Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade:

Gaddafi to no longer be leader of Libya as of Dec. 31, 2011: 63.0

[Mr. Morden]

This story really makes it sound like the regime is on its last legs:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/world/africa/22libya.html?_r=1

[Mr. Morden]

Weird:

http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/africa/news/article_1620929.php/Libyan-jets-believed-to-be-defecting-land-in-Malta-Roundup

[Mr. Morden]

He's clearly done now, the point being how long will it take, and what will it take. For the flee, not sure he would have a lot of choices of destination with what just happened.

I think he's burned too many bridges for the Saudis to accept him.  At this point, he's likely limited to Zimbabwe, and even then it likely wouldn't be something publicly acknowledged.

North Korea, Iran, and Uzbekistan are also possibilities. Saudi Arabia is definitely off the table as Ghaddafi's intelligence service attempted to assassinate King (then Crown Prince) Abdullah as recently as 2003.

Does Ghaddafi necessarily want to leave?  Might he be nuts enough to stay and fight well past the point at which it's clear staying means death?

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Yeah, I think he's toast.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-libya-mideast-protests-20110223,0,2508820,full.story

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[Mr. Morden]

A Libyan warship defects to Malta:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2011/02/libya-warship-defects-to-malta.html

[Mr. Morden]

It sounds like all the momentum is with the rebels, now controlling the entire eastern half of the country (at least along the coast), and there are now some reports of the rebels taking over a few cities in the west as well.  Is this going to end with a massive showdown in Tripoli?

[Mr. Morden]

Yeah, this isn't good:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704520504576162820431712238.html

[Mr. Morden]

The former justice minister (who resigned a few days ago) says:

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/2011224143054988104.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Well Obama is imposing sanctions: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2011/02/25/Obama-imposes-sanctions-against-Libya/UPI-61861298667236/

Useless gesture of the month. It's not like Gaddafi's going to give a damn.

This whole episode puts into stark relief some of the absurdities of international relations and diplomatic-speak.

I understand why Qaddafi's kid would go on TV and do a Baghdad Bob in pretending that this is just some sort of minor disturbance in a few cities, and the government still has control of most of the country, but from Western leaders like Obama, Cameron, Sarkozy, etc., you're almost getting a milder version of that.  Where their public statements still refer to Qaddafi's regime as the government of Libya, and they urge the regime not to use force against protesters and so forth.

Uh, we're way past this being about a "protest movement".  It's a war.  A war in which the rebels have managed to take over most of the country outside of Tripoli.  Qaddafi is no longer the leader of Libya in any meaningful sense, and he probably never will be again.  And one side of the war is going to win and the other side is going to lose, and Obama, Cameron et al. would presumably like the rebels to win, and they'd like it to happen by most of Qaddafi's forces switching sides / giving up without a fight.

But of course, they can't say any of that, because acknowledging the opposition as a potential government of Libya this soon (even while the country's entire diplomatic corps seems to have sided with them!) and saying that Qaddafi's regime is done as the government of Libya might offend authoritarian allies and violates the norms of the Westphalian system and Western colonialism and blah blah blah.  Same kind of nonsense that leads to people refusing to say out loud that Taiwan is an independent country, even while treating it like one.

[Mr. Morden]

Well, the international community seems to have suddenly woken up to the fact that Gaddafi is on his way out.  The UN Security Council voted to freeze Gaddafi's assets and refer him to the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12589434

and Obama called on Gaddafi to step down.

Meanwhile, Gaddafi's forces are starting to withdraw from certain neighborhoods within Tripoli, to consolidate their forces.  And a new interim government has been set up for post-Gaddafi Libya, with former justice minister Mustafa Mohamed Abud Al Jeleil taking the lead for now:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libyan_Interim_Government

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

I'm still kind of unclear on how the paying of mercenaries works.  Do they just get a big fat check at the end of their service (assuming their side wins)?  Do they have a usable escape route in case things look bad, and they realize that they're going to lose?

[Mr. Morden]

US, Allies weigh no-fly zone

By continued trade & supply to the liberated areas, while keeping Tripoli under blockade for all but humanitarian supplies, other countries can starve Qaddafi. Right now the opposition does not seem strong enough to take Tripoli, the Libyan military was kept too weak by Qaddafi.

I predict that if there's still a stalemate in three weeks, the Western powers will start arming the rebels, so that they can finish Qaddafi off.

[Mr. Morden]

Impose a no-fly zone around the Tripoli region only, and then sell the rebels some tanks at a deep discount (possibly via a third party like Egypt, if it helps with appearances).  That might be enough to end this.

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like Gaddafi is regaining momentum.  Zawiya's position in particular looks rather tenuous.  Of course, the pro-Gaddafi side probably can't take it without a huge amount of bloodshed, which probably makes Western intervention more likely.

Also, looks like there's about to be a big showdown near Ajdabiya:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704506004576173831133467692.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12618367

[Mr. Morden]

Even if Gaddafi "wins", does he really have enough loyal troops to invade and occupy the east?  Might this turn into a pre-9/11 Afghanistan situation, with the country divided and in a quasi-equilibrium ongoing state of civil war?

[Mr. Morden]

green = held by pro-Gaddafi forces
red = held by anti-Gaddafi forces
yellow = ongoing fighting / unclear situation

[Mr. Morden]

The forum can't display SVGs.

It shows up just fine in my browser.

[Mr. Morden]

About a week ago, "Gaddafi to no longer be leader of Libya by Dec. 31st, 2011" was trading at about 90 on Intrade, and it's now down to 76.0......just below "Saleh to no longer be president of Yemen by Dec. 31st, 2011", which is at 77.0.

[Mr. Morden]

France recognizes Libya's rebel leadership in Benghazi as the official government of Libya, and will soon exchange ambassadors with them:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/11/world/europe/11france.html

[Mr. Morden]

France recognizes Libya's rebel leadership in Benghazi as the official government of Libya, and will soon exchange ambassadors with them...

What the devil is wrong with them?  It looks like Gaddafi is going to pull it out.

I saw an impressive guy on BBC today, some ex-foreign minister of the UK, who said that he always thought Gaddafi would win, and doesn't think anyone will intervene in a major way.

Like I've said before, Gaddafi may "win", but I doubt he has enough loyal troops to invade and occupy the entirety of the east.  Gaddafi "winning" may mean a Somalia-like situation in much of the country, which would of course be great news for the "bearded ones" you're so fond of.

[Mr. Morden]

The Arab League asks the UN Security Council to impose a no-fly zone:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8378392/Libya-Arab-League-calls-for-United-Nations-no-fly-zone.html

[Mr. Morden]

Egypt may have special forces helping the rebels, but I doubt they're going to be up for any kind of overt military action in Libya.  Too much to worry about internally in Egypt at the moment.

And of course, the UN Security Council isn't going to authorize any military action, because it would be blocked by China and/or Russia.  Turkey also seems to be keen on vetoing any NATO action.

So if there's to be any major military action (such as a no fly zone) in support of the rebels from the outside, it'll probably just be the US, UK, and France, with maybe some token help from a few others, and no authorization from the UN or from NATO.


Oh, and the rebels claim that Gaddafi is getting help from Algeria and Syria:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/africa-mideast/rebels-fear-other-regimes-are-throwing-support-behind-gadhafis-forces/article1940647/

[Mr. Morden]

Control of Brega still seems to be contested:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12742858

This is still a long long way from being over.  Gaddafi may have the momentum, but things are changing very very slowly: