Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's how it looks to me, at this point:

Cowles is safe, no surprise there.

Darling depends on what kind of margin and turnout Pasch got in Milwaukee; she's doing well in the suburban counties.

Harsdorf will win; she's outperforming her '08 numbers, when she won 56-44.

No idea on Clark/Olsen.

Hopper is doing extremely well in Winnebago; King needs the remaining precincts to go heavily for her (she needs to win there by at least 55-45).

Kapanke is toast, but that's no surprise either.

[ag]

8th and 18th have simply not reported enough to say anything (6 and 8 precincts respectively from a single county each).

[J. J.]

Kapanke 52 48 @ 12%

!

If Kapanke's ahead, it looks like the night will be very good to the GOP incumbents.

He's not anymore, but it's 50-50 when rounded to the nearest percent.

I just posted that, but he'd down by 13 votes with 20% plus reporting.  Do any of the D seats look vulnerable.

Dem seats are next week

I know; I was wondering if any looked vulnerable.

[ag]

Olsen's looking good: 55% w/ a lot reporting (over 1000 votes margin).

[Kevinstat]

Kapanke 52 48 @ 12%

!

If Kapanke's ahead, it looks like the night will be very good to the GOP incumbents.

He's not anymore, but it's 50-50 when rounded to the nearest percent.

I just posted that, but he'd down by 13 votes with 20% plus reporting.  Do any of the D seats look vulnerable.

Dem seats are next week

From what I've heard, one of them should be (the other shouldn't really and doesn't seem to be) but the Republican nominee has put her foot in her mouth a bit so the Democrat is favored there.

[J. J.]

Olsen up 55% @ 37%

[Talleyrand]

As for the Dems, Wirch is safe but Holperin is potentially vulnerable. If things continue like they are going tonight, I don't know if the GOP will target him aggresively, but I think they will, to show their power and to take back one for the Kapanke seat which they will likely lose. Holperin is lucky to have a weak opponent, but his district narrowly leans GOP, making him probably one of the "Blue Dog" style Dems in the state.

[ag]

Olsen's solidifying: 55% w/ 57/126 precincts reporting. But another precinct leaves Hopper w/ only 52%

[ag]

Hopper doesn't look good. McCain got  53% in the one Dodge County precinct in his district, but he only managed 44%. Olsen, though, seems to be making it. 

[Meeker]

I don't see how we can get more than two at this point.

[krazen1211]

Joe Petrie-Patch: Sandy Pasch gets 3,687 in Whitefish Bay, compared to 3,518 for Darling. Barrett beat Walker there 3,929 to 3,714



Hehehehe.

[ag]

Some reporting from the 8th, including first 5 precincts from Milwaukee. Darling down to 55%.

[Sam Spade]

Just FYI

http://www.thenorthwestern.com/article/20110809/OSH0101/110809195/Hopper-takes-Fond-du-Lac-King-takes-Waupun?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE

If correct, then King has to win Winnebago by about 1,500 to 2,000, which isn't looking promising so far.

[ag]

3 more precincts from the 8th and Darling's down to 43%: this looks like a battle of relative turnouts.

[J. J.]

Shilling now up by 53%.

[Sam Spade]

Unless there's something surprising in the two counties that haven't reported yet, I think it's about time to call Olsen.

[ag]

Unless there's something surprising in the two counties that haven't reported yet, I think it's about time to call Olsen.

Yep, looks like that.

[J. J.]

AP called it for Cowles.

Olsen 55% @72%

[ag]

Looks like Kapanke might be the only victim - Shilling's up to 54% and should end up higher.

[Kushahontas]

this is what I get for putting just the tiniest bit of faith in the electorate tbh

[ag]

What's the hell going on the 8th and the 18th? Where are the results?

[J. J.]

Darling is still down. Hooper's up a 15% reporting.  If this was the big test of the labor unions, they just failed.

[Sam Spade]

What's the hell going on the 8th and the 18th? Where are the results?

See above link with regards to 18th.  Have nothing else.  The 8th is slow because you're dealing with people who can't count.

[Meeker]

I don't get why the AP hasn't picked up on those Fond du Lac numbers.

[ag]

Actually, the people, who ostensibly can't count, are reporting faster then the rest of the 8th.

A few more precincts have just reported from Winnebago: King's actually ahead by 96 votes now. On the Fond du Lac side they only have the canvass results for the 14th (Olsen's ahead), but nothing for the 18th.