When will Missouri go blue?

[Fwillb21]

While Missouri has been reliably red for the past several cycles, I'm starting to wonder when that will change. I would imagine that the suburbs of STL and KC are trending D just like the suburbs of most other large cities.

[Xeuma]

Not in this current paradigm. I have no idea when that will change, nor does anyone else. I'm fairly confident, however, in saying that when Missouri does flip, it's not going to be because of an ongoing trend in the suburbs or whatever else we talk about today.

[Agonized-Statism]

Look to 2008. Drive up turnout in Kansas City and St. Louis, suppress it in the southwest. Or, win by a plurality by having a conservative third party split the vote.

[Grassroots]

Never, not until some major realignment happens. MO is solidly red right now and will probably become redder with the fiscally left wing trend of the GOP.

[One Term Floridian]

Look to 2008. Drive up turnout in Kansas City and St. Louis, suppress it in the southwest. Or, win by a plurality by having a conservative third party split the vote.

Yeah but back then Obama was doing significantly better in the rurals than either McCaskill or even Kander. It would be unfeasible to try to replicate that. Dems should only bother investing in the 2nd district and the occasional gubernatorial or senate race. Jason Kander should have it in him for another statewide run there

[Orser67]

Compared to the national average, it has a relatively small share of individuals with college degrees, and a relatively larger share of non-Hispanic whites, rural population and evangelical Protestants. Each of those demographic realities favor the Republican Party, and there's no reason to expect Missouri to change in the short- and medium-term future.

[IceSpear]

When Democrats nominate a #populist

See sig.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Never, not until some major realignment happens. MO is solidly red right now and will probably become redder with the fiscally left wing trend of the GOP.

Which almost certainly will happen by either 2028 or 2032.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Theoretically 2020 if the GOP is completely fractured, fragmented, and demoralized, and the Dem nominee runs an absolutely stellar campaign.

Otherwise it will take a realignment.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

When VA goes Red.

[R.P. McM]

Anecdotally, I served in the Army, and spent some time in central MO. Yeah, they're f**king racists. I remember visiting an antique store with a Puerto Rican gal and a Jamaican gal — both officers in my class — and enduring the evil-eye from the staff as we inspected some Klan paraphernalia. It's a trashy place in a trashy state. Sorry.   

[un]

Not for a while. Missouri is pretty much a Safe R state at this point, ever since the close results in 2008, it's been going further and further red on a national level, and only went for McCaskill in 2012 cause of her opponent. It's much closer on a state level, but still not within a margin that would be convincing. There is however, a path to a blue Missouri. It's small, but the main place you have to look is the State Auditor election, the one place where Democrats won in 2018 Missouri. They won by 6 points, for two reasons. One, they swing the suburbs in their favor in the future, the easier of the two goals, since Democrats have had a large swing in suburban areas in 2016 and 2018, even in Missouri, where the suburbs are more Republican than average, like with McCaskill. Of course, most suburbs went to the Democrats in 2018 for State Auditor. Second, the much harder goal, don't get destroyed in rural Missouri. In 2016, Hillary lost the state by 20 points, a lot of it due to Trump sweeping rural Missouri, north and south, by margins around 65% and 80%, to Clinton who only had around 30% at best, and 15% at worst. In the State Auditor election, the Democrats didn't get absolutely destroyed, they still lost by a lot, but nothing compared to Clinton. So while the path to winning Missouri is extremely small, less than 1% small, it's certainly there. But that won't be seen for a while, and certainly not against Trump.