2012 election results by state minus largest county

[old timey villain]

This will be an ongoing project of mine. I wanted to see how influential the largest county in each state is relative to its statewide vote totals. I started out with a handful of states that interested me the most, but I hope to cover all 50 states eventually.  Basically, what are the 2012 prez results from each state exempting its largest county? So far I've got some interesting results.

Let's start with California and Los Angeles County

Population 2012: 9,962,789/ Total 2012 Vote: 3,181,067


Home to Los Angeles and the Kardashians



Actual 2012 Result in California:
60.19% 37.09% OBAMA

Without LA County
57.19% 40.26% OBAMA

Los Angeles County's large population (largest in the US) and strong Democratic lean clearly makes California a D stronghold. Without this county, Obama wins by a smaller margin but still easily wins the state, although Romney now does respectably by clearing the 40% threshold.


Texas and Harris County

Population 2012: 4,253,700/ Total 2012 Vote: 1,188,585

Home to Houston, Texas, Joel Osteen and his monstrous church



Actual 2012 Result in Texas:
57.15% 41.37% ROMNEY

Without Harris County:
58.5% 39.99% ROMNEY

Since Harris has become a battleground county, both Obama and Romney lose about the same amount of votes when you omit the county from statewide results. But since Harris contributes a larger percentage to Obama's statewide total, he falls further and ends up a little below 40%.

[old timey villain]

Florida and Miami Dade County

Population 2012: 2,591,035/ Total 2012 Vote: 879,179


Home to Miami, Florida and the Golden Girls


(R.I.P.)

Actual 2012 Results in Florida: 49.91% 49.03% OBAMA

Without Miami Dade County
50.43% 48.7% ROMNEY

Here's a county that actually made a BIG difference. Miami Dade has leaned to the left in recent elections, but in 2012 Obama really gained a lot of ground here and achieved the biggest Democratic victory in decades, pretty much winning the state in the process. If it weren't for Obama's strong showing here, he would have lost the state to Romney. Republicans have a HUGE problem here if they can't win back some of the hispanic vote and keep Miami Dade closer.



Illinois and Cook County

Population 2012: 5,231,351/ Total 2012 Vote: 2,011,598


Home to Chicago, Illinois and Da Bears



Actual 2012 Results in Illinois
57.55% 40.69% OBAMA

Without Cook County
50.76% 47.39 ROMNEY

Ladies and gentlemen, witness the power of Chicago and Cook County- turning a lean R state into a strong D state. This really shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone, as it's well known that Chicago pretty much decides the outcome of most statewide elections. I'm more surprised that Romney didn't win by more without Cook County. For what it's worth, Obama probably still won Illinois in 2008 without Cook, but don't quote me on that.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

  This is great!  Keep going!

[H. Ross Peron]

Fascinating! I wonder if there's any state where the reverse would be true.

[Skill and Chance]

Some interesting ones-

AK- What do we use for a county equivalent here?
AZ- Swings D without Maricopa, but Romney still wins?
CO- El Paso (Colorado Springs) is even bigger than Denver and was ~59% Romney.  Huge D swing.
DE- Romney win without New Castle
HI- Oahu is actually the most moderate island
NH- Will swing D without Hillsborough
OR- Pretty sure Romney wins without Multnomah
VA- Does Obama win without Fairfax in 2012?  I know he won without NOVA period in 2008.
WA- Romney wins without King?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Illinois is pretty hilarious.

[Skill and Chance]

Fascinating! I wonder if there's any state where the reverse would be true.

Not in the 2012 election.  If Romney had narrowly won CO or NH then it would be possible.  CO would move left of NM without El Paso, so it is the best candidate.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

For what it's worth, Obama probably still won Illinois in 2008 without Cook, but don't quote me on that.

He did, with a respectable 52.8% of the vote.

[old timey villain]

Some interesting ones-

AK- What do we use for a county equivalent here?
AZ- Swings D without Maricopa, but Romney still wins?
CO- El Paso (Colorado Springs) is even bigger than Denver and was ~59% Romney.  Huge D swing.
DE- Romney win without New Castle
HI- Oahu is actually the most moderate island
NH- Will swing D without Hillsborough
OR- Pretty sure Romney wins without Multnomah
VA- Does Obama win without Fairfax in 2012?  I know he won without NOVA period in 2008.
WA- Romney wins without King?

I wanted to do Alaska but I had a really hard time finding election results for subregions or whatever they call them up there. I suspect Alaska would have been a lot closer or even an Obama win without Anchorage. If anyone can help me find the data I would really appreciate it.

[old timey villain]

Ok here's two more states.

Nevada and Clark County

Population 2012: 2,000,759/ Total 2012 Vote: 691,190


Home to Las Vegas, Nevada and suave, mysterious gamblers with arm candy



Actual 2012 Results in Nevada
52.36% 45.68% OBAMA

Without Clark County
53.91% 43.8% ROMNEY

Without Sin City, Nevada votes decisively for the milk drinking Mormon- quite fitting if you ask me, since most of Nevada outside of Las Vegas is sparsely populated by rural conservatives, many of them Mormons. One thing that's interesting is how much higher the third party vote is without Clark. Candidates like Gary Johnson and Virgil Goode actually did really well outside of Las Vegas and Reno and it shows when Clark is not factored into the results.


Tennessee and Shelby County

Population 2012: 940,764/ Total 2012 Vote: 371,616


Home to Memphis Tennessee and Elvis Week!!


(personal note: MUST attend this next year)

Actual 2012 Results in Tennessee
59.42% 39.04% ROMNEY

Without Shelby County
63.57% 34.9% ROMNEY

At first I though Nashville Davidson was the largest county but not so! Shelby County is much bigger and has a stronger D lean which makes the results interesting. Without Shelby's votes, Tennessee moves into Oklahoma territory, becoming even more overwhelmingly Republican. This is no surprise, as Shelby and Memphis are home to the bulk of the state's black voters.

[jimrtex]

I wanted to do Alaska but I had a really hard time finding election results for subregions or whatever they call them up there. I suspect Alaska would have been a lot closer or even an Obama win without Anchorage. If anyone can help me find the data I would really appreciate it.

They do publish results by House District.

Anchorage Borough is HD-12 through HD-27 and Eklutna and Peter's Creek in HD-11.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan and Wayne, County (much of the latter Detroit)

Barack H. Obama       595,846    72.83%
Willard Mitt Romney      213,814    26.13%



What can you say about Detroit? The Republican Party barely exists there.

Statewide:

Barack H. Obama       2,564,569    54.09%   
Willard Mitt Romney      2,115,256    44.61%     



Michigan without Wayne County:

Willard Mitt Romney      2,102,034
Barack H. Obama       1,860,723



Michigan politics is simple: Democrats run up the Democratic numbers in Greater Detroit or lose. So it is with Illinois and Greater Chicago.    

[pbrower2a]

Those are fitting images of Michigan -- so please try to modify my previous post so that the images show.

[Skill and Chance]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Michigan_highlighting_Wayne_County.svg


Michigan and Wayne, County (much of the latter Detroit)

Barack H. Obama       595,846    72.83%
Willard Mitt Romney      213,814    26.13%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Abandoned_Packard_Automobile_Factory_Detroit_200.jpg

What can you say about Detroit? The Republican Party barely exists there.

Statewide:

Barack H. Obama       2,564,569    54.09%   
Willard Mitt Romney      2,115,256    44.61%    

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:ComericaParkWEntrance.jpg

Michigan without Wayne County:

Willard Mitt Romney      2,102,034
Barack H. Obama       1,860,723

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mackinac_Bridge_Sunset.jpg

Michigan politics is simple: Democrats run up the Democratic numbers in Greater Detroit or lose. So it is with Illinois and Greater Chicago.    

I think you can flip all of the Midwestern Obama states except Iowa and Minnesota by removing the largest county.  Even MN only barely holds for Obama without Hennepin.  

[Benj]

I think you can flip all of the Midwestern Obama states except Iowa and Minnesota by removing the largest county.  Even MN only barely holds for Obama without Hennepin.  

Wisconsin also does not flip. It was Obama by about 215,000 votes, while Milwaukee only had an Obama margin of about 180,000. Almost identical to Minnesota, actually.

[pbrower2a]

In 2008, Barack Obama lost the popular vote if one ignores 65 governmental units. Those include 64 or so county-level governments (including such 'independent cities' ranging in size from Fredericksburg, Virginia to San Francisco) and the District of Columbia. The characteristic of those 65 political units was that those are the most densely-populated such places in America. Some such areas that he lost were Tarrant County in Texas, Maricopa County in Arizona,  Monmouth County in New Jersey, Richmond County (Staten Island) in New York, and Orange County in California -- but not by much. Needless to say he won big in places like Manhattan, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Chicago, Detroit, Miami, Denver, Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, the Twin Cities, the Quad Cities, Albuquerque, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle, Portland (either one)...   

[muon2]

Those are fitting images of Michigan -- so please try to modify my previous post so that the images show.

Done.


You can do the same with a right click and view image. Copy the url between the img identifiers to embed the pic.

[old timey villain]

Another round of states comin' right up

You know I was going to show my home state some attention so let's check out...
Georgia and Fulton County

Population 2012: 977,773/ Total 2012 Vote: 398,346


Home to Atlanta and Blondie, our city's most beloved stripper


(She's been working at the Clermont Lounge for 35 years, can crush PBR cans with her boobs and is a DELIGHT)

Actual 2012 Result in Georgia
53.25% 45.43% ROMNEY

Without Fulton County
55.45% 43.36% ROMNEY

So it's not a huge change. Romney only does a few points better. I think this is probably because we also have Dekalb County, which gave Obama almost as many votes as Fulton. Plus, you still have the black belt down in South Georgia.


Ohio and Cuyahoga County

Population 2012: 1,265,111/ Total Vote 2012: 645,262


Home to Cleveland and Not Detroit



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysmLA5TqbIY

Actual 2012 Results in Ohio
50.58% 47.60% OBAMA

Without Cuyahoga County
50.06% 48.23% ROMNEY

Democrats should make fun of Cleveland at their own peril! The city and county delivered the state for Obama in 2012 and certainly in other close Democratic victories. Cuyahoga has been losing population which could create problems for Dems in the future trying to run up their margins in the state's largest county, so come on down to Cleveland town everyone! On an unrelated note, whenever I hear someone say Cuyahoga I can't help think of a Native American chanting CU-ya-ho-GA CU-ya-ho-GA!!!