Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[John Dibble]

There's some reports that an army unit has defected.

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Libya-Latest-Up-To-120-Die-As-Libyan-Authorities-Arrest-Networks-Of-Foreign-Agents/Article/201102315937134?lpos=World_News_Top_Stories_Header_1&lid=ARTICLE_15937134_Libya_Latest%3A_Up_To_120_Die_As_Libyan_Authorities_Arrest_Networks_Of_Foreign_Agents

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Also of interest...

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[John Dibble]

It seems that at the moment the protests are in the east of the country, where Kadhafi has been hated for a long time. Until the protests spread to Tripoli, his regime will probably be not in too much danger.

SKADOOSH!

[John Dibble]

William Hague has suggested Gaddafi may be on his way to Venezuela (?)

If so the Grauniad comments will go into melt down

Apparently Chavez's government has denied this. I think at this point it would be crazy even by his standards to give shelter to this guy - it would be a PR nightmare.

[John Dibble]

Oh, yeah. He speaks...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12533069

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...seriously? You'd think that someone who's been in power for four decades could think of something that's a less obvious lie than that.

[John Dibble]

Foreign reporters are now able to enter the country, or at least those controlled by the protesters. It sounds like the military in the eastern areas has defected almost entirely to the opposition side and is keeping the peace there, so things in those areas are stabilizing for the time being from the sounds of it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12546806

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[John Dibble]

Gaddafi may have ordered his forces to sabotage the oil fields.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/166687.html

[John Dibble]

The man is delusional and so are his progeny.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bc99db2e-3f74-11e0-a1ba-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1EoDesHK1

"Colonel Muammer Gaddafi expects to take on an advisory role in any new regime in Libya according to his son, al-Saadi Gaddafi."

[John Dibble]

Eastern anti-Gaddafi forces are preparing to march on Tripoli.

http://www.npr.org/2011/02/24/134017782/Libya-Latest?ps=cprs

[John Dibble]

Gaddafi seems to have realized to a degree that fear isn't working - now he's trying bribery.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/terrorism-security/2011/0225/Libya-s-Qaddafi-offers-400-per-family-as-rebels-close-in-on-Tripoli

[John Dibble]

Confirmation that Gaddafi is indeed still in Tripoli:

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/2011225165641323716.html

[John Dibble]

New BBC headline: Libya protests: Gaddafi says 'all my people love me'

The protestors are not from real Libya, you see.

No - they are and they love him, it's just that they've been drugged by bin Laden so they don't realize it.

[John Dibble]

Gaddafi may have made some headway in regaining a bit of control in his recent attacks. Also, eastern rebel leaders are considering asking for foreign military support in the form of airstrikes against Gaddafi military assets.

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Witnesses-Pro-Gadhafi-Forces-Attack-2-Eastern-Towns-117227003.html
http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/africa/news/article_1623125.php/Gaddafi-attempts-to-retake-several-Libyan-cities-1st-Lead

[John Dibble]

I wonder if one would be allowed to venture the opinion that it would more more advisable to intervene on the side of Gaddafi or if that would be considered a 'trolling' opinion - or perhaps hateful or something of that nature.

If I were to venture such an observation, it would be based on the many years of reliable oil-delivery the gentleman has to his credit, and the fact that however wonderful the bearded 'democracy activists' or rebel-freedom-fighters may be, they are a complete unknown regarding the oils.

Well, ignoring any ethical considerations one might make in regards to this position, I would say that Gaddafi's reliability on the oil front at this point would be highly questionable. Even if the rebellion at large was quashed I imagine you would still have a number of guerrilla groups remaining for quite some time who would be more than happy to disrupt Gaddafi's oil operations at every turn, especially considering that the pro-Gaddafi intervention by the West would be for the sake of getting that oil in this scenario.

Really, any government that ends up running Libya is going to want to sell that oil - the money from that is going to be essential to running anything, I imagine.

[John Dibble]

I don't want to sound like a moderate hero, but I'd be very cautious with intervention talk. Remember, unlike Egypt or Tunisia, those are not massive protests: this is a civil war already.

Should international community intervene with force or not? I really don't know

All I know that there's always a risk such a mission can turn into another creppy "nation-building" which, I dare to say, is going to be much worse both for Libya and the region, that Gaddafi now.

We should probably avoid any nation building - the opposition seems to have a handle on things for the most part in regards to keeping things running. Anything we do should only be aimed at getting Gaddafi out to keep the conflict from becoming prolonged.

[John Dibble]

Well, it appears the bastard is using child soldiers. Wish I could say I was surprised.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/gaddafis-child-fighters-lay-in-morgue-as-rebels-thirst-for-rough-justice/story-e6frg6so-1226015771325

[John Dibble]

Rebels are claiming they've taken the oil port of Ras Lanuf.

http://af.reuters.com/article/libyaNews/idAFLDE72320420110304

Then again, so is the government.

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFLDE72321220110304

[John Dibble]

By the way, is actually any oil being exported right now? Either by Gaddafi or the opposition?Because Qadaffi especially will soon have serious problems paying his mercenaries if he can't export oil (that's if he's not press ganging them).

They are at about half-capacity, or 700,000-750,000 barrels per day. This is in no small part due to foreign workers having been evacuated. Oil is still being paid for, but Gaddafi may not be able to actually collect the payments due to most of his assets being frozen.

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFLDE72018W20110304

[John Dibble]

Libya has shut off their internet again.

http://techcrunch.com/2011/03/04/libya/

[John Dibble]

Both Qaddafi and the rebels have taken/lost a city today.  In the words of Sam Spade, "Interesting..."

Well, fighting is still occurring over Zawiya. It's not Gaddafi's win yet, but it's kind of looking like it might end up that way unless something major changes.

[John Dibble]

Apparently the rebels have detained eight British SAS soldiers that were escorting a British diplomat who wanted to talk to the rebel leaders.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5i1dZuBGJTH-ezSVti9O82DwqUxTg?docId=N0319741299378132768A

[John Dibble]

     Preventing semi-genocides isn't so horrible, though I think that imposing a no-fly zone crosses over into aiding the rebels, which is interference in Lybian internal affairs.

You don't think Qaddafi is going to have a jolly old Tea Party with those rebels, do you? The only thing standing between us and some nasty massacring in Lybia is the possibility of an intervention.

     There are different kinds of interventions that exist. I surmise it would be possible to dispatch a multinational humanitarian taskforce to assure the proper treatment of rebels & rebel sympathizers without directly assisting them in their war against Qaddafi's government.

That has to be the most naive thing I've heard all week. How exactly would they do this short of occupying every city in the country and showing a willingness to use lethal force to keep Gaddafi's thugs in check? Such an effort would require far more intervention than a no-fly zone.

[John Dibble]

It was a stupid suggestion in reaction to another dubious suggestion. A no-fly zone seems like something that likewise would require more intervention than just, I don't know, giving the rebels superior arms?

Gaddafi's main advantage right now is that he has air power and can bomb the crap out of rebel positions with near impunity. Short of giving them fighter jets in sufficient number to fight off the bombers you won't really solve the problem this way because it would require us to give up some of our most expensive equipment as well as require us to give rebels a minimum of months of training that it doesn't look like they have in order to use that equipment effectively. Just giving them guns might help them, but without the power to control the air the rebels would still be at a significant disadvantage. Also, the disorganized nature of the rebel forces makes it hard to maintain control of weapons and there is a legitimate worry that weapons currently in rebel hands may end up on the black market after the war is over.

A no-fly zone doesn't require us to set one foot in Libya, it just takes away Gaddafi's big advantage. The rebels have shown that they are able to fight battles on the ground, so it would be a significant gain for them to not have to worry about fighting enemies in the air.

[John Dibble]

And like I said:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZnYbbY57qg

This is insane.

So... politics as usual?

[John Dibble]

Some progress reported outside of Benghazi, at Ajdabiya.  The rebels crossed the desert and entered the city.

Reports are now that they've recaptured Ajdabiya, with Gaddafi's forces retreating towards Brega.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Libyan+rebels+rout+Gadhafi+forces+strategic+town/4508698/story.html

[John Dibble]

Sirt is the scene of major battles, today.  Sirt is both important as a symbol (Qaddafi's hometown and the site of the greatest number of Qaddafi loyalists that actually support him) and as a strategic target (it would allow the main rebel force to connect up with and relieve the beleaguered rebel defenders of Misrata, which has been cut off from the rest of the rebellion for weeks).

The advance was "stalled" as of the 6:30 news.

So I take it that the rebel's experimental Office Chair Calvary didn't work out as hoped?