Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

[Meeker]

One of the campaign offices of We are Wisconsin, a left-wing PAC supporting the Democrats, was destroyed in a fire Saturday morning. The office was helping out State Rep. Jennifer Shilling who is running against Dan Kapanke. Shilling's office was also damaged a little.

http://lacrossetribune.com/news/local/article_b5828580-bacf-11e0-a78e-001cc4c002e0.html

[Хahar 🤔]

Hmm?  I've always learned "country" is one with actual borders.

Yes, absolutely. Which is why I excempted that other def. of "nation". They don't need to currently be primary borders.

Of course, here in Germany we call our states "countries", so...

What exactly is the difference between Land and Staat?

[ag]

Hmm?  I've always learned "country" is one with actual borders.

Yes, absolutely. Which is why I excempted that other def. of "nation". They don't need to currently be primary borders.

Of course, here in Germany we call our states "countries", so...

What exactly is the difference between Land and Staat?

Country and state, respectively

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Kim Simac, Republican challenger to Sen. Holperin, compared public education to the Nazis.

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[minionofmidas]

Kim Simac, Republican challenger to Sen. Holperin, compared public education to the Nazis.

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Indeed, at what point will such idiots as this one stop?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a roundup of July campaign finance reports for next week's recalls.

District 2

Robert Cowles (R) - $64,825 raised, $29,826 spent, $98,817 on hand; $166,996 total raised
Nancy Nusbaum (D) - $61,808 raised, $91,658 spent, $104,333 on hand; $239,609 total raised

District 8

Alberta Darling (R) - $165,155 raised, $431,108 spent, $135,429 on hand; $1.1 million total raised
Sandy Pasch (D) - $190,865 raised, $343,399 spent, $63,943 on hand; $622,680 total raised

District 10

Sheila Harsdorf (R) - $106,448 raised, $151,068 spent, $97,343 on hand; $434,181 total raised
Shelly Moore (D) - $95,032 raised, $76,929 spent, $111,610 on hand; $335,038 total raised

District 14

Luther Olson (R) - $64,744 raised, $37,969 spent, $97,432 on hand; $171,856 total raised
Fred Clark (D) - $67,750 raised, $163,401 spent, $67,455 on hand; $294,251 total raised

District 18

Randy Hopper (R) - $106,103 raised, $3,463 spent, $195,564 on hand; $332,811 total raised
Jessica King (D) - $96,372 raised, $180,940 spent, $106,079 on hand; $318,154 total raised

District 32

Dan Kapanke (R) - raised (article doesn't say), $231,912 spent, $48,380 on hand; $882,381 total raised
Jennifer Shilling (D) - $61,270 raised, $171,828 spent, $80,089 on hand; $332,655 total raised

[Eraserhead]

Should public polling of State Senate races be taken at all seriously?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

PPP got the Hansen/Vanderleest race almost exactly right.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Some polls have come out from something called Insider Michigan Politics. No undecideds makes them look sketchy, but they don't look too out of line with the PPP polling:

District 12
Jim Holperin (D) - 53.7
Kim Simac (R) - 46.3

District 18
Jessica King (D) - 54.7
Randy Hopper (R) - 45.3

District 32
Jennifer Shilling (D) - 57.0
Dan Kapanke (R) - 43.0

[HST1948]

So, I'm relatively unfamiliar with these recalls so I'm just going to come out and ask: What are the chances that Democrats win the three seats that they need to take back the Wisconsin state senate and which seats would these be?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Their chances are pretty decent, actually. Dan Kapanke is toast, while Luther Olson and Randy Hopper are tossups that may be leaning slightly to the Democrats. The other three are probably going to hold on.

On the defense side, Wirch isn't going to have any trouble, and Holperin lucked out and got a nutter opponent, so he's probably favored.

[HST1948]

Their chances are pretty decent, actually. Dan Kapanke is toast, while Luther Olson and Randy Hopper are tossups that may be leaning slightly to the Democrats. The other three are probably going to hold on.

On the defense side, Wirch isn't going to have any trouble, and Holperin lucked out and got a nutter opponent, so he's probably favored.

Thanks!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Democratic Party asks for criminal investigation into Darling's campaign finances

http://www.politiscoop.com/component/content/article/35-last-24h-news/439-darling-accused-of-criminal-felonies.html

[Ban my account ffs!]

Democratic Party asks for criminal investigation into Darling's campaign finances

http://www.politiscoop.com/component/content/article/35-last-24h-news/439-darling-accused-of-criminal-felonies.html

She also came out today and said that having recall elections is ridiculous and that if the voters don't like what she's done, they should wait until 2012.

She trotted out the old "elections have consequences" bullsh**t and said she is making her decisions based on what the people wanted in 2010...

But, Ms. Darling... that goes against the Will of the People™.

[Miles]

'Kinda changing topics, but if Democrats take both chambers and defeat Walker by 2013, what are the odds of a mid-decade redistricting?

[minionofmidas]

'Kinda changing topics, but if Democrats take both chambers and defeat Walker by 2013, what are the odds of a mid-decade redistricting?

Given that Republicans somewhat threw away their trifecta here... not as high as they might be.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Pretty unlikely, I'd say; it gets talked about a lot but rarely happens (Georgia and Texas were the only examples in the past decade).

[Torie]

Here is some more chatter about the recall elections for you.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Here is some more chatter about the recall elections for you.

Good article, besides the disgusting boasting about Scott Walker "being vindicated" when his goons in relatively safe districts are in trouble. The reason Democrats aren't going after the Republicans on collective bargaining is that non-unionized swing voters don't care about it as much as the education cuts and public workers are already more than sufficiently fired about it.

None of these districts are bastions of unions. Kapanke's district is rural farmland that's been progressive since the late 1800s, Darling's is a mix of posh urban neighborhoods and exurbs that care little about "union rights" and much more about their education system etc. Democrats are only avoiding collective bargaining because these are red districts and swing voters are more likely to be swayed by their child's education being gutted than public worker's complaining about something that doesn't affect them.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Kapanke's district is pretty Democratic. I'm assuming he's been able to survive so far by keeping a low profile, but obviously that's over.

Kim Simac failed to appear at a debate. Holperin is seriously lucky to get such a flake of an opponent.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

We'll be getting another round of polls from DK/PPP this weekend. They're polling four of the six Republican recalls (presumably Kapanke is getting skipped since he's toast, not sure who the other skip would be).

[Mr.Phips]

Kapanke's district is pretty Democratic. I'm assuming he's been able to survive so far by keeping a low profile, but obviously that's over.

Kim Simac failed to appear at a debate. Holperin is seriously lucky to get such a flake of an opponent.

Kapanke's district is heavily Democratic.  Even John Kerry won there by a pretty solid margin and he only beat a nobody opponent in 2008 by three points. 

[Nhoj]

Here is some more chatter about the recall elections for you.

Good article, besides the disgusting boasting about Scott Walker "being vindicated" when his goons in relatively safe districts are in trouble. The reason Democrats aren't going after the Republicans on collective bargaining is that non-unionized swing voters don't care about it as much as the education cuts and public workers are already more than sufficiently fired about it.

None of these districts are bastions of unions. Kapanke's district is rural farmland that's been progressive since the late 1800s, Darling's is a mix of posh urban neighborhoods and exurbs that care little about "union rights" and much more about their education system etc. Democrats are only avoiding collective bargaining because these are red districts and swing voters are more likely to be swayed by their child's education being gutted than public worker's complaining about something that doesn't affect them.

Not exactly, La crosse is a college town of 50k in the city limits and is the center of the district. What you said is about right for the rest of the district though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

How did Kapanke win the seat to begin with?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

State legislative seats don't always end up being decided by partisan issues. Kapanke probably tried to focus on local issues or something. Like I said, he probably kept a low profile, until he blew it with his run for Congress and supporting Walker's agenda lockstep.

He did only win by slim margins in both 2004 (52.5 - 47.5) and 2008 (51.4 - 48.6).