State Legislature Redistricting

[krazen1211]

The Democrats win in New Jersey: the tiebreaker dude picked their map for the legislature.

Didn't this happen last time too?

Yep, with a different tiebreaker.

They sliced Somerset County between what looks like 6 different districts. And amazingly, they didn't even dissolve an Essex County district as should have been done, although they did push SD-27 into a Morris based district.

I'm not sure what the point of some of these districts are. They sort of went out of their way to screw with the Republican Northwest counties.

[krazen1211]

They sort of went out of their way to screw with the Republican Northwest counties.

I don't know New Jersey geography very well, but, those changes might have been necessary to put in the new minority districts?

Nope, because the Democratic map didn't actually create any new minority districts. Those are in any case in the Essex/Hudson corner of the state, which is the actual northeast, forgive my brainfart earlier.

It was the GOP map that increased black/hispanic districts to 2 each, up from 1.


If you look at the map, districts 23, 24, 16, and 15 could have all been drawn to not split counties like that.

Why on earth does that 16th span across 4 counties? Move Princeton and South Brunswick back into the 15th/17th and you'd have a much cleaner map. The Democrats though were trying to screw over some Democratic legislator they didn't like, and obviously Codey as well which is why they fed him to the Morris County GOP.


The population variance was sort of abused (GA 2000 style). Almost all the South Jersey districts are over population and all the Northeast Essex/Bergen based ones are under.

[krazen1211]

The 16th spans four counties to sink Republicans in Hunterdon and Somerset into a Democratic district.



They didn't screw over Codey either, just some Morris County Republicans.

Good information, but a lot of these areas in that 16th are more Republican at the local level than they are at the Presidential. Off-year turnout has a bit to do with it. I'll gather the 2005/2009 data for those districts. But I guess I see the logic.

For example, in that LD-16, Corzine only got 47% of the vote in 2005, and he would have gotten utterly drenched here in 2009.

[krazen1211]

Cody still has a shot of surviving in his new district just because of his name recognition and residual good will from when he was acting governor.

Possibly. I'm not sure who exactly has residual good will for the early 2000s here, which sourced a lot of the problems that showed up in the late 2000s, but the name recognition at least is valid.

If he does hold on, Essex County will continue to have representation well beyond its actual population, but that's nothing new.

Anything though is an improvement from the current map. At least the 4th is still winnable, and I could see the GOP winning in that 14th and 27th. I'm not seeing any sort of other pickup opportunity elsewhere, though, barring personal problems like Whelan in the 2nd.

[krazen1211]

On the successful-gerrymandering side, they have successfully created a D or at least more likely to flip seat in Monmouth County in LD11 while at the same time pitting star incumbents Jennifer Beck and Sean Kean against each other there.

I would expect someone to move. The 12th I believe would be vacant and Republican leaning.

[krazen1211]

If you look at the map, districts 23, 24, 16, and 15 could have all been drawn to not split counties like that.

I know you know this and also we agree this map is quite the Dem gerrymander in places... do you think it matters if they split counties or not, since county government is relatively weak? It could be even more democratic this way because it keeps the county organizations in competition with each other rather than have a single county party anoint its representative for the race, as happens so often.

The counties in this case share some types of municipal services between them, such as road cleaning,  athletic facilities, libraries, and tax authorities. And you're right in the sense that county parties hold more power, but in that 16th, South Brunswick is really part of the NYC/Turnpike/Route 1 metro. It's just kind of an oddball attached to Hunterdon county like that which aren't; even ignoring county lines it could be made much cleaner than it is. The 11th is at least a bit more consistent; it just happened to pluck all the Dem leaning areas in Monmouth and shove them into 1 district rather than spread them across 4.

Rosenthal has some good points; in order for the GOP to get a majority, they'd have to really gerrymander up Essex/Hudson/Passaic to create a 3rd seat up there. So I can sort of see why they didn't get that But based on that 16th and 11th, the Democrats were able to cherry pick towns in the deep GOP areas and create a pair of more marginal districts (while bleaching and packing the neighboring 30th and 12th); this really is inconsistent with Rosenthal's 'continuity of representation' line, which only seems to have applied in the northeast counties.

Neither the 11th or 16th had to be changed much at all. The fact that they're allowed gerrymander the Republican areas of the state, but not the Democratic areas, kind of stings. I know its sour grapes and all, but it makes you wonder what on earth the point of this commission setup is. I'd much rather have legislators drawing maps which would be much more acceptable.


Oh well, if we get a favorable congressional map (3-6-3), like we got last time, I won't complain.

[krazen1211]

Probably true. I would love to actually see the competing map; I have to figure its something like this, which creates a GOP leaning 27th (sea green?), 2 black districts (28th and 29th), and the at least within reach 35th (other green) where Christie did pretty well.

[krazen1211]

I wonder if people who consider Obama's visit to the IOC a massive failure will say the same about Chris Christie's attempt to personally lobby Rosenthal into choosing the R gerrymander over the D gerrymander.

There's no doubt in my mind that such is true. Christie himself would probably admit it; he's going to be paying the price for it most likely.

[krazen1211]

Minnesota maps

http://www.gis.leg.mn/redist2010/plans.php?plname=L1101_0



I don't know enough about the area, but clearly seems GOP favored, and going nowhere.

[krazen1211]

doesn't the current Minnesota map favor wild swings? I believe at one point earlier in the decade, the Republicans had a 60% majority in the state house and by 2010, only had 35% of the seats. The after 2010, they regained a majority (albeit less than 60%).

The state looks to be kind of like that. The Democrats have a bunch of strong districts in Minneapolis, St. Paul, and the Iron Range, and the GOP has a few in the exurbs, but the suburban areas look inherently swingy.

I think the GOP tried to pack the Dem suburbs and hold the rest of them. They probably have to gamble a bit to hold a majority.

[krazen1211]

So neither party would really want this to go the courts (but perhaps the Democrats a little less than the Republicans)?

I'd guess the opposite. The Minnesota GOP looks like its on borrowed time; a court won't draw the Great White North Congressional district or some of the 4 way cracks on the legislative map.

Minnesota isn't like the rest of the midwest though. The GOP administered shellackings in places like Michigan, but I think its been a while since any Republican hit 50% in any statewide MN election.

[krazen1211]

MALDEF is attacking the Illinois house map.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/5568895-418/latino-group-says-dem-redistricting-plan-violates-election-law.html



I give them credit for being nonpartisan.

[krazen1211]

http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20110601/NEWS02/106010350/Democrats-diluting-black-vote-data-show?odyssey=tab|mostpopular|text|FRONTPAGE

Oops, they did it again.

[krazen1211]

Gee you mean the Democrats would rather have blacks spread out into more seats thus increasing the Democratic vote in many districts rather than just pack blacks and thus Democratic votes into a few districts therefore making neighboring seats more Republican? What a shocker!

It's merely a lesson learned in tactics. Delaware Democrats show us how to ramp up the count of blacks up to 67% or so as of the last redistricting. Others have taken heed.

[krazen1211]

South Carolina to go for a veto-proof majority.

http://www.free-times.com/index.php?cat=1992209084141467&act=post&pid=11860706111392099

One apparent strategy is to consolidate Democratic districts together, thus pushing one Democratic senator out. For instance, the plan would put Camden Democratic Sen. Vincent Sheheen in the same district as Fairfield County Democrat Creighton Coleman.

Richland County Democratic Sen. Joel Lourie’s district would get squished into Lexington Democrat Nikki Setzler’s.

[krazen1211]

Gee you mean the Democrats would rather have blacks spread out into more seats thus increasing the Democratic vote in many districts rather than just pack blacks and thus Democratic votes into a few districts therefore making neighboring seats more Republican? What a shocker!

It's merely a lesson learned in tactics. Delaware Democrats show us how to ramp up the count of blacks up to 67% or so as of the last redistricting. Others have taken heed.

I correct myself. They actually packed the 1 black represented district up to 68% to limit blacks to 1 district out of 21.

http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20110615/NEWS02/106150363/Delaware-Black-Caucus-rips-Democratic-party-leaders-over-proposed-boundaries


It's OK if you're a Democrat!

[krazen1211]

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Oh so the complaint is that the districts aren't gerrymandered to be majority black and have a bunch of Hispanics too?

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Uh...go look at a map and take note of what this type of district would look like.

It sounds like the Democrats are actually just doing what Republicans on this forum screaming against the VRA frequently call for, just drawing compact districts based on neighborhoods and ignoring racial figures. But krazen just wants an excuse to scream about how those evil evil white liberals are really extreme racists and want to screw over blacks for no discernible reason whatsoever (basically his standard logic in a post like this.)

That's not the case at all. Else, Wilmington would be in 2 Senate districts, not 3, especially given the Democrats' typical systematic underpopulation of their districts under the 10% rule.

The reason to both quite discernible and obvious. Packing blacks up to 68% is done to ensure the surrounding districts elect whites. The only difference is that white liberals from other states selectively cry about it.


Here's the house map too. They did an exemplary job in making sure none of the Dover districts had a plurality of blacks.

http://legis.delaware.gov/legislature.nsf/1688f230b96d580f85256ae20071717e/afdf2ea2da07d72e85257893006a10c0/$FILE/Statewide%20(Proposed).pdf

[krazen1211]

No that's not discernible because there's no advantage to electing white Democrats as opposed to black Democrats. And "packing" Wilmington makes sense simply because Wilmington is one city and there's no reason to carve it up into a million pieces just because that might give another district a better chance of electing a black. If Wilmington can fit into two districts, then why should it be cut into three?

I can't figure out a way to draw a plurality black VAP seat in Dover. The best I can get is 45% white to 43.9% black VAP, it's plurality black in total population but that number isn't taken into account. Why it's split three ways is rather obvious, since Dover is the only town in the area that votes for Democrats, it makes more sense to split it and get three districts capable of electing Democrats instead of one.

The bolded is precisely my question.

You seem to have not looked at the map. Wilmington COULD be a pair of 57% or so black districts that divide the city in half and encompass the entire city and a small number of surrounding precincts.

Instead, they created the following.

1 district with 68% black VAP (that numerous liberals have claimed constitutes 'packing') that covers a portion of Wilmington and goes into Edgemoor and down to New Castle.

A 2nd district that takes a piece of Wilmington and goes up to New Jersey.

A 3rd district with 50.8% black VAP that takes a piece of Wilmington and goes down to Newport.

Certainly curious to have 3 districts touching a city that has the population for 2 districts and not 1 district wholly inside the city.

The black legislative caucus is asking the very valid question as to why that last district was drawn to be only 50.8% VAP when there are surplus blacks in the 2nd district that doesn't need to be entering Wilmington at all.

The proposal for Dover was to clearly split some precincts to collect the numerous black neighborhoods. You can't do that on the app.

[krazen1211]

If the maps are based on geographic reasons, there is no argument for any unfairness toward anybody, because no one is being deliberately disenfranchised. There is no racism involved here.

I am completely in favor of getting rid of the VRA and having standards that call for strict, geography based redistricting. The VRA is being heavily misused.

Well, then I await the 'geographical' reason for the 3 way split of Wilmington.

[krazen1211]

So you are proposing two majority black seats, which is exactly what the status quo is. Except one happens to be more black than the other which doesn't mean much. The most likely representative from a 60% black VAP district is a black Democrats. Same with a 50% black VAP district. Hell even the case with a 45% black VAP district.

The second district is easily explainable in that it sounds designed to take in Republican or marginal areas and prevent a possible swing district. Pack Wilmington like that and you could end up with something like 2 safe Dem seats and one winnable seat, as opposed to the likely 3 safe Dem seats.

BTW once again if white liberals are all extreme racists who hate blacks more than anyone who did millions support Obama over Hillary?

That answer doesn't really make too much sense, because it they wanted to safeguard that 2nd district (given where it is, it doesn't really need to be), they would have skimmed some of the nonwilmington blacks from the 1st overpacked district, and you would still the remainder of the wilmington blacks for the 3rd district. As it stands, the Delaware Black Caucus has been unable to claim the 3rd district as they are extremely unhappy that it is represented by a white and hence are asking for a much better population distribution.

I wouldn't call anyone racist. There is merely a preference in making sure that whites have the best chance at winning almost all of the seats, as they have succeeded in doing in places like New England. They would not have cracked the San Fernando Valley, for instance, without such a preference. Nor would New Jersey Democrats have parceled the North Area of Hudson County into numerous districts.

Presumably, they like the idea of maximizing their potential job opportunity, and they don't like how many blacks vote on some issues such as homosexuality. But that's why the Delaware Black Caucus is asking the question.

[krazen1211]

Louisiana precleared.

http://www.dailyjournal.net/view/story/f9b272a433524b65a1620d58f33ea9a1/LA-XGR--Louisiana-Redistricting/

The redesign of the Louisiana House's 105 seats received clearance Monday from the U.S. Justice Department, paving the way for fall elections under the new maps and coming despite complaints from black lawmakers that the plan dilutes minority voting strength.



The obvious response, as the GOP has been much better about creating black districts than their Democratic predecessors.

[krazen1211]

The GOP sure are better, those second VRA congressional districts in Alabama, Louisiana and South Carolina are proof of that. Wait a minute, there are none, because those would be losses and therefore not beneficial.

The Democratic party in South Carolina is seeking 0 black districts.

The Democrats created 27 black districts in the last Louisiana map. This one has 29. That sounds terrific doesn't it?

[krazen1211]

The numbers are out on NC redistricting.

http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/3b9a1b58949b4bbcbd5a2e2426c811e4/NC--Capitol-Letter/


There are currently 18 House members and seven senators who are black. The proposed maps would create 24 House districts and nine Senate seats where black voters constitute a majority.




The assertion of NC Democrats of course is quite amusing given their history of losing at court litigation.