US House Redistricting: Arkansas

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

They must really think that 2010 was just a blip then... They better have some amazing candidates ready to run in AR-1 and AR-2.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't really get this.

There's always a couple of utter fyck ups every gerrymandering round, right? This might be the first.

[DrScholl]

From what I'm reading, the State Senate has it's version, so they may be a little less ambitious. If they were going to unlock Fayetteville to help Ross, the only other move should have to sink Griffin, by giving him the heavy to moderate Democratic portions of Crawford's district.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Other than the Fayeteville thing I really don't understand why the Republicans are so pissed about this. This could go 4-0 for them when Ross is gone.

[Miles]

This could go 4-0 for them when Ross is gone.

Yep, the more I think about this plan, the more I think it will turn out a dummymander...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

They shouldn't try to overreach, like Georgia Democrats did in the 90s by targeting their only Republican, Newt Gingrich. Worked out real well for them in 1994.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's another crack at a 2-2 map:

[Brittain33]

I'm thinking that city Dems and Delta Dems just don't want to share a district and that's what's going to keep them from drawing a district one of them can win.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I've just been thinking that maybe it's because they don't want to give the one safe seat to a black.

[krazen1211]

I'm thinking that city Dems and Delta Dems just don't want to share a district and that's what's going to keep them from drawing a district one of them can win.

You're kind of wasting Pulaski if you went that district west into the 65% McCain Counties.

[Miles]

This is the best plan I've seen come out of the AR Legislature....



Democrats would obviously concede CD1 and CD3.

CD2 gave Kerry A 52-48 win, but a McCain flipped that margin in 2008. It would have a pretty even PVI. This would also pit Crawford against Griffin.

CD4 would be down to about R+5. Every county that this district takes in voted for Lincoln.

Overall, in terms of PVI's, this map is pretty similar to my plan.

[Sam Spade]

I've just been thinking that maybe it's because they don't want to give the one safe seat to a black.

This is, of course, the right answer.

[Miles]

This is what the "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan looks like without county lines. To its credit, the deviation of each district is less than 250 people...


 
Still, it has a face only an Arkansan Democrat can love...

[krazen1211]

http://tolbertreport.com/2011/03/28/poll-shows-overwhelming-opposition-from-fayetteville-to-congressional-redistricting-plan/

The results show that 81.8 percent prefer to remain in their current district with Bentonville, Rogers and Fort Smith while 10.2 percent prefer to be moved to a new district with Hot Springs, Pine Bluff and Texarkana. Only 8.0 percent indicated they were unsure.




I think we have our dummymander of the decade. I think they missed the memo in Little Rock; you're supposed to screw the other side in redistricting, not your own guys.

[Brittain33]

Almost no one in Fayetteville really cares about this issue.

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[edtorres04]

The Tolbert Poll says that they do care and hate the plan. 

I think this plan is bad for the GOP.  It turns an already packed AR 3 into a hyperpacked AR 3. 

[Brittain33]

The Tolbert Poll says that they do care and hate the plan. 

It's a poll by a conservative group with an interest in holding off this map and the premise is that you're asking people their opinions. Generally people have no idea what their maps look like or who their representative is. It's a major uphill battle to get people to care about this process stuff.

[minionofmidas]

The Tolbert Poll says that they do care and hate the plan.  

It's a poll by a conservative group with an interest in holding off this map and the premise is that you're asking people their opinions. Generally people have no idea what their maps look like or who their representative is. It's a major uphill battle to get people to care about this process stuff.

This.

What the poll says is, when asked, people would prefer in a district with cities near them. Which is pretty much the definition of "they needed to take a poll to tell us that? Wtf?"  (You would have to be copped in to politics to even be aware that the "(named) cities far from here" option means a Democratic congressman.) They did not in any way or form ask people how strongly they feel about the proposal, or if they were previously aware of it.

I think this plan is bad for the GOP.  It turns an already packed AR 3 into a hyperpacked AR 3.  

Yes, it does. The question is - is that enough for Arkansas Democrats to bounce back as they did after 94? Or are they in danger of losing the 1st and 2nd, and perhaps the 4th as well, for good, unless they massively redraw the map?
It really depends on what you expect to happen in the future. It would have been possible to draw a seat that would be safe Democratic even if Congressional voting patterns continue to mirror the last presidential election, as they did in 2010 across the south, but never before. They aren't doing that. It's a major gamble.

[krazen1211]

The Tolbert Poll says that they do care and hate the plan. 

It's a poll by a conservative group with an interest in holding off this map and the premise is that you're asking people their opinions. Generally people have no idea what their maps look like or who their representative is. It's a major uphill battle to get people to care about this process stuff.

This.

What the poll says is, when asked, people would prefer in a district with cities near them. Which is pretty much the definition of "they needed to take a poll to tell us that? Wtf?"  (You would have to be copped in to politics to even be aware that the "(named) cities far from here" option means a Democratic congressman.) They did not in any way or form ask people how strongly they feel about the proposal, or if they were previously aware of it.

I think this plan is bad for the GOP.  It turns an already packed AR 3 into a hyperpacked AR 3. 

Yes, it does. The question is - is that enough for Arkansas Democrats to bounce back as they did after 94? Or are they in danger of losing the 1st and 3rd, and perhaps the 4th as well, for good, unless they massively redraw the map?
It really depends on what you expect to happen in the future. It would have been possible to draw a seat that would be safe Democratic even if Congressional voting patterns continue to mirror the last presidential election, as they did in 2010 across the south, but never before. They aren't doing that. It's a major gamble.

They actually asked about interest levels.

http://tolbertreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/PollReportFayetteville2Fourth.pdf

Truthfully, squiggly lines like this have worked well for the Democrats in other places; Georgia in the 1990s, for instance.

[minionofmidas]

In a wholly meaningless way.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's another stab at a 2-2 map:



Ross and Griffin are put in the same district; Griffin could just move to the open AR-02, since it's become safe Republican. Ross might not like having Little Rock in his district, but it would make the district at lot easier for someone else to hold, while still preserving enough of Ross's base to keep him safe from a primary (not that it matters, since he's only going to run for one more term). AR-01 becomes tougher for Crawford to hold; I tried to pull out as many counties in the north as possible and replace them with counties in the south. The district's VAP is only about 28% black, so again, an electable (read: white) Democrat could get through the primary. Nothing interesting to say about AR-03, it just shrunk some.

2008 breakdown (not exact, but close enough; I applied the split counties to whichever county has the majority of the population):

AR-01 (blue) - 52.8 McCain, 44.7 Obama
AR-02 (green) - 65.6 McCain, 31.5 Obama
AR-03 (purple) - 63.6 McCain, 34.0 Obama
AR-04 (red) - 53.3 McCain, 44.7 Obama

I wasn't expecting the numbers to come out quite this balanced, but what the heck.

[Miles]

Johnny's plan is pretty good. It keeps the county lines relatively intact and the blue and red districts would be pretty Dem-friendly.

I was thinking about the 'Fayetteville to the Fourth' plan, and it could actually be a pretty good 2-2 plan. The first district (already a swingy district by AR standards) would get more Democratic and in a neutral year, I'm sure a Democrat could win it. Second, after Ross leaves, Dustin McDaniel (who lives in Fayettvile) could hold it for the Dems.

[t_host1]

Is this balanced enough?

I'm looking at it from a environmental and for the Regional District Commanders (USPMC) - (SD) purposes.

[Miles]

No offense, but you're numbers are way off.

I started to do your plan and the 3rd district has 75000 extra people!

Have you tried Dave's Redistricting App?

http://www.gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/launchapp.html

[DrScholl]

The Arkansas GOP released this frantic sounded ad about the Fayettevile to the Fourth plan.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzEGVd6WXlU