US House Redistricting: Mississippi

[cinyc]

FWIW, the current representatives are from:

MS-1 Nunnelee, Tupelo
MS-2 Thompson, Bolton (Hinds County)
MS-3 Harper, Pearl (Rankin County)
MS-4 Palazzo, Gulfport

Is it possible to put all of Madison County in MS-2?

I kind of like going for the Mississippi is just like Iowa solution.

You can, if you really want to, but its split right now along those exact lines. So I left them there.

I'm not sure that it is even particularly that White.  I think it could be a case similar to DeKalb Georgia, where you have white suburbanites followed soon by black suburbanites.

Between 2000 and 2010, White population increased 18%, Black population by 29%.

The southern part of Madison County is nothing like DeKalb, Georgia.  Its approximately 60,000 residents are 68.5% white, 70.2% by VAP.  If you add the fast-growing Gluckstadt precinct currently in MS-2, the population goes up to approximately 70,500 and the white percentage to 70.3%/71.7%.   Most of the black residents live immediately adjacent to the county line or in the northern part of the county.

The part of Hinds County that is in MS-3 is 62.1%/66.0% white.  That might sound low, but it isn't, really, compared to some Jackson voting districts that are 95%+ black.

Were you to add the missing Madison and Hinds pieces to MS-2, you can draw a very good map that generally respects county lines except to balance population, without the need for MS-2 to drag all the way down to the Louisiana border.  Every district on this map has a deviation +/-10 from the ideal CD population.  MS-2 happens to be exactly correct:

MS-01 (blue) is 71.5% VAP white and has 9 more residents than ideal;
MS-02 (green) is 58.8% VAP black and is ideal;
MS-03 (purple) is 61.3% VAP white and has 2 more residents than ideal;
MS-04 (red) is 72.9% VAP white and has 10 residents fewer than ideal.

Unfortunately, the Columbus/West Point/Starkville Golden Triangle area ends up split up, as in the current map.  Columbus is in MS-01; West Point Starkville and some southern Columbus suburbs are in MS-03.  As does Rankin County from the rest of the Jackson metro - but that was a conscious decision made in the past for racial reasons.  In a color-blind world, the three major counties of the Jackson metro would be kept together, which would allow the Golden Triangle to stay together in the same CD.

[cinyc]

I'm not sure that it is even particularly that White.  I think it could be a case similar to DeKalb Georgia, where you have white suburbanites followed soon by black suburbanites.

Between 2000 and 2010, White population increased 18%, Black population by 29%.

The southern part of Madison County is nothing like DeKalb, Georgia.  Its approximately 60,000 residents are 68.5% white, 70.2% by VAP.  If you add the fast-growing Gluckstadt precinct currently in MS-2, the population goes up to approximately 70,500 and the white percentage to 70.3%/71.7%.   Most of the black residents live immediately adjacent to the county line or in the northern part of the county.

Nixon in 1968 had a majority in DeKalb county in a 3-way race.

In 1980, it was Reagan's 28th strongest county, with Carter only carrying the county by 5%.  In 1988, it was Dukakis's 23rd strongest county, and along with Fulton, the only two counties outside the Black Belt carried by Dukakis.
In 2000, it was Gore's 2nd strongest county, putting up a 44% plurality.

Or going further south, Clayton has gone from 35% for Dukakis in 1988 to 83% for Obama in 2008.

Madison historically had a substantial black population, which then had some suburban growth from folks leaving Jackson.  But if they could afford it, white folk would probably prefer Rankin to Madison.  Moreover, the blacker part of Jackson is the north side.  So whites can also go south and west in Hinds County and keep in whiter areas.  But it is likely that Madison will become the preferred area for suburban-seeking blacks.

No doubt the southern part of Madison may turn into the Jackson version of DeKalb county in 10 or 20 years.  But it's not quite there yet, according to the 2010 census.  The part of MS-02 in Madison County is still majority white.

No doubt I could balance population within 1% without crossing county lines if I had to.  Muon2 already did.  I'm not convinced that's where the legislature is headed, though.