Irish general election: 25 February 2011
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  Irish general election: 25 February 2011
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Author Topic: Irish general election: 25 February 2011  (Read 82011 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #425 on: March 05, 2011, 10:47:30 PM »

It is to be a Fine Gael-Labour coalition, again. Official.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #426 on: March 06, 2011, 05:04:07 AM »

Roll Eyes
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #427 on: March 06, 2011, 09:13:49 AM »

Eamon Gilmore just Clegged his party. Sad
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YL
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« Reply #428 on: March 06, 2011, 09:55:56 AM »

Eamon Gilmore just Clegged his party. Sad

Possibly, but there are other possible approaches to coalition government than Clegg's.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #429 on: March 06, 2011, 10:03:16 AM »

Eamon Gilmore just Clegged his party. Sad

Possibly, but there are other possible approaches to coalition government than Clegg's.

True. Let's hope Labour hold their own in this.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #430 on: March 06, 2011, 11:46:45 AM »

Labour are used to being in coalition governments with Fine Gael though; which is a big difference. The key thing for them to do if they want to avoid slipping back to their traditional level of support is to protect the interests of labour (with a small 'l') as much as possible and to maintain a profile of their own. As the latter shouldn't be a problem it's the former that matters.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #431 on: March 06, 2011, 01:09:18 PM »

Yeah, the Lib Dem comparisons really aren't accurate. Which isn't to say that this approach doesn't carry risks for Labour, but people didn't vote for them to be in opposition...

As expected, it's being framed as a "national government", which is interesting and probably a good tactic.

EDIT: Or a "Government for National Recovery", as it says in the joint programme.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #432 on: March 06, 2011, 01:19:58 PM »

Does it qualify as a 'Grand Coalition'?
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Verily
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« Reply #433 on: March 06, 2011, 01:24:53 PM »

Yeah, the Lib Dem comparisons really aren't accurate. Which isn't to say that this approach doesn't carry risks for Labour, but people didn't vote for them to be in opposition...

As expected, it's being framed as a "national government", which is interesting and probably a good tactic.

EDIT: Or a "Government for National Recovery", as it says in the joint programme.

Look at how much good that did for the SPD.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #434 on: March 07, 2011, 01:42:34 AM »

With 113 seats out of 166, this government has the largest majority in the history of the state, beating the 101 seats held by the coalition that took power in 1992.
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #435 on: March 07, 2011, 06:51:40 AM »

The coalition's Programme for Government
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #436 on: March 07, 2011, 07:07:51 AM »

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"Revolutions" are not made in a day.
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What barbarous rhetoric.
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Was this a campaign issue? What is being proposed?
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I suggest using the gentleman with the cap as much as possible. He is exactly like your annoying tourism ads, except that he doesn't have red hair and speaks English with a Sootkirry accent instead of German with an English one.
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It seems to me that Ireland was increasingly united rather than divided. Granted, it was united in opposition to the Fianna Fáil government, but...
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"Will be recognized as a"? Not "will be a"? Either the chip on your shoulder is even more massive than I thought, or this is a blatantly honest example of


 
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Is this a sly dig at the parting Tanaiste or what?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #437 on: March 07, 2011, 07:11:11 AM »

Ah, here is the section on constitutional reform...

"Constitutional Reform
The context for reform
Building on the well-established and tested Constitution of Ireland, and decades of judicial
determination of rights under that Constitution, we will establish a process to ensure that our
Constitution meets the challenges of the 21st century, by addressing a number of specific
urgent issues as well as establishing a Constitutional Convention to undertake a wider review.
Parliamentary reform issues
We will prioritise putting to the people by referendum a number of urgent parliamentary
reform issues:
• Abolition of the Seanad
• A referendum to amend the Constitution to reverse the effects of the Abbeylara
judgment to enable Oireachtas committees to carry out full investigations.
• A referendum to protect the right of citizens to communicate in confidence with
public representatives.
Other specific priority amendments
We will also give priority to the following specific constitutional amendments:
• A referendum to amend the Constitution to allow the State to cut the salaries of judges
in restricted circumstances as part of a general cut across the public sector.
• A referendum to amend the Constitution to ensure that children’s rights are
strengthened, along the lines recommended by the All-Party Oireachtas committee.
Broader constitutional review
We will establish a Constitutional Convention to consider comprehensive constitutional
reform, with a brief to consider, as a whole or in sub-groups, and report within 12 months on
the following:
• Review of our Dáil electoral system.
• Reducing the presidential term to 5 years and aligning it with the local and European
elections
• Provision for same-sex marriage.
• Amending the clause on women in the home and encourage greater participation of
women in public life.
• Removing blasphemy from the Constitution
• Possible reduction of the voting age.
• Other relevant constitutional amendments that may be recommended by the
Convention."

I like the last bullet point! (Also, there is blasphemy in the Constitution?)
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #438 on: March 07, 2011, 07:28:40 AM »


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A Supreme Court judgment in 1999 in the only blasphemy case brought (an attempted private prosecution) failed because the court decided that they couldn't determine what the offence comprised.

The outgoing Government, on the advice of the AG, put in place blasphemy provisions in the recent Defamation Act. No attempted prosecutions yet.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #439 on: March 07, 2011, 07:34:44 AM »


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I fail to see anything blasphemous in that provision. Evil, yes. Blasphemous, no.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #440 on: March 07, 2011, 08:19:18 AM »

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Wow, the Irish constitution is even worse than I imagined.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #441 on: March 07, 2011, 08:51:50 AM »

I don't get the Clegg analogy certain posters seem intent on drawing.

Unlike in Clegg's case, the public here pretty much fully expected a FG-Lab coalition to replace the outgoing government for quite some time now (with the possible exception of a period late in the campaign when a FG majority seemed possible).

Unlike the LibDems, Labour have not been party of near permanent opposition here. This is not the first time we'll have had a FG-Lab coalition, more like the 7th.

Of course it's difficult going into Government at a time like this, and of course, they could suffer electorally, but Labour (like most parties) are in politics to try and give effect to their policies.

Now whether one thinks they did a good deal depends on one's reading of the Programme for Government (linked earlier), their execution of same, and their representation at Cabinet (as yet unclear, looks like 5 of 15 Ministries). Unlike Clegg, Gilmore is leading a party which has no particular qualm (in principle) with doing a deal with FG (though they may have issues with the nature of said deal, or aspects thereof).
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #442 on: March 08, 2011, 09:49:51 AM »

Details on who gets which post in the Cabinet are expected later today.

The 31st Dáil convenes tomorrow. Enda Kenny is expected to be the sole nominee for Taoiseach, and is will receive the support of not just his own party and Labour, but it seems 3 independents -  those being Noel Grealish (Galway W), Michael Lowry (Tipp N) and Michael Healy-Rae (Kerry S). It doesn’t seem to be the case though that they will generally be supporting the Government.



By the by, the next upcoming election will be for the Seanad (pronounced ‘sha-nad’), the (very weak) upper house of the Irish parliament. Elections for it are always held shortly after new Dáils are convened.

Of its 60 seats, 11 are appointed by the Taoiseach.
3 are elected by graduates of Trinity College, Dublin.
3 are elected by graduates of the National University of Ireland.
The remaining 43 'panel' seats are elected by members of the incoming Dáil, the outgoing Seanad, and sitting members of County and City Councils.

The Taoiseach’s nominees will likely be dominated by FG and Labour members. It’s not uncommon though for Taoisigh to nominate one or two wildcard outsiders. This might be more likely this time given the substantial majority the Government will enjoy. Or maybe not, it’s entirely at Enda Kenny’s discretion.

Graduate voting is done by postal ballot. Polls close on 26 April. (Nominations closed a few days ago, ballots will be issued on 21 March.) The graduates tend to elect independents, and indeed often the most noteworthy Senators.

For the 43 ‘panel’ seats, nominations close on the 21st; ballots issue on 7 April; and polls close on 26 April. As the electorate is entirely politicians, voting is usually fairly predictable going down strict party lines. The wildcard element is what independents with usually no obvious candidate will do. Independents don’t tend to get elected from these panels – but there appears to be a more concerted effort this time than usual. They also form a larger block now than is usually the case, following good local elections in 2009.

Given that we're quite likely to be having a referendum within the next year on abolishing the Seanad, this election is probably even less relevant than usual.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #443 on: March 08, 2011, 10:01:13 AM »

Getting back to kevinstat's earlier question on whether SF can win enough Seanad seats such that they may nominate a Presidential candidate for this autumn's Presidential election (which requires the backing of 20 TDs or Senators) - I don't think so.

With 14 TDs, they would need 6 Senators to be able to do so. By my quick review of the figures, they are looking at 0-3 Senators in the upcoming Seanad elections, depending on whether they can get votes/transfers from independents or the ULA.

They have, I think, approximately 0.72 of a quota for 2 of the panels; and 0.6 of a quota for another; and less than half a quota for the other 2.

With the full backing of the ULA, those figures would raise to about 0.96 of a quota for 2 panels; and 0.8 for the other.

All that said, I've not seen anything suggested about whether such a deal with the ULA could be done; they don't get on very well and SF really don't have much of anything to offer ULA, except maybe throwing their support for one of those potential seats behind a ULA candidate.

So, if SF want a Presidential candidate, I should imagine they'll have to go looking for a handful of non-SF nominees within the Dáil or Seanad and at the time being, I think that could be difficult.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #444 on: March 08, 2011, 10:10:43 AM »

They might offer the ULA to nominate a ULA Presidential candidate. Grin
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freek
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« Reply #445 on: March 08, 2011, 10:59:00 AM »


Given that we're quite likely to be having a referendum within the next year on abolishing the Seanad, this election is probably even less relevant than usual.

Would such a referendum pass?
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #446 on: March 08, 2011, 11:17:48 AM »

Given that we're quite likely to be having a referendum within the next year on abolishing the Seanad, this election is probably even less relevant than usual.

Would such a referendum pass?

Most likely, yes.

There's fairly broad cross-party support for it now, and it's hard to identify too many against, nevermind identifying those against who would be willing to put substantial effort into a campaign.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #447 on: March 08, 2011, 11:43:32 AM »

As I have just found out while wikiwalking, Ireland has a collective vice presidency, consisting of the Chief Justice, the CC, and the CC's Seanad counterpart. So... would that third co-vp be replaced, and by whom?
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #448 on: March 08, 2011, 12:09:20 PM »
« Edited: March 08, 2011, 12:11:48 PM by Јas »

As I have just found out while wikiwalking, Ireland has a collective vice presidency, consisting of the Chief Justice, the CC, and the CC's Seanad counterpart. So... would that third co-vp be replaced, and by whom?

My recollections are that the President of the High Court is the stated replacement for the Chief Justice where that position is vacant or where the CJ is "unable to act".
Similarly, the leas-Ceann Comhaire (i.e. deputy CC) is the CC's stated replacement.
And the leas-Cathaoirleach of the Seanad is the Cathaoirleach's stated replacement.

The Commission, for it is they, can act on the agreement of any 2 of their number, even if one of the three spots is vacant for whatever reason.

If, for whatever reason, the Commission was unable to act, the Council of State, IIRC, could assume Presidential powers.
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