I agree with the consensus above; Iowa makes a much better target for the GOP to flip in 2012 than any Western state.
Nevada Democrats held their jobs in 2010 even in the worst of years, and when you combine the 15% Hispanic population, strong union organization in Vegas and Reno and the strength of the women's vote, which the GOP hasn't much been trying to win lately, I think Nevada is definitely lean Dem in 2012.
Iowa, on the other hand, has turned right. The once popular Dem governor Chet Culver was beaten handily last year, Grassley easily kept his seat, and Democrats who held their seats in the CDs housing Des Moines, Cedar Rapids and Iowa City only did so by narrow pluralities. Iowa has a negligible liberal population, and voters who gave the state to Obama in 2008 did so because of a flagging economy, whose labor market still hasn't recovered.
If the Republicans can find a nominee whom Iowa voters also like, they have a better chance of flipping that state in 2012 than they do anything in the West.
I had doubts about Iowa being a hold for President Obama in 2012 until I saw this poll about a month ago:
The 2010 election may have been a fluke, one in which the bulk of the campaigning was done by shadowy front groups. If those front groups succeed again in 2012, then liberalism is dead in America for decades. But if they don;t succeed...
The GOP nominee will not have any ties to Iowa, and that is about what the GOP would have to do to flip the state.
Liberal-leaning voters are less likely to vote in off-year elections. It will be up to the Tea Party types to show coherent, effective solutions to economic problems while not offending secular sensibilities of too many people. So far the Hard Right has not been so convincing.
The GOP has to hope for one of several things to happen for it to fully consolidate power (including the defeat of President Obama) in 2012:
1. The President has a crippling scandal that breaks before then.
2. The President has an affair, especially with a non-black woman.
3. The economy melts down again and the Democrats are largely seen culpable.
4. The President faces a military debacle (North Korea invades and conquers South Korea) or diplomatic debacle as a shaky ally of the US becomes ferociously anti-American, as was so with Iran in 1979. Egypt may have looked like such an opportunity, but that chance for Presidential failure seems to be resolved as well as possible for the US.
5. The Religious Right makes big gains among the populace and creates a big new chunk of the electorate willing to vote for any hardships in This World if they bring favor at the Pearly Gates.
6. The GOP manages to have a charismatic nominee (person unknown) who can appeal across regional lines (like Ronald Reagan) with the prospect of a better world through greater profits and lower pay.
President Obama did little to refute the Orwellian bilge from the Hard Right in 2010. With himself as the prime target and knowing it, he will campaign against every calumny. Don't count on the same Hard Right campaign of soundbite smears to be as effective in 2012 as in 2010. Voters will well know the code words of the Hard Right in 2012.
