MI-EPIC/MRA: Romney 46% Obama 41%

[DS0816]

Barack Obama won Michigan in 2008 by a margin of 16.45%. That was 9.19% more Democratic than on average to the rest of the country.

If any Republican were to win Michigan in 2012, the White House would flip.

After the Republicans first competed in 1856, Michigan voted for the party right thought to 1928 Herbert Hoover. Every Republican elected from 1860 Abraham Lincoln to 1956 Dwight Eisenhower had Mich. in his column (same with Pennsylvania and Minnesota, to name two others).

I look at this and have a good laugh; Democrats will be carrying Michigan for decades!

[Brittain33]

Barack Obama won Michigan in 2008 by a margin of 16.45%. That was 9.19% more Democratic than on average to the rest of the country.

I think his numbers in Michigan were inflated (as in Wisconsin, Illinois, and California for different reasons) because of the economic collapse and McCain's high-profile and fumbled pull out of the state late in the season... but that it's still going to be a difficult state for Republicans to win. Unemployment is high, but goodness, they know it didn't start in 2008 and Obama saved GM and made the best go of saving Chrysler anyone can do.

[Heimdal]

I look at this and have a good laugh; Democrats will be carrying Michigan for decades!

I guess a lot of Republicans thought the same thing about Virginia prior to november 2008.

"Longtime Republican state, haven't voted for a Democrat since LBJ in 1964. Sure thing."

[Associate Justice PiT]

I look at this and have a good laugh; Democrats will be carrying Michigan for decades!

I guess a lot of Republicans thought the same thing about Virginia prior to november 2008.

"Longtime Republican state, haven't voted for a Democrat since LBJ in 1964. Sure thing."

     Or Vermont in 1992, which had only voted Democratic once in 168 years before that. If you look at it again in 2008, you see that it voted for Obama by more than 2-to-1. That state has changed its political allegiances quite a lot in a relatively short timeframe.

     Sometimes a state will trend dramatically for purely internal reasons. While Michigan will likely be a lean Democratic state for decades provided no major changes occur in the parties, it's silly to assume that that must be the case. Michigan is actually a rather likely candidate for trending significantly, seeing as how its historic automobile industry is proving increasingly insufficient to support the state's economy.

     Also, welcome to the forum.

[Badger]

This screams outlier. Romney carries MI if the national climate is so bad he's also carrying WA, OR and NJ, plus competetive in CA and CT.

[DS0816]

Barack Obama won Michigan in 2008 by a margin of 16.45%. That was 9.19% more Democratic than on average to the rest of the country.

I think his numbers in Michigan were inflated (as in Wisconsin, Illinois, and California for different reasons) because of the economic collapse and McCain's high-profile and fumbled pull out of the state late in the season... but that it's still going to be a difficult state for Republicans to win. Unemployment is high, but goodness, they know it didn't start in 2008 and Obama saved GM and made the best go of saving Chrysler anyone can do.

Look at this site's past presidential election maps and notice the margins in, say, Michigan during the 1860-1956 period when Mich. supported all prevailing Republicans. Plenty of inflated margins. Especially with 1904 Teddy Roosevelt.

[pbrower2a]

I look at this and have a good laugh; Democrats will be carrying Michigan for decades!

I guess a lot of Republicans thought the same thing about Virginia prior to november 2008.

"Longtime Republican state, haven't voted for a Democrat since LBJ in 1964. Sure thing."

     Or Vermont in 1992, which had only voted Democratic once in 168 years before that. If you look at it again in 2008, you see that it voted for Obama by more than 2-to-1. That state has changed its political allegiances quite a lot in a relatively short timeframe.

     Sometimes a state will trend dramatically for purely internal reasons. While Michigan will likely be a lean Democratic state for decades provided no major changes occur in the parties, it's silly to assume that that must be the case. Michigan is actually a rather likely candidate for trending significantly, seeing as how its historic automobile industry is proving increasingly insufficient to support the state's economy.

     Also, welcome to the forum.

The auto industry has been doing so badly in Michigan that agriculture will soon be the #1 industry.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Didn't Romney pen the op/ed suggesting that the Detroit auto industry should be allowed to die?

[pbrower2a]

Didn't Romney pen the op/ed suggesting that the Detroit auto industry should be allowed to die?

That would probably be a kiss of death for his campaign in Michigan. Surely, Mike Huckabee would use it if he needed it. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Actually no, he called for what basically ended up happening in the end with both going into a "managed bankruptcy" only minus the billions of dollars in taxpayer money that delayed it from December to June and the special deal the UAW got.

Page 118 "No Apology" by Mitt Romney,

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He goes on to say that if encouraging reports so far are accurate, the company will have a second chance.

Hardly "drop dead, Detroit" by any means.

[Napoleon]

This screams outlier. Romney carries MI if the national climate is so bad he's also carrying WA, OR and NJ, plus competetive in CA and CT.

Actually, Michigan would flip before OR and way before WA or NJ. Bush didn't lose Michigan by that much in 2004 and Republicans aren't poorly organized there. The state is also changing due to population issues. That will have an effect on its political leanings. Detroit is shrinking relative to the state as a whole.

John Kerry won Michigan by only 3.4%.