Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[Beet]

Wow. Libya has dissolved into chaos. This is no Egypt, that's for sure - it really shows the downside of breakdown of law & order.

[Beet]

Gaddafi is out, obviously. Kind of tragicomical how the international community only joins the bandwagon once it is 100% clear that the Libyan people has done the job on their own.

Well, if he pulls through, we'd still need his oil, wouldn't we?

He's not in control of the oilfields any more, so we can throw him under a bus.

He still controls the oil fields in the west. The seeds are set for a long term civil war unless there are more defections and Gaddafi's side collapses. Which, hopefully is not too far away. However, if anyone is able to control the country after this is anyone's guess. Libya is really in trouble.

[Beet]

US, Allies weigh no-fly zone

By continued trade & supply to the liberated areas, while keeping Tripoli under blockade for all but humanitarian supplies, other countries can starve Qaddafi. Right now the opposition does not seem strong enough to take Tripoli, the Libyan military was kept too weak by Qaddafi.

[Beet]

US, Allies weigh no-fly zone

By continued trade & supply to the liberated areas, while keeping Tripoli under blockade for all but humanitarian supplies, other countries can starve Qaddafi. Right now the opposition does not seem strong enough to take Tripoli, the Libyan military was kept too weak by Qaddafi.

I predict that if there's still a stalemate in three weeks, the Western powers will start arming the rebels, so that they can finish Qaddafi off.

Agreed. If Qaddafi starts a counter-offensive, Western powers could move sooner with arms or even air strikes. Usually I'm against foreign intervention, but this is one case where limited action could make sense.

[Beet]

The counter-attack has started. It's civil war.

US readies military options

French planes with humanitarian supplies moving in

Once again this would be one of the rare cases where limited intervention might be justifiable and actually not backfire on the West if it were to intervene. Do not airstrike on urban areas, however keep Qadhafi's tanks from moving across the desert, keep his planes grounded.

[Beet]

There are a couple of factors to consider. One, the early stages of a civil war are the most critical, so if this is what is indeed brewing, then the window of opportunity to rapidly influence a decisive result is closing quickly. Two, if the two sides are relatively evenly balanced in a stalemate, it would take more than a "no-fly zone" and taking out anti-aircraft batteries to break the stalemate. Sustained aerial strikes on entrenched positions with civilian collateral casualties ala Afghanistan 2001 would likely be necessary. Three, Turkey, Russia, France and Germany would not likely be on board. This would be a "coalition of the willing." The final consideration is the impact that the Libyan situation has on other protests in other countries. Just as Tunisia and Egypt influenced others, Libya may as well. If the country falls into a protracted civil war and humanitarian crisis, particularly if Qaddafi is able to re-take cities, this may have a chilling effect on protests elsewhere, particularly raising awareness of potential violent dynamics and the risks inherent in attempting a revolution. Such a chilling effect, at this point, would not be entirely unwelcome.

[Beet]

The military situation is hard to gauge, but looking at the map, one can say the pro-Qadhafi forces are trapped in Tripoli, but one could also say the anti-Qadhafi forces are split between the eastern portion and a couple of cities in the west, Al-Zawiya and Misrata. Of these, Al-Zawiya appears to be under siege and would need to be resupplied by sea. The danger for the opposition is that the two western cities are isolated and cut off. This seems unlikely for Misrata because of its size.

Link

"There are, in essence, two Libyan rebellions. A rebel army has risen up in the east, led by a provisional government in Benghazi. Independent uprisings have occurred in western towns—including Misrata, Libya's third-largest city, which lies 130 miles east of Tripoli, and Al-Zawiya, 30 miles to the capital's west.

In Zawiya, rebels controlled the center of the city Tuesday, while pro-government forces held the outskirts. Witnesses said pro-government forces have moved their checkpoints closer to central Al-Zawiya, increasing their control over several neighborhoods."

Strangely it reminds me of the Spanish civil war, especially with the use of mercenaries from other parts of Africa.

[Beet]

Just as Tunisia and Egypt influenced others, Libya may as well. If the country falls into a protracted civil war and humanitarian crisis, particularly if Qaddafi is able to re-take cities, this may have a chilling effect on protests elsewhere, particularly raising awareness of potential violent dynamics and the risks inherent in attempting a revolution. Such a chilling effect, at this point, would not be entirely unwelcome.

It's really rather difficult to come up with an adequate response to this.

Don't try to understand it, Xahar, just accept that them sandpeople don't really count when that Human Rights thing is discussed.

My point is that you guys are taking a rather simplistic view of things, but I don't expect you to understand.

[Beet]

The issue isn't "realpolitik." The reason why I am concerned about protests is that when they turn out the way the situation in Libya has turned out, it can end up hurting more people than helping. Isn't the fact that the country has fallen into civil war, some 140,000 people have been displaced from their homes, and some 6,000 people have been killed something to consider? Or are these facts on the ground irrelevant because we were taught in school that any armed uprising purporting to speak in the name of liberal democracy is automatically worthwile?

[Beet]

The issue isn't "realpolitik." The reason why I am concerned about protests is that when they turn out the way the situation in Libya has turned out, it can end up hurting more people than helping. Isn't the fact that the country has fallen into civil war, some 140,000 people have been displaced from their homes, and some 6,000 people have been killed something to consider? Or are these facts on the ground irrelevant because we were taught in school that any armed uprising purporting to speak in the name of liberal democracy is automatically worthwile?

Liberty is the most important thing.

Is it? Where was the liberty on 9/12 when the Patriot Act was being proposed? In theory, "give me liberty or give me death" is what Westerners tend to admire, but in reality, even most Westerners will take government provided security over physical danger or death. It's a mistake to project our own values and dreams onto other people's lived reality. The lived reality in Libya right now isn't very good.

@ Antonio: the West should definitely consider intervention, as I've mentioned many times.

[Beet]

Government forces are within 1 mile of the central square in Zawiya, and the top rebel commander in the town has been killed. Although I'm not sure what would be worse: the government reprisals against rebels after they re-take the town, or the humanitarian crisis that would have played out in a long drawn-out siege with food supplies not being allowed in. Probably the latter.

[Beet]

Gaddafi's assault on Zawiya has failed. Hopefully the rebels were able to capture some ammunition. That makes three defeats for Gaddafi - Brega, Ras Lanuf, and now Zawiya.

[Beet]

Libyan state TV now claims they have taken Zawiya and Misurata. If so it would be huge, but it's hard to believe. There's no reaction on Intrade yet. I think it's best to discount this unless there is independent confirmation.

[Beet]

Libyan state TV now claims they have taken Zawiya and Misurata. If so it would be huge, but it's hard to believe. There's no reaction on Intrade yet. I think it's best to discount this unless there is independent confirmation.

They seem to "retake zawiya" everyday. So until their is some media taken into the town and shown its cleared i wouldn't buy it.

Yea, AJE just had on someone from Misrata who said that government forces are nowhere near there.

[Beet]

France: Arab League/Amr Moussa back no-fly zone.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jrLGOL6UZpNNaNghtx7z8vr7U2uQ?docId=CNG.93280b7ec50a265e547c3fbb555a7bba.681

[Beet]

If some countries attack Libya, Austria will not be among them:

A new Gallup poll shows 70% of Austrians are against a military intervention by our army.

http://www.oe24.at/welt/libyen/Oesterreich-kauft-Oel-von-Gaddafi/19530504

I would find it humorous, if Austria was the sole country to intervene.

Austria hasn't been the sole country to intervene anywhere since 1914.

There does appear to be a lack of Arab support for Western intervention of any kind. We have to admit that if this was Darfur or Congo, no one would be talking about a no fly zone, it would not even be in the news. The West needs to tread carefully here.

[Beet]

That was the most significant expression of support but it's not certain whether they mean the West enforcing or they enforcing themselves with the African Union. It's also not clear how much support there is "on the street" for Western intervention. Of course Arab governments and Arab peoples are not always in agreement

[Beet]

The International Community is faced with a choice - comprehensive military intervention short of boots on the ground (including air-to-air, air-to-ground, sea-to-sea, and sea-to-ground attacks, supplying the opposition with arms) vs. possibly accepting either a permanent state of division or a Gadhafi victory and retribution, and a Gadhafi regime control over Libya. I can't see how the latter is superior to the former. As I said last week, every single day that passes by with more bureaucracy and diplomacy and empty words just makes this job harder.