In my opinion, the GOP's best shot at winning the Presidency next year, is to win just a few states, and solidify what is already red.
Now, what do I mean by solidify? States like West Virginia, Mississippi, Arkansas, Oklahoma...I don't think they're going anywhere. If anything, it's possible the President does worse than in 2008 especially if the Republicans nominate someone more conservative-appealing than John McCain.
So, let's start with "solid" states, more or less. Obama vs....let's call the GOP nominee "Ginromdaorum" for now.
Obama: 210
Ginromdaorum: 139
Undecided: 189
Now, if the GOP can hold the McCain states, then it can focus on pulling back Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia and the pesky Nebraska CD.
Ginromdaorum: 219
Obama: 210
Undecided: 109
Now, if the GOP can win back Florida, and Ohio, both of which (especially Florida) have been trending well for Republicans, that puts them just 4 electoral votes away...but it becomes difficult.
Ginromdaorum: 266
Obama: 246
Undecided: 26
They need one of those four states: Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado. I, personally, think New Mexico is Obama territory in 2012. Nevada, Colorado and Iowa would be the most likely to flip back. If the GOP wins, let's say, Nevada....it's done.
Ginromdaorum: 272
Obama: 266
I'd say the key is the west. Ohio, Florida and Virginia in my opinion may actually be easier for the GOP to win back than Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa. Anyone else agree?
