Wisconsin turning Red?

[5280]

It's demographics are changing.  I could see it happen in 2012 if not, then in 2016.

What do you guys think?

[DS0816]

I think the margin will be even greater in Wisconsin for a 2012-re-elected Barack Obama.

The 44th president won Wis. by 13.91% in 2008, which made it 6.65% more Democratic than on average to the rest of the country. If Obama wins re-election nationally by an additional 2.51% to 5.00%, he'll carry Wis. in the upper-10s%. If he wins re-election by a margin double that of his 2008 national performance, Wis. will be in his column by at least 20 points … leaving his Republican challenger unable to get 40% of the statewide vote.

Republicans haven't won Wisconsin since 1984. In 1988, George Bush became the second Republican elected to the presidency without the State of Wisconsin in his column (following 1924 Robert LaFollette, the Progressive nominee who carried his home state in the election to a full term of Republican Calvin Coolidge; when you think of this, it really means that '88 Bush became purely the first prevailing GOPer who failed to carry Wis. which, in a third-straight term won by the GOP, lost this state to the losing Democratic challenger, Michael Dukakis).

[Napoleon]

That's not how vote margins work...

[DS0816]

That's not how vote margins work...

Please be more specific.

[Antonio the Sixth]

1992 : R+1.21
1996 : D+1.81
2000 : R+0.3
2004 : D+2.84
2008 : D+6.64

If you meant "red" Atlas-wise, I agree with you.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Wisconsin seems particularly vulnerable to large, unpredictable, volatile swings, so maybe.

[Skill and Chance]

1992 : R+1.21
1996 : D+1.81
2000 : R+0.3
2004 : D+2.84
2008 : D+6.64

If you meant "red" Atlas-wise, I agree with you.

It looks like a lean D state that particularly likes Obama.  NM might be similar.

[Miles]

Wisconsin seems particularly vulnerable to large, unpredictable, volatile swings, so maybe.

[timothyinMD]

I think the margin will be even greater in Wisconsin for a 2012-re-elected Barack Obama.

That was a good laugh

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I see no reason why Obama won't do better there than nationwide next year.

[timothyinMD]

He may, but I doubt with the way things are going that Obama gets more than 56.22% in Wisconsin.  He could very easily lose Wisconsin.

I'd picture Obama dropping in the vast majority of the states

[Antonio the Sixth]

1992 : R+1.21
1996 : D+1.81
2000 : R+0.3
2004 : D+2.84
2008 : D+6.64

If you meant "red" Atlas-wise, I agree with you.

It looks like a lean D state that particularly likes Obama.  NM might be similar.

Why would WI "particularly like Obama" ? Let alone NM, which has come from a lean-R State to a solid-D one in a bit more than two decades.

[tpfkaw]

1992 : R+1.21
1996 : D+1.81
2000 : R+0.3
2004 : D+2.84
2008 : D+6.64

If you meant "red" Atlas-wise, I agree with you.

It looks like a lean D state that particularly likes Obama.  NM might be similar.

Why would WI "particularly like Obama" ? Let alone NM, which has come from a lean-R State to a solid-D one in a bit more than two decades.

Nothing that voted for Dubya in '04 is "solid D."

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just look at the 2008 numbers.

[tpfkaw]

Is Missouri solid R?  It was as Republican relative to the national average as New Mexico was Democratic.

(And both similar cases; Obama overperformed in the West, McCain overperformed in the "Clinton South").

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is Missouri solid R?  It was as Republican relative to the national average as New Mexico was Democratic.

(And both similar cases; Obama overperformed in the West, McCain overperformed in the "Clinton South").

It's called trend, not overperformance. The "Clinton South" trending republican and the southwest trending democrat are the two main facts of the last 20 years, I fail to understand how you didn't notice it.

[DrScholl]

I don't see a trend for that happening. Even when it has been relatively close, it still remained in the D column and the county percentages have remained rather stable over a number of cycles.

[tpfkaw]

Is Missouri solid R?  It was as Republican relative to the national average as New Mexico was Democratic.

(And both similar cases; Obama overperformed in the West, McCain overperformed in the "Clinton South").

It's called trend, not overperformance. The "Clinton South" trending republican and the southwest trending democrat are the two main facts of the last 20 years, I fail to understand how you didn't notice it.

Um, no.  The "Clinton South" is the "Clinton South" because Clinton won it (as well as Montana and Arizona...).  A "trend" would imply a permanent change, as opposed to a reaction to the events of 2008.  If one were to imagine 2008 being between a generic Republican and a generic Democrat, Obama performed better than would be expected in the West and McCain performed better than would be expected in the "Clinton South" (though that had more to do with anger over the results of the Clinton/Obama primary and racism as opposed to any appeal McCain might have had in that area).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just look at the numbers, and you'll realize it goes far beyond 2008. Actually Clinton was the kind of exception in the trend and delayed this region's shift to the republicans, but even so you easily see that even in 1996 this region was already going away from democrats.

[Oakvale]

1992 : R+1.21
1996 : D+1.81
2000 : R+0.3
2004 : D+2.84
2008 : D+6.64

If you meant "red" Atlas-wise, I agree with you.

It looks like a lean D state that particularly likes Obama.  NM might be similar.

Why would WI "particularly like Obama" ? Let alone NM, which has come from a lean-R State to a solid-D one in a bit more than two decades.

Nothing that voted for Dubya in '04 is "solid D."

New Mexico is pretty solidly D come 2012, I think.

[Person Man]

Its pretty absurd to think that New Mexico, with 45%+ of its voters registering as Democrats AND Obama getting 57% of the vote as anything other than a Democratic state. Perhaps Hispanic-friendly Republicans, like W. can win that state if they are already going to win the election (NM, with maybe the exception of Iowa, was W's closest state...and therefore W would have gotten 274-281 votes before he got NM), but voting for a Republican once in 20 years doesn't make a place a swing state if in the past election one party was killed there. Then again, Colorado Democrats are 2-3 on the Presidential level in the past 20 years and Colorado is considered a Democratic state, albeit one that can be pursuaded to vote for a skilled Republican.

No Republican has won Wisconsin in more than 20 years though. Maybe as the Democrats in that state move to Colorado or Florida or Texas, those states will become more Democratic and the left behind Republicans will make Wisconsin more Republican, but there really isn't any sign of that besides the fact that a bunch of hicks capitalized on disgruntled voters due to the depression.

[Nichlemn]

Its pretty absurd to think that New Mexico, with 45%+ of its voters registering as Democrats AND Obama getting 57% of the vote as anything other than a Democratic state. Perhaps Hispanic-friendly Republicans, like W. can win that state if they are already going to win the election (NM, with maybe the exception of Iowa, was W's closest state...and therefore W would have gotten 274-281 votes before he got NM), but voting for a Republican once in 20 years doesn't make a place a swing state if in the past election one party was killed there. Then again, Colorado Democrats are 2-3 on the Presidential level in the past 20 years and Colorado is considered a Democratic state, albeit one that can be pursuaded to vote for a skilled Republican.

No Republican has won Wisconsin in more than 20 years though. Maybe as the Democrats in that state move to Colorado or Florida or Texas, those states will become more Democratic and the left behind Republicans will make Wisconsin more Republican, but there really isn't any sign of that besides the fact that a bunch of hicks capitalized on disgruntled voters due to the depression.

We're talking just a handful of elections here. With such a small sample size, they don't have a huge amount of predictive power.