The GOP path to victory

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I agree with the consensus above; Iowa makes a much better target for the GOP to flip in 2012 than any Western state. 

Nevada Democrats held their jobs in 2010 even in the worst of years, and when you combine the 15% Hispanic population, strong union organization in Vegas and Reno and the strength of the women's vote, which the GOP hasn't much been trying to win lately, I think Nevada is definitely lean Dem in 2012. 

Iowa, on the other hand, has turned right.  The once popular Dem governor Chet Culver was beaten handily last year, Grassley easily kept his seat, and Democrats who held their seats in the CDs housing Des Moines, Cedar Rapids and Iowa City only did so by narrow pluralities.  Iowa has a negligible liberal population, and voters who gave the state to Obama in 2008 did so because of a flagging economy, whose labor market still hasn't recovered. 

If the Republicans can find a nominee whom Iowa voters also like, they have a better chance of flipping that state in 2012 than they do anything in the West.

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About a dozen states will be very tough and competitive fights.  Obama is not a shabby campaigner, and he is not exactly inept at raising money and mobilizing people either.  But the GOP has some wind at its back.  Lots will happen in the next year and a half too.  It will be interesting.