What percent of the vote would Obama have sans the financial crisis?

[So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass!]

Looking at the polls of the time, I still think he would of probably won. But if it had been delayed until a few days/weeks/months after the election, how much would it have it have hurt is margin by?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think he would have prevailed with a 3-4 margin. He would have lost IN and NC, probably FL and maybe OH.

[Mechaman]

I think he would have prevailed with a 3-4 margin. He would have lost IN and NC, probably FL and maybe OH.

^^^^^^
This.

Without a financial crisis I don't see usually Republican states like Indiana and North Carolina going near Obama.  However public perception of Bush not being that high I could still see Obama winning Ohio.  Florida would be a tossup.  States like Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado would've still voted Dem due to the demographics of the Obama Coalition.

[phk]

Probably like D+4 instead of D+7.

Obama - 311
McCain - 227

[Miles]

Probably like D+4 instead of D+7.

Obama - 311
McCain - 227

[Smid]

I think he would have prevailed with a 3-4 margin. He would have lost IN and NC, probably FL and maybe OH.

I don't know about Indiana... the state swung pretty strongly in the 2006 mid-terms against Congressional Republicans, so it's possible that they may have continued that theme by giving them another thump in 2008.

[Nichlemn]

I think he would have prevailed with a 3-4 margin. He would have lost IN and NC, probably FL and maybe OH.

I don't know about Indiana... the state swung pretty strongly in the 2006 mid-terms against Congressional Republicans, so it's possible that they may have continued that theme by giving them another thump in 2008.

The thing is, he won IN narrowly even with the financial crisis, so you'd have to give the crisis little weight for this to happen.

[Mr.Phips]

He probably would have gotten around 51% of the vote like Bush in 2004. 

[phk]

He probably would have gotten around 51% of the vote like Bush in 2004. 

Yes. I think 51-47 is possible with 2% for Barr, Nader.

[Smid]

I think he would have prevailed with a 3-4 margin. He would have lost IN and NC, probably FL and maybe OH.

I don't know about Indiana... the state swung pretty strongly in the 2006 mid-terms against Congressional Republicans, so it's possible that they may have continued that theme by giving them another thump in 2008.

The thing is, he won IN narrowly even with the financial crisis, so you'd have to give the crisis little weight for this to happen.

That's true enough, although it's also possible that the financial crisis re-inforced people's vote for him, rather than caused people's vote for him, however I'm merely being devil's advocate now...

[DS0816]

… 52.68%.

[Mechaman]

… 52.68%.

If Obama was bound to do that good (considering as you keep pointing out that he won 52.87% of the popular vote IRL) without a financial crisis why the hell would he do only .2% better if there was one?

A last minute gaffe by an opponent might give one .2% more of the popular vote come election date.  A financial crisis that happened a month before election?  A bit more I think.

For the record I see Obama winning around 50.8-51.2% of the vote without a crisis.

[DS0816]

… 52.68%.

If Obama was bound to do that good (considering as you keep pointing out that he won 52.87% of the popular vote IRL) without a financial crisis why the hell would he do only .2% better if there was one?

A last minute gaffe by an opponent might give one .2% more of the popular vote come election date.  A financial crisis that happened a month before election?  A bit more I think.

For the record I see Obama winning around 50.8-51.2% of the vote without a crisis.

This site says 52.87%; other records show it was 52.92%.

Obama polled at least five points better than McCain early in the election season. That would be just a 7.46% shift. 2000 Bush had a 8.00% shift (of Bob Dole's 8.52% loss). Ronald Reagan shifted about 11.80%. Obama was going to win 2008 regardless of the meltdown. And he was going to win it by at least 7 points.

[Antonio the Sixth]

… 52.68%.

If Obama was bound to do that good (considering as you keep pointing out that he won 52.87% of the popular vote IRL) without a financial crisis why the hell would he do only .2% better if there was one?

A last minute gaffe by an opponent might give one .2% more of the popular vote come election date.  A financial crisis that happened a month before election?  A bit more I think.

For the record I see Obama winning around 50.8-51.2% of the vote without a crisis.

This site says 52.87%; other records show it was 52.92%.

Obama polled at least five points better than McCain early in the election season. That would be just a 7.46% shift. 2000 Bush had a 8.00% shift (of Bob Dole's 8.52% loss). Ronald Reagan shifted about 11.80%. Obama was going to win 2008 regardless of the meltdown. And he was going to win it by at least 7 points.

On October 3, Obama was polling 51.3% according to fivethirtyeight (47.4% for McCain). If even after the start of the crisis Obama was only at 4%, he could only have been lower before. If I remember well, 538 showed the election tied in the summer.

[Dancing with Myself]

I really don't think Obama would have won without the financial crisis. If he did it would have been a very close margin

[Mr.Phips]

I really don't think Obama would have won without the financial crisis. If he did it would have been a very close margin

No incumbent party has ever held the White House during a recession(which began in December 2007) and with the incumbent's approval ratings so low.