have been as badly damaged if people knew what they know now. The Presidential primary electorate will certainly be more understanding.

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He wanted to be leader but, most importantly, he wanted to be President. Yes, he had plenty to gain from running and trying to win but it would have been easier to not run for re-election and run for President in 2008 and/or 2012.

[minionofmidas]

If Rick Santorum can't even win the state that he's from, you're correct in saying he's toast.

Milquetoast.

[feeblepizza]

If Rick Santorum can't even win the state that he's from, you're correct in saying he's toast.

Christie probably couldn't win the state he is from...Romney might not...so thats not the end of it if you don't carry your own state...

I think Christie could. Romney definitely wouldn't, unless it was a landslide. But it's pretty pointless to involve Santorum in polls, anyway. He's not a credible candidate.

[Mexino Vote]

Well, PA is much less DEM then MA or NJ though. But I agree not winning your homestate does not mean you'll lose. Woodrow Wilson won in 1916 with NJ.