Future voting patterns....

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I see the electorate like this in 15 years,

You know how this works.  

Dark Red = strong Dem
Light Red = lean Dem
Gray= tossup
Light Blue= lean Rep
Dark Blue = Strong Rep



I think this is actually starting to become the Dem equivalent of the old Republican lock.  I see the Southeast and Southwest, the regions of the country growing the most, trending heavily dem in the next decade.  I think by 2020, the Dems will have around 260 EV leaning their way, not including true swing states.  

[zachman]

HockeyDude, I think that will be pretty accurate. WV will be lean Republican, and Florida will be lean democrat. NH will still be dominated by Republicans but in pres. elections it will be lean democrat.

[classical liberal]

In 15 years the next reapportionment will have occurred.
I put the map more like this:

[angus]

Lots of incredibly rich folks in New England and the middle atlantic Rightwingnut.  Hard to imagine that the Dems will hold sway over that region en mass, without some a priori notion of how the two major parties will evolve.  

[CTguy]

How are you guys making these maps anyways...

And why is Texas no longer a republican state...  

I think in 15 years Florida will be solidly democratic.  Both of those maps look pretty bad for the Republicans though.

[opebo]

I don't think the future is going to look that Democratic.  The two party system tends towards a fairly even division, because the parties shift their positions competitively over time.

[12th Doctor]

In 15 years the next reapportionment will have occurred.
I put the map more like this:

Great map.  I think that Texas and Florida will gain 3, California will lose 1, Ill, PA and NY will all lose 2.  Texas will remain solidly Republican.  PA will treand more republican because the New Deals will be dead and gone and young entrepenurial(sp) types will take their place and I will be governor of North Carolina which will still trend Republican.  

[12th Doctor]

The big question though is: Will the Reps become more liberal or will the Dems become more ocnservative?

[angus]

Great map.  I think that Texas and Florida will gain 3, California will lose 1, Ill, PA and NY will all lose 2.  Texas will remain solidly Republican.  PA will treand more republican because the New Deals will be dead and gone and young entrepenurial(sp) types will take their place and I will be governor of North Carolina which will still trend Republican.  

And Paul Bremer will have found weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.  

[12th Doctor]

My other senario is that the lose of population to the south will make the north (Michigan, PA, Ohio) more like the old south: rural, quite, secluded. This in turn will make the new south (North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia and Florida) more like the old north: urban, entrepenurial... entra...  GOD I can't spell that word, and more worldy, with Atlanta becoming the "New New York" so to speak.

[12th Doctor]

RightWingNut, how did you change the numbers on the state?  I would like to make a map of my own.

[opebo]

My other senario is that the lose of population to the south will make the north (Michigan, PA, Ohio) more like the old south: rural, quite, secluded. This in turn will make the new south (North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia and Florida) more like the old north: urban, entrepenurial... entra...  GOD I can't spell that word, and more worldy, with Atlanta becoming the "New New York" so to speak.

Makes sense.  When you describe it this way I see it as a future with more 'moderate' states.  I would see the old north you mention trending GOP, and the New South staying GOP but more socially moderate.

[12th Doctor]

My other senario is that the lose of population to the south will make the north (Michigan, PA, Ohio) more like the old south: rural, quite, secluded. This in turn will make the new south (North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia and Florida) more like the old north: urban, entrepenurial... entra...  GOD I can't spell that word, and more worldy, with Atlanta becoming the "New New York" so to speak.

Makes sense.  When you describe it this way I see it as a future with more 'moderate' states.  I would see the old north you mention trending GOP, and the New South staying GOP but more socially moderate.

Yeah that's the way I see it to be honest with you.  If this is the senario, then I think that the Reps would become more moderate on social issues, but not to the point of embracing abortion and things of that sort.

[7,052,770]

MS is more likely to gain an EV, not lose on.,

[CTguy]

Atlanta wont become the new New York anytime soon.  Creationism is still taught as science in biology classes there.

[12th Doctor]

Atlanta wont become the new New York anytime soon.  Creationism is still taught as science in biology classes there.

Not in a cultural way, so much as it will become a economic power house.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

MS is more likely to gain an EV, not lose on.,

Same is probably true with Connecticut.  Both MS and CT lost in 2000, and will probably not lose in 2010.  Montana is more likely to gain a 2nd DC (just missed out in 2000) than Idaho is to gain a 3rd.  And NH will probably keep its 2nd CD.  Doubling NV from 3 to 6 is also a bit much.  These are more likely the totals in 2020 or 2030.  

I agree that NM and UT will gain a CD in 2010, and the trends in the Northeast and Midwest look pretty accurate.

[CTguy]

Atlanta wont become the new New York anytime soon.  Creationism is still taught as science in biology classes there.

Not in a cultural way, so much as it will become a economic power house.

I don't see Atlanta becoming an economic powerhouse like New York unless some terrorist attack shakes up Wall Street and stocks need to somehow be traded differently.  Otherwise it would be too risky for corporations to be headquartersed in an area outside NY Metro.  

Perhaps the internet could change things somewhat.  Economists talk about hysteresis and how like minded corporations exploit other like minded corporations by being centered around eachother.  This way they can latch onto eachothers business.  If you've ever noticed furniture shops being located around eachother or a bunch of lamp shops in the same area...  your first thought would be why would so many stores that compete with eachother be in the same area...  it's because it's the most cost effective way to conduct business.  The same is true for large corporations...  

If the internet changes that somehow then NY will lose its calling for corporations to centralize in.  But I don't think it's gonna happen, the market is just too structured here and it would take a long time for a shakeup like that.  Of course if we get hit again with another terrorist attack, I won't hold my breath.  After 9/11 everyone said NY was done but it doesn't seem to have impacted NYC at all longterm.

[CTguy]

MS is more likely to gain an EV, not lose on.,

Same is probably true with Connecticut.  Both MS and CT lost in 2000, and will probably not lose in 2010.  Montana is more likely to gain a 2nd DC (just missed out in 2000) than Idaho is to gain a 3rd.  And NH will probably keep its 2nd CD.  Doubling NV from 3 to 6 is also a bit much.  These are more likely the totals in 2020 or 2030.  

I agree that NM and UT will gain a CD in 2010, and the trends in the Northeast and Midwest look pretty accurate.

CT will definitely not lose another seat...  We just barely lost one last time even though our population grew.  And we are still growing slow and steady because of migration from NYC.  So we should be able to maintain what we have unless suddenly all the illegal immigrants in Texas and California get voting rights or something...  in that case every state will lose a vote probably.

[12th Doctor]

Atlanta wont become the new New York anytime soon.  Creationism is still taught as science in biology classes there.

Not in a cultural way, so much as it will become a economic power house.

I don't see Atlanta becoming an economic powerhouse like New York unless some terrorist attack shakes up Wall Street and stocks need to somehow be traded differently.  Otherwise it would be too risky for corporations to be headquartersed in an area outside NY Metro.  

Perhaps the internet could change things somewhat.  Economists talk about hysteresis and how like minded corporations exploit other like minded corporations by being centered around eachother.  This way they can latch onto eachothers business.  If you've ever noticed furniture shops being located around eachother or a bunch of lamp shops in the same area...  your first thought would be why would so many stores that compete with eachother be in the same area...  it's because it's the most cost effective way to conduct business.  The same is true for large corporations...  

If the internet changes that somehow then NY will lose its calling for corporations to centralize in.  But I don't think it's gonna happen, the market is just too structured here and it would take a long time for a shakeup like that.  Of course if we get hit again with another terrorist attack, I won't hold my breath.  After 9/11 everyone said NY was done but it doesn't seem to have impacted NYC at all longterm.

You bring up some good points, but it has been the evelution of history that centers shift.  I'm not saying that New York will be irrelivant by 2020 by any means, but I think that the moving of Philip Morris from NYC to Richmond is proof of the fact that technology has drastically changed the way that we do business and companies will not be so shy about packing-up and if they see there interests better served else, where.  I think that NYC will start to loose to other cities as time goes on and if the current trend southward continues, then it is likely that Atlanta will benifit the most.

[angus]

 Supersoulty that's a good point.  Sixty years ago NY had twice as many electoral votes as CA, now CA has nearly twice as many as NY.  And American Airlines, worlds largest carrier, moved from Chicago, IL to Fort Worth, TX in the late 90s.  But it's more of a Westward, or Southwesterly trend, I think.  Maybe that's nitpicking.  It brings up the point about how the Kerry people like to suggest they don't need any states in "The South" because Republicans racked up victories without winning any of those states for almost a hundred years!  But back in those days that region had only about 20% of the total, whereas now it may be more like 30 to 35% of the total, depending on what you count.

I am curious as to why you keep suggesting Atlanta though.  At first, I thought it was an obvious reference to Futurama (New New York, the lost city of Atlanta, etc.)  But now I going to go out on a limb and assume you're serious.  Why Atlanta, Georgia?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not going to be so arrogant as to try to predict future trends in all 50 states...

Basically what will probably happen is:

1. What's left of the old North-South divide will disappear.
2. An East (Democrat)-West (Republican) divide will open up.

[CTguy]

Atlanta wont become the new New York anytime soon.  Creationism is still taught as science in biology classes there.

Not in a cultural way, so much as it will become a economic power house.

I don't see Atlanta becoming an economic powerhouse like New York unless some terrorist attack shakes up Wall Street and stocks need to somehow be traded differently.  Otherwise it would be too risky for corporations to be headquartersed in an area outside NY Metro.  

Perhaps the internet could change things somewhat.  Economists talk about hysteresis and how like minded corporations exploit other like minded corporations by being centered around eachother.  This way they can latch onto eachothers business.  If you've ever noticed furniture shops being located around eachother or a bunch of lamp shops in the same area...  your first thought would be why would so many stores that compete with eachother be in the same area...  it's because it's the most cost effective way to conduct business.  The same is true for large corporations...  

If the internet changes that somehow then NY will lose its calling for corporations to centralize in.  But I don't think it's gonna happen, the market is just too structured here and it would take a long time for a shakeup like that.  Of course if we get hit again with another terrorist attack, I won't hold my breath.  After 9/11 everyone said NY was done but it doesn't seem to have impacted NYC at all longterm.

You bring up some good points, but it has been the evelution of history that centers shift.  I'm not saying that New York will be irrelivant by 2020 by any means, but I think that the moving of Philip Morris from NYC to Richmond is proof of the fact that technology has drastically changed the way that we do business and companies will not be so shy about packing-up and if they see there interests better served else, where.  I think that NYC will start to loose to other cities as time goes on and if the current trend southward continues, then it is likely that Atlanta will benifit the most.

I am still failing to see why it will be Atlanta rather than another metropolitan city such as Las Vegas or Houston.  Why Atlanta specifically.  And is your theory that since Atlanta will remain culturally conservative, Georgia will remain a Republican state like Texas even though it will be dominated by a large metro area the way New York now is?

[CTguy]

I'm not going to be so arrogant as to try to predict future trends in all 50 states...

Basically what will probably happen is:

1. What's left of the old North-South divide will disappear.
2. An East (Democrat)-West (Republican) divide will open up.

Why will the East be democratic and the West Republican.  With the exception of New England, the West Coast seems A LOT more liberal than the East Coast... Or will the parties reverse again and the Republicans will become the party for progressives.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Look at this: