US House Redistricting: Arkansas

[jimrtex]

Since the state requires no county splits, the population numbers are a little high for AR-03 and a little low in AR-02 (by about 5,000 voters). AR-01 and AR-04 are pretty close to the target.

I'm not sure that there is actually a requirement of no county splits.  I couldn't find anything in the Constitution.

In 2001, the legislature enacted the current county-based boundaries, and then added a section that defined what would happen if those were overturned.

AR-1 has a perfect population (a deviation of 0 from the ideal of 668,360.

AR-2 was short 2,302 and would have taken 4 precincts from Pope county.

AR-4 was short 2.094 and would have taken 5 precincts from Franklin county.

AR-3 has an excess of 4,396 and would have lost the above areas.

So they actually had a 0.97% total deviation,  and AR-2 was 0.65% over.

[jimrtex]

arkansas is one of the few southern states left where democrats control just about everything in the statehouse. I expect them to draw as favorable a map to democrats as possible.

They don't have that big of a majority.

If you are Democratic representative from a weird appendage, do you vote for the bill?

They have been so dominant for so long, they probably aren't easily whipped.

[jimrtex]

Here's my first version of a remap based on whole counties. I only moved 14 counties and substantially improved on the population equality from the 2000 map. This version has an average deviation of 761 (0.10%) and a range of 2151 (0.30%).



CD 1 (cyan): 727,456
CD 2 (yellow): 729,395
CD 3 (forest): 729,607
CD 4 (pink): 729,460

In 2001, they actually amended the existing redistricting statute, as opposed to simply striking everything and replacing (see Act 1840, 2001 session).  Only 4 counties were shifted:

Baxter from 3 to 1; and  Logan, Polk, and Scott from 3 to 4.

So they might opt for less equality, it there are fewer adjustments.

[jimrtex]

Here's my first version of a remap based on whole counties. I only moved 14 counties and substantially improved on the population equality from the 2000 map. This version has an average deviation of 761 (0.10%) and a range of 2151 (0.30%).



CD 1 (cyan): 727,456
CD 2 (yellow): 729,395
CD 3 (forest): 729,607
CD 4 (pink): 729,460

In 2001, they actually amended the existing redistricting statute, as opposed to simply striking everything and replacing (see Act 1840, 2001 session).  Only 4 counties were shifted:

Baxter from 3 to 1; and  Logan, Polk, and Scott from 3 to 4.

So they might opt for less equality, it there are fewer adjustments.

It is possible to move only 4 counties and have the population be within the same range as the current map. Move Pope, Johnson, and Newton from CD 3 to CD 4, and move Van Buren from CD 2 to CD 1. The resulting map has an average deviation of 0.35%, a range of 0.98%, and CD 2 has the maximum deviation of 0.70% over the ideal.

However, if someone doesn't like the map that moves a minimum of counties, they could sue. They would claim that it was practicible to move the 14 counties in my example and have a smaller deviation and range, yet still keep counties whole.

Which is almost identical to the situation that they had in 2001, when the statute included additional language that would have split two counties if anyone had challenged the plan in court.  The only difference is that AR-1 had the precisely ideal population in 2000.

I don't think that Arkansas has a legal requirement to not split counties, nor to ignore existing districts like in Iowa.

So Arkansas will argue they have a rational state purpose: to not split counties and to maintain existing representative-constituent relationships, while getting under 1% total deviation.  And the legislature has already expressed a policy preference to split counties rather than do large reshuffling merely to make districts a couple 1000 closer.  They also have a historical record of similar plans.

[jimrtex]

Maryland isn't part of the South demographically or culturally, and barely is longitudinally.

Historically, Maryland was divided North/South, with the Chesapeake serving as a transportation link rather than a barrier.   There weren't any Washington suburbs.