US House Redistricting: Arkansas

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is it safe to say Republicans are screwed in Arkansas for another decade?

No, this map seems to almost maintain the status quo, actually. Once Ross loses or retires it will probably be 4R 0D. Fine by me, the fewer blue dogs, the better.

Look, I am no fan of most of the blue dogs, but this is the same type of thinking that has cost Republicans a number of seats over the past few election cycles ("who cares if a Democrat wins, at least it's one less "RINO").  The 2010 Delaware Senate race is a prime example of this (and it would've probably cost Republicans even more seats in 2010 had it been a normal year).  I have no problem with primarying blue-dogs in areas where a more liberal Democrat could just as easily keep the seat/district in Democratic hands.  However, there are places (such as Ross' district) where the only choices are either a blue-dog or a right-wing Republican.  The blue-dog may be a pain in the rear sometimes, and he/she may only vote with his/her party some of the time, but I can promise you that the Republican (especially one from a district like AR-4) will NEVER vote with the Democrats on important issues (and often not minor ones). 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is the "modified" version of the 'Fayettville to the Fourth' plan that they've come up with.

...And I thought it couldn't get much worse than the original....Silly me!

I don't suppose there is any chance of Beebe vetoing that monstrosity, is there?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here's the latest iteration of the map...

KILL IT WITH FIRE!!!!!!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here's the latest iteration of the map...

God damn it....

it looks like Louisiana and Arkansas are trading karma.  Dems are getting a decent map in the former, and Republicans are getting a decent map in the latter.

This is apparently the final map that Beebe will sign.

The state Democrats must have some great candidates or they better hope Obama isn't reelected...

Maybe Dustin McDaniel could move to the 4th after Ross leaves.

I could see Bill Halter being competitive with Tim Griffin the 2nd.

I could see the "right kind" (read: conservative white) of State Senator or State Representative being competitive against Crawford (at least for now, this may change as the state becomes more and more Republican).  I don't know that Bill Halter would be such a great candidate for AR-2, given that he ran an insurgent Senate campaign from the left in 2010 (I don't know if the challenge was viewed in Arkansas as liberal, populist, or "who cares, I hate Lincoln too").  I still think Robbie Wills could be a strong candidate here, and I'm sure the Democrats still have a bench in this district.  We're pretty much screwed in the fourth when Ross runs for Governor (as most expect him to) unless Dustin McDaniel runs (he might need to move) and even then it might be an uphill battle.  However, I suspect he'll run for Governor instead.  Plus, Obama will be on the ballot in 2012, which means that it will be even harder to pickup AR-1 and AR-2.  Basically Arkansas Democrats controlled the trifecta and produced a ridiculous dummymander.