Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

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We'll be talking about this "speech" in 100 years, folks.

I agree, it could reach an historical level.

Also, about news, a France2 (2nd French TV channel) journalists team has apparently been the 1st journalists to enter in Libya, by the east, monarchy flags everywhere from the Egyptian border to Tobruk, and Tobruk is apparently fallen in the hands of protesters.

You mean no more mono-green flag once democracy comes? I think I support Gaddafi now.

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Maybe. Some indications suggest that Gaddafi has successfully destroyed the rebellion in Tripoli itself (mostly by killing hundreds and scaring everyone else off the streets). The real question is whether the other western cities will fall into the rebels' control, and, if not, if the Cyrenaicans will push further west and eventually topple Gaddafi. (Or if some outside power decides intervening is a good idea, or someone assassinates Gaddafi, or something else equivalently random.)

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Gaddafi is out, obviously. Kind of tragicomical how the international community only joins the bandwagon once it is 100% clear that the Libyan people has done the job on their own.

Well, if he pulls through, we'd still need his oil, wouldn't we?

He's not in control of the oilfields any more, so we can throw him under a bus.

He still controls the oil fields in the west. The seeds are set for a long term civil war unless there are more defections and Gaddafi's side collapses. Which, hopefully is not too far away. However, if anyone is able to control the country after this is anyone's guess. Libya is really in trouble.

He controls the fields but has no way to sell the oil (as all of the pipelines are shut down, and he has no way to get the oil to ports; the oil ports are all controlled by the opposition). This is not going to be a long civil war. Gaddafi has no supporters, just mercenaries and his family, and the mercenaries will not stick around once he can't pay them (which will happen very soon if it isn't happening already). Even if he does, there's no way he can get supplies in and out of Tripoli, and he's continuing to lose control of more and more places closer and closer to the city. This is all but over.

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I'm still kind of unclear on how the paying of mercenaries works.  Do they just get a big fat check at the end of their service (assuming their side wins)?  Do they have a usable escape route in case things look bad, and they realize that they're going to lose?

Probably depends on the mercenaries, but I would guess most demand pay by the day or the week or something. Otherwise it would be way too risky to get involved in something like this where you stand a good chance of dying and an even better chance of never getting paid.

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Just as Tunisia and Egypt influenced others, Libya may as well. If the country falls into a protracted civil war and humanitarian crisis, particularly if Qaddafi is able to re-take cities, this may have a chilling effect on protests elsewhere, particularly raising awareness of potential violent dynamics and the risks inherent in attempting a revolution. Such a chilling effect, at this point, would not be entirely unwelcome.

It's really rather difficult to come up with an adequate response to this.

Don't try to understand it, Xahar, just accept that them sandpeople don't really count when that Human Rights thing is discussed.

My point is that you guys are taking a rather simplistic view of things, but I don't expect you to understand.

Realpolitik is just as simplistic and naive as any other international perspective, especially from those who proclaim wisdom beyond their capacity to know.

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It's been reported that Sirte has fallen without much resistance, and that a column of military vehicles fled westwards. Don't know what to make of this, given that both sides aren't very truthful.

     Given Sirt's status as Qaddafi's hometown & a fairly important point of defense for him, I doubt that it fell that easily. Both sides have lied plenty in this conflict, & I am reticent to believe anything not corroborated by foreign media.

True; however, Sirte was primarily a Qaddafi fortress due to the large loyalist military presence there early on, not necessarily due to much sympathy for him. We'll see.

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It's not as if Gaddafi was ever our friend. I would be surprised if we bombed friendly Arab nations if there were insurrections there.

See: Bahrain. Which also has a lot of oil, incidentally, and yet there was no intervention.

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Rebels attempting to seize Brega (again).  If successful, Qaddafi will be limited to pretty much just Sirt and Tripoli.

And everything but Misrata in between, as well as the coast from Tripoli to the Tunisian border and the western part of the Fezzan.

I meant in terms of population centers.  There's not many people (outside rebel-controlled Misrata) between Tripoli and Sirt, let alone down in Fezzan.

In many ways, it would make sense (if the attack on Brega succeeds) for the rebels to cut off and bypass Sirt rather than try to take it.  It's Qaddafi's most loyal city in the country.

Well, there's also the cities along the coast west of Tripoli, which Gadaffi does control. Of course, it's clear by the initial success of the rebels there that they don't support Gadaffi (nor does Tripoli, of course), but he has the military advantage there.

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They're right. I think an American court would probably laugh out the case as double jeopardy, anyway. At the least, it would be an interesting constitutional question whether foreign trials, especially those resulting in conviction, count towards the constitutional prohibition on double jeopardy.

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AU head: Libya rebels may be killing black workers

Our new buddies

http://news.yahoo.com/au-head-libya-rebels-may-killing-black-workers-153142974.html

Source: The African Union, which is full of dictators bought and paid for by Gaddafi.

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Algeria is now claiming that Gaddafi and his family have fled the country and are with them now: http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/08/29/libya.algeria.gadhafi/

Not Gaddafi, at least so far. Just his wife and some of his younger kids.

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South Africa is pro-Gaddaffi???

Hey, I wasn't lying when I said the African Union was bought and paid for by Gaddafi. Sorry if you still had delusions that the ANC were good guys.

Actually probably the most interesting result on that map is Burkina Faso for the NTC; it was widely believed that Burkina Faso was one of the most likely countries to give Gaddafi asylum. (Maybe they're just playing both sides.)