Canada: Conservatives Within Striking Distance of Parliamentary Majority

[Frodo]

...if elections were suddenly called.  It appears 40% is the magic number:

TORIES AHEAD IN CANADA AS VIEWS ON IGNATIEFF FALL MARKEDLY

PUBLISHED ON MAR 10, 2011



The Conservative Party maintains the upper hand in Canada’s federal political scene, and support for the Liberal Party has dropped as negative perceptions of its leader have increased, a new Vision Critical / Angus Reid poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,021 Canadian adults, 39 per cent of decided voters and leaners (unchanged since February) would support the governing Conservative Party in the next federal election.

The Liberal Party is second with 23 per cent (-3), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 17 per cent (-1), the Bloc Québécois with nine per cent (=), and the Green Party also with nine per cent (+3). Three per cent of decided voters say they would vote for other parties, including seven per cent of those aged 18-to-34.

Only the Conservatives and the Greens are ahead of their 2008 federal election totals, and the Liberals have fallen below the 25 per cent line for the first time since December 2009.

[Nhoj]

Don't the greens tend to over poll?

[Marokai Backbeat]

The Liberal Party continuing to be just as impressive as ever.

[Hash]

Angus-Reid's polls are more and more outlierish these days, given that nobody shows the Liberals as low as that. Though granted, the PurgaTories are riding high and knowing Harpy, he'll probably call an election. I hate this stupid ass country.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Angus-Reid's polls are more and more outlierish these days, given that nobody shows the Liberals as low as that. Though granted, the PurgaTories are riding high and knowing Harpy, he'll probably call an election. I hate this stupid ass country.

I don't really understand why, though, aside from the incompetent management of the Liberals, and systemic reluctance for alot of people to support the NDP, as I don't really see how they've done anything remarkable at all.

[Lief 🗽]

Eh, in a country like Canada where you have four center-left parties and one center-right party, and FPTP, you really just need to not piss off the 25-30% of the country that is conservative and look less incompetent than the Liberals (which is easy) for the 10-15% that are centrist swing voters and you should be doing well enough.

[Hash]

Angus-Reid's polls are more and more outlierish these days, given that nobody shows the Liberals as low as that. Though granted, the PurgaTories are riding high and knowing Harpy, he'll probably call an election. I hate this stupid ass country.

I don't really understand why, though, aside from the incompetent management of the Liberals, and systemic reluctance for alot of people to support the NDP, as I don't really see how they've done anything remarkable at all.

It beats me too as well, considering that:
-the PurgaTories are under judicial investigation for campaign financing fraud in 2006 and 4 of them including 2 senators are indicted or something
-the minister for Intl Dev is under fire for forging a document and lying under oath to committee about it. Though admittedly it's tough to name at least two cabinet ministers who have a functioning brain and/or more than 3 active brain cells

Plus the whole thing about the huge deficit, the G20 summit being a fraud and so forth. But I suppose the attack ads are really working, and Canadians are very gullible people who'll believe anything they're fed if it's repeated time and time again. They basically fell for the "coalitions are illegal"/"coalitions are like military coups" in 2009.

[Leftbehind]

[..]and systemic reluctance for alot of people to support the NDP

Because they're seen as a wasted vote, or...?

Reminds of the UK in the 80's. A True Blue Tory, but with the left so hopelessly split, basically unopposed.

[You kip if you want to...]

Sort've off topic, but will the Greens actually get a seat anywhere. Love how our Greens can win 1 on 1% of the PV... targetting resources and all that.

[redcommander]

Sort've off topic, but will the Greens actually get a seat anywhere. Love how our Greens can win 1 on 1% of the PV... targetting resources and all that.

Elizabeth May is apparently going to run in Saanich-Gulf Islands. I don't think she stands much of a chance though.
2008 Results
Conservative Gary Lunn 43.43%
Liberal Briony Penn 39.36%
Green Andrew Lewis 10.45%
New Democrat Julian West 5.69%
Others 1.08%

[You kip if you want to...]

Sort've off topic, but will the Greens actually get a seat anywhere. Love how our Greens can win 1 on 1% of the PV... targetting resources and all that.

Elizabeth May is apparently going to run in Saanich-Gulf Islands. I don't think she stands much of a chance though.
2008 Results
Conservative Gary Lunn 43.43%
Liberal Briony Penn 39.36%
Green Andrew Lewis 10.45%
New Democrat Julian West 5.69%
Others 1.08%

Hmm, still 8% and no seats is hardly fair. If any "Westminister system" country needs electoral reform, it's the Canadian House of Commons...

[Smid]

Actually, it's Senate reform that Canada needs. It's neither population based, nor province based, and it's unelected but still partisan. Seriously, it should either be province-based with all provinces having equal representation, or population-based with representation proportionate to the population of the province. Should be elected, too, preferably with each province being an at-large Multi Member electorate.

[You kip if you want to...]

Actually, it's Senate reform that Canada needs. It's neither population based, nor province based, and it's unelected but still partisan. Seriously, it should either be province-based with all provinces having equal representation, or population-based with representation proportionate to the population of the province. Should be elected, too, preferably with each province being an at-large Multi Member electorate.

Yeah, the British Lords is also a pile of complete crap.

[Smid]

Actually, it's Senate reform that Canada needs. It's neither population based, nor province based, and it's unelected but still partisan. Seriously, it should either be province-based with all provinces having equal representation, or population-based with representation proportionate to the population of the province. Should be elected, too, preferably with each province being an at-large Multi Member electorate.

Yeah, the British Lords is also a pile of complete crap.

That's why I prefer AV in the Commons, PR for the Lords.

[Leftbehind]

The House of Lords needs abolishing and the HOC needs PR. Although what you're proposing is largely what they're offering.

Sort've off topic, but will the Greens actually get a seat anywhere. Love how our Greens can win 1 on 1% of the PV... targetting resources and all that.

Not so long ago they got 15% and no seats, mind.

[minionofmidas]

Seriously, it should either be province-based with all provinces having equal representation, or population-based with representation proportionate to the population of the province.

Why would province-based be preferrable to some in-between formula that overrepresents the small provinces but still elects more Senators from Ontario - which of course Canada has for the Commons?

[Hash]

The Senate ought to be abolished. But the Liberals won't do so, and Harpy has seen the advantages of the current patronage system senate.

[RFQ]

Liberals have been an embarrassment ever since we lost the likes of financially prudent people like Paul Martin.

Many liberals are disillusioned and are left with no other choice but to look to the conservatives.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As pleased as I am to have helped to increase the quality of debate on the sh*thole that is this particular board, it doesn't belong here and has been moved entirely be accident. A request has been filed/lodged/reported/etc to move it to International General Discussion, where it ultimately belongs.

[Хahar 🤔]

As pleased as I am to have helped to increase the quality of debate on the sh*thole that is this particular board, it doesn't belong here and has been moved entirely be accident. A request has been filed/lodged/reported/etc to move it to International General Discussion, where it ultimately belongs.

I think this works just fine. Certainly it's better than everything else on this board.

[Tender Branson]

Oh, I see Canada has been annexed by the US overnight.

Interesting though that Harper still has a chance to win the Canadian Gubernatorial election.

[Boris]

Both the horse-race aspect and the political personalities have generally always paled in comparison to politics south of the border (maybe because Canadians are inherently more reasonable than most peoples), but the Liberals have really succeeded in selecting a leader even less captivating and interesting than Stephen Harper. I can't comment on anything less superficial since I'm not informed (but I do know more about this useless topic than 99.9% of Americans!), but I think the next election's debates are going to induce even less excitement than the Cheney-Lieberman debate. 

[Хahar 🤔]

The Conservative attack ads I saw when I was in Canada basically called Ignatieff an American who hates the UN. All of us Americans were awestruck.

[Boris]

The Conservative attack ads I saw when I was in Canada basically called Ignatieff an American who hates the UN. All of us Americans were awestruck.

Are they implying that the University of Calgary > Harvard

[Nichlemn]

It's quite surprising how the polls have indicated a preservation of the status quo more or less uninterrupted since the 2006 election. I wonder how many people would have predicted that a Canada would still be ruled by a Conservative minority come 2011.

As for this poll, several others indicate Conservatives with about 36% support, so it doesn't look like we'll see an election soon.