Why do a lot of posters here think that Virginia is SAFE-Obama in 2012?

[Mechaman]

Seriously.  Virginia has two living breathing examples of Moderate Hero Democrats representing them in the US Senate yet for some reason a lot of the predictions I see for Obama in 2012 show him retaining Virginia while losing Ohio or even friggin Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

Seriously, what's up with that?

Consider this:

2000:

Bush: 52.47%
Gore: 44.44%

2004:

Bush: 53.68%
Kerry: 45.48%

2008:

Obama: 52.63%
McCain: 46.33%

Obama, who was elected in a political environment that was strongly pro Democrat, barely won more than Bush did (who lost the popular vote) in Virginia.
So why does him winning Virginia suddenly mean it's pro-Democrat now in 2012?

[Niemeyerite]

Because virginia is trending democrat. As you can see, kerry had a better result than gore, but he lost the GEwhile gore won it. Virginia is trending blue like missouri is trending red (OK; change colors if you want)

[Mehmentum]

While it is definitely exagerating to have Virginia go blue while Pennsylvania/ New Jeresy votes Republican, growth in Northern Va is making the state more democratic overall.  It's still a purple state, (Obama's margin of victory here was less than 1 point below the National margin of victory), but it's getting more and more blue. 

The only scenario in the forseeable future I can see that Virginia votes Democrat while Pennsylvania votes Republican is if Mark Warner is the Democrat and loses the election by a large margin. 

[Mechaman]

Because virginia is trending democrat. As you can see, kerry had a better result than gore, but he lost the GEwhile gore won it. Virginia is trending blue like missouri is trending red (OK; change colors if you want)

Gore also had Nader to deal with in 2000.  Kerry did not.
Considering that Nader is generally considered left I only seeing that as being damaging to Gore in that election.

[Miles]

My aunt who lives there says lots of Yankees are moving down to VA; the Hispanic growth there is also pretty considerable.
Obama ran a great campaign operation in VA as well.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Because virginia is trending democrat. As you can see, kerry had a better result than gore, but he lost the GEwhile gore won it. Virginia is trending blue like missouri is trending red (OK; change colors if you want)

[phk]

NoVA (and in general most non-Southern suburbia) has been slowly and steadily trending Democratic since 1992.

2004's VA could have easily gone to Bill Clinton in 1996.

[Frodo]

Because virginia is trending democrat.

Considering how Republican and conservative Virginia was until relatively recently, that isn't saying much.  Virginia Democrats have miles to go before they catch up with Republicans, even if trends are slowly turning their way.  This state is certainly within reach -but anyone stating that Virginia is safely in Obama's pocket is smoking something far more potent than anything I've ever tried while in college. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

In 2008, Virginia was a bellwhether, voting for Obama less than one point below the national margin. If things stay the same and Obama wins PV, he will probably carry Virginia. On the other hand, it's hard (but not impossible) to see him carrying it if he loses Pennsylvania. As for NJ, it just can't happen.

[Badger]

Who exactly is saying its safe Obama? I've heard plenty of people say Obama will be competative and quite likely win the state if he's reelected, and  some Republicans say he can kiss it goodbye along with IN, FL and NC. But "a lot" saying its "safe Obama"?

Links please. 

[Mechaman]

Who exactly is saying its safe Obama? I've heard plenty of people say Obama will be competative and quite likely win the state if he's reelected, and  some Republicans say he can kiss it goodbye along with IN, FL and NC. But "a lot" saying its "safe Obama"?

Links please. 

Okay maybe saying that "alot" of posters think it's "safe" Obama was an exaggeration.  What I meant was if Obama wins re-election or loses by a small margin he will win Virginia.
After reading this thread it makes a little more sense, except for the one or two (again an overexaggeration) maps I saw where he wins Virginia but somehow loses Ohio and Pennsylvania.

[Mehmentum]

Okay maybe saying that "alot" of posters think it's "safe" Obama was an exaggeration.  What I meant was if Obama wins re-election or loses by a small margin he will win Virginia.
After reading this thread it makes a little more sense, except for the one or two (again an overexaggeration) maps I saw where he wins Virginia but somehow loses Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Yes, I remember seeing a few odd maps on a Christie vs. Obama thread, and I think that that might be what you are refering to.

However, Obama actually won by a larger margin in Virginia than Ohio.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Virginia is certainly safer for Obama than Ohio and maybe Pennsylvania. Why you think this is so far fetched is beyond me. Virginia's economy is much stronger than either state's and is much more educated government/white collar high tech dependent. These two groups are where Obama's strengths lie as compared to the working class. Basically: NoVA is going to be a stronghold for Obama in 2012. Coincidentally it's the only part of the state that's grown significantly.

Virginia will be D+1 or maybe even D+2 in the next election. This won't transfer the the congressional level just yet but Obama is a great candidate for the modern Virginia. The same trend will go for North Carolina. These trends might not happen if a dark horse GOP candidate who has suburban appeal wins the nomination though. Anyways if you need proof of Virginia's pro-Obama nature look at that PPP poll from late November of last year. In one of Obama's darkest months he had a 50-45 Approval rating there.

[Mechaman]

Virginia is certainly safer for Obama than Ohio and maybe Pennsylvania. Why you think this is so far fetched is beyond me. Virginia's economy is much stronger than either state's and is much more educated government/white collar high tech dependent. These two groups are where Obama's strengths lie as compared to the working class. Basically: NoVA is going to be a stronghold for Obama in 2012. Coincidentally it's the only part of the state that's grown significantly.

Virginia will be D+1 or maybe even D+2 in the next election. This won't transfer the the congressional level just yet but Obama is a great candidate for the modern Virginia. The same trend will go for North Carolina. These trends might not happen if a dark horse GOP candidate who has suburban appeal wins the nomination though. Anyways if you need proof of Virginia's pro-Obama nature look at that PPP poll from late November of last year. In one of Obama's darkest months he had a 50-45 Approval rating there.

I guess because for you know so long Virginia has been seen as this you know real southern type state and Pennsylvania is like y'know a labor state.  From that kind of perspective it seems kind of odd.
I'm sorry if it seems that I am far behind on electoral analysis or demographic trends that it perplexes people.  Admittedly I've only recently got back into analyzing elections and stuff.

[tpfkaw]

For whatever bizarre reason liberals seem to think that Virginia is the new Connecticut.

[DrScholl]

I wouldn't say it's safe, but at this point it appears to be Lean at best. Republican margins had long eroded over time and growth helped that along.

[Sbane]

It's going to be the tipping point state. It's definitely more Democratic than Ohio (don't see how this surprises anyone) and is almost as Democratic as Pennsylvania. I think VA is going to be D+0 on election day, with PA being somewhere around D+1 or 2 and OH being R+1 or 2.

[phk]

It's going to be the tipping point state. It's definitely more Democratic than Ohio (don't see how this surprises anyone) and is almost as Democratic as Pennsylvania. I think VA is going to be D+0 on election day, with PA being somewhere around D+1 or 2 and OH being R+1 or 2.

It's way more elastic than Ohio, that's for sure.

[Verily]

For whatever bizarre reason liberals seem to think that Virginia is the new Connecticut.

C'mon, NOVA is more Connecticut than Connecticut. You have to give everyone that.

Obama will win VA if he wins reelection, barring something odd (GOP VP candidate from Virginia, for example). Obama will probably win VA even if he loses very narrowly, i.e., by less than 1% nationally, as the macro-trends are more against him in other marginal states like Ohio than in Virginia. If Obama loses substantially, i.e., by more than 1%, he will lose Virginia, again barring something odd (Obama drops Biden for Warner for VP, Republicans nominate Christie).

Why are discussing this? All of these things are really obvious.

[DS0816]

Ohio and Florida are likeminded. They're bellwethers, but they don't necessarily lead the charge (margins wise). They're the kind of bellwethers that are icing on the cake. Missouri used to be this way. In 2012, Mo. will likely vote with the winner if President Obama wins re-election rather traditionally (he missed flipping Mo. by 3,913 votes in 2008) where he has an additional, national shift between 2.51% and 5.00%.

Virginia should probably be connected with Colorado. In 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008 their margins were no more than 5 points spread apart. (1996: 0.58%; 2000: 0.33%; 2004: 3.53%; 2008: 2.65%.) And they ended up being Nos. 1 and 2 in most closely reflecting President Obama's popular-vote margin of '08. Since the first post-World War II election of 1948, Va. and Colo. have voted the same in all presidentials except 1992, when Bill Clinton flipped and carried Colo. by a margin of 4.26%. He was 4.38% from flipping Va. That spread of 8.64% is the biggest in the last five election cycles. (These two appear to be thinking somewhat alike.)


I consider Virginia and Colorado rising presidential bellwether states.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I consider Virginia and Colorado rising presidential bellwether states.

You're right, at least for 2008. During the last presidential election, Colorado and Virginia were respectively the weakest democratic and the weakest republican States. I think this won't change significantly in 2012.

[krazen1211]

The state senate elections in 2011 will give us a good idea of where Virginia is.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The state senate elections in 2011 will give us a good idea of where Virginia is.

Not really, considering the turnout differential.

[Napoleon]

For whatever bizarre reason liberals seem to think that Virginia is the new Connecticut.

C'mon, NOVA is more Connecticut than Connecticut. You have to give everyone that.

Whoa there buddy.. NoVA is a belly flop, Connecticut is a beautiful high dive followed by synchronized swimming. Everyone knows that CT is the nicest part of the tri-state area.