State Legislature Redistricting

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

The 16th spans four counties to sink Republicans in Hunterdon and Somerset into a Democratic district.



They didn't screw over Codey either, just some Morris County Republicans.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

The 16th spans four counties to sink Republicans in Hunterdon and Somerset into a Democratic district.



They didn't screw over Codey either, just some Morris County Republicans.

Good information, but a lot of these areas in that 16th are more Republican at the local level than they are at the Presidential. Off-year turnout has a bit to do with it. I'll gather the 2005/2009 data for those districts. But I guess I see the logic.

That's true, Christie broke 60% of the two-party vote in that 16th, and Forrester carried it as well. But the fact remains that they've turned a solid GOP district into a marginal one.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

On the successful-gerrymandering side, they have successfully created a D or at least more likely to flip seat in Monmouth County in LD11 while at the same time pitting star incumbents Jennifer Beck and Sean Kean against each other there.

I would expect someone to move. The 12th I believe would be vacant and Republican leaning.

It's actually Kean and Singer paired in the 30th, since Kean (apparently) lives in Wall and Singer in Lakewood. I expect Singer to move to the 12th since it contains much of his old district.

BTW, I see what you mean about overpopulated districts in South Jersey. The 10th is overpopulated by at least 20,000! How far can the deviation be, legally?

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

On the successful-gerrymandering side, they have successfully created a D or at least more likely to flip seat in Monmouth County in LD11 while at the same time pitting star incumbents Jennifer Beck and Sean Kean against each other there.

I would expect someone to move. The 12th I believe would be vacant and Republican leaning.

It's actually Kean and Singer paired in the 30th, since Kean (apparently) lives in Wall and Singer in Lakewood. I expect Singer to move to the 12th since it contains much of his old district.

BTW, I see what you mean about overpopulated districts in South Jersey. The 10th is overpopulated by at least 20,000! How far can the deviation be, legally?

IIRC the absolute legal maximum deviation for state legislature districts is considered to be a 10% difference a district's population and the population of an "ideal" district, but court cases have been successful in challenging district plans with less of a deviation than that, especially when there's a systematic bias in favor of a specific racial group or some such.

Looking at Johnny's link above, it seems your numbers aren't correct. The 10th is overpopulated by only 4602, which is 2.1% above average. For the record, the maximum deviation present is 2.5% over (in the 9th and 28th) and -2.7% under (in the 40th). This isn't really anything out of the ordinary.

After taking a closer look at the map, I notice what I did wrong. It seems Point Pleasant is actually in the 30th.