oregon

[WalterMitty]

here is a little fun fact about oregon:

democratic percentage of the two party vote:

92: 56.6%
96: 54.7%
00: 50.2%

how significant is this trend?

interestingly, bill clinton did better in 92 in oregon than he did in 96.  only a few 92 clinton states had a smaller democratic vote in 96.

[JohnFKennedy]

It tells us Oregon is starting to trend more towards the GOP, soon it will lean GOP, possibly more right wing people moving from California to escape high taxes and the such.

[classical liberal]

Portland is as liberal as Seattle or San Francisco.  Look at Nader's vote in '00.

[bgwah]

1992
56.6% - Clinton
0% - Nader
Total liberal vote = 56.6%

1996
54.7% - Clinton
3.6% - Nader
Total liberal vote = 58.3%

2000
50.2% - Gore
5% - Nader
Total liberal vote = 55.2%

[Gustaf]

1992
56.6% - Clinton
0% - Nader
Total liberal vote = 56.6%

1996
54.7% - Clinton
3.6% - Nader
Total liberal vote = 58.3%

2000
50.2% - Gore
5% - Nader
Total liberal vote = 55.2%

Good stats there. I think Oregon has a weak Dem leaning for the time being...

[JohnFKennedy]

1992
56.6% - Clinton
0% - Nader
Total liberal vote = 56.6%

1996
54.7% - Clinton
3.6% - Nader
Total liberal vote = 58.3%

2000
50.2% - Gore
5% - Nader
Total liberal vote = 55.2%

It still appears to be falling (at least since 96), do you think we could see it eventually being a lean republican state then?

[WalterMitty]

from what i understand, (im certainly no expert on oregon), property rights and guns are two big issues in rural oregon?

[Gustaf]

from what i understand, (im certainly no expert on oregon), property rights and guns are two big issues in rural oregon?

Yeah, that's why rural Oregon is Republican...

[bgwah]

I'm guessing votes for Bush and Nader will fall. Oregon has voted democrat every time since 1984. I think it will remain lean democrat for a while.

[WalterMitty]

pennsylvania also has a declining democratic vote.  it also had a slight decline beween 92 and 96.

democratic percentage of the two party vote in pa:

92: 55.5%
96: 55.1%
00: 52.1%

compare that a state like new york:

92: 59.5%
96: 66.0%
00: 63.1%

new york has to be one of the few states were democrats did better in 2000 than they did in 92.  sorry to stray off topic, i just found that interesting.

[bgwah]

Hold on, WalterMitty's stats are wrong, like Gore got 47% in 2000, not 50.2%

So, restarting

1992
42.5% - Clinton
32.5% - Bush
24.2% - Perot

1996
47.2% - Clinton
39.1% - Dole
8.8% - Perot
3.6% - Nader
Total liberal vote = 50.8%

2000
47% - Gore
46.5% - Bush
5% - Nader
52% - Total liberal vote


Looks like its going UP.

[WalterMitty]

im using the two party vote (rep+dem), excluding independent candidates.

[Gustaf]

Hold on, WalterMitty's stats are wrong, like Gore got 47% in 2000, not 50.2%

So, restarting

1992
42.5% - Clinton
32.5% - Bush
24.2% - Perot

1996
47.2% - Clinton
39.1% - Dole
8.8% - Perot
3.6% - Nader
Total liberal vote = 50.8%

2000
47% - Gore
46.5% - Bush
5% - Nader
52% - Total liberal vote


Looks like its going UP.

OK, I'll make a clarification attempt...

1992: Clinton, 42.48%

1996: Clinton+Nader, 50.74%

2000: Gore+Nader, 52%

[WalterMitty]

that's the reason i was using the two party vote.  it's more meaningful.

you cant add nader's vote to gore's, no more than you can add perot's vote to bush or dole, or buchanan's vote to bush.  

the democratic vote has declined in the last 3 cycles in oregon.

[bgwah]

Well I think Oregon will vote democratic, as usual.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oregon has the highest unemployment rate in the country. No way it's voting for Bush.

[zachman]

That makes little sense. Why does Oregon have much unemployment? I'd imagine a state like WV or MI with jobs that are becoming obselete, would have the highest unemployment rate.

[opebo]

Oregon has the highest unemployment rate in the country. No way it's voting for Bush.

I would say OR may not vote for Bush, but it always has an unusually high unemployment rate, along with Washington, Alaska, and California.  They're just underperforming regions in good times or bad.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That makes little sense. Why does Oregon have much unemployment? I'd imagine a state like WV or MI with jobs that are becoming obselete, would have the highest unemployment rate.

The whole Pacific Northwest is the worst region of the country economically, probably because the airline industry is huge there and that's plumetted since 9/11, also lots of companies are moving out.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I think for right now, the Pacific Coast belongs to the Dems.  Oregon is not leaning GOP at all.  Take out the Nader factor and I'd say Oregon is like a Vermont for the Dems.  

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Bush's horrible environmental record will hurt him majorly there as well.

[StevenNick]

That makes little sense. Why does Oregon have much unemployment? I'd imagine a state like WV or MI with jobs that are becoming obselete, would have the highest unemployment rate.

The whole Pacific Northwest is the worst region of the country economically, probably because the airline industry is huge there and that's plumetted since 9/11, also lots of companies are moving out.

There are a few reasons why Washington and Oregon have such terrible economies.  First, our state governments are constantly tinkering with business regulations; they always pass laws, they never repeal them.  Second, in Washington we have a minimum wage that's tied to cost of living in Seattle, so it's constantly going up, strangling businesses east of the Cascades.  Third, our economies depend on logging, fishing, etc.  Tighter environmental controls set by both the state and federal governments have been slowly killing jobs.  

[classical liberal]

I think for right now, the Pacific Coast belongs to the Dems.  Oregon is not leaning GOP at all.  Take out the Nader factor and I'd say Oregon is like a Vermont for the Dems.  

I'd say that Washington is like Vermont.  Oregon is more like Maine.

[CTguy]

I don't think there is a trend at all.  You have to compare it to national numbers.  Bush did better than Dole in Oregon but he did better nationally as well.  Also, the Nader factor.

[MN-Troy]

That makes little sense. Why does Oregon have much unemployment? I'd imagine a state like WV or MI with jobs that are becoming obselete, would have the highest unemployment rate.

The whole Pacific Northwest is the worst region of the country economically, probably because the airline industry is huge there and that's plumetted since 9/11, also lots of companies are moving out.

There are a few reasons why Washington and Oregon have such terrible economies.  First, our state governments are constantly tinkering with business regulations; they always pass laws, they never repeal them.  Second, in Washington we have a minimum wage that's tied to cost of living in Seattle, so it's constantly going up, strangling businesses east of the Cascades.  Third, our economies depend on logging, fishing, etc.  Tighter environmental controls set by both the state and federal governments have been slowly killing jobs.  

A decent summation on the unemployment problem in the NE.