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| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginiá)
| | |-+  Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
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Author Topic: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition  (Read 76611 times)
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #575 on: August 11, 2011, 07:06:06 pm »


Walker got what he wanted, so he can tack moderate now. The heavy lifting is done.

Yes BRTD, waves can break a gerrymander. I don't see a Dem one in the making for some time myself.  One requirement for it IMO given the current political environment will be a Pubbie president in office who becomes unpopular. I don't see it happening while Obama is in office. I suspect about half the voters or close to it want him leashed.

Yes, this is the legislature, but stuff flows down ballot these days almost seamlessly. State politics has been nationalized, and states are dealing with what are really national issues. JMO.

Are you conceding that Obama will be reelected?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #576 on: August 12, 2011, 02:45:24 am »

Democrats probably shouldn't bother trying to recall Walker. Too risky. Let him keep digging the hole for now. 2014 is going to be an absolute blood bath for Republicans if Obama loses anyway (which is starting to seem more and more likely).
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« Reply #577 on: August 12, 2011, 10:17:29 am »


Walker got what he wanted, so he can tack moderate now. The heavy lifting is done.

Yes BRTD, waves can break a gerrymander. I don't see a Dem one in the making for some time myself.  One requirement for it IMO given the current political environment will be a Pubbie president in office who becomes unpopular. I don't see it happening while Obama is in office. I suspect about half the voters or close to it want him leashed.

Yes, this is the legislature, but stuff flows down ballot these days almost seamlessly. State politics has been nationalized, and states are dealing with what are really national issues. JMO.

Are you conceding that Obama will be reelected?

No, but what I am saying is that if he is due to the weakness of the Pubbie candidate, his party isn't going to get more than about half the vote, and his party will run behind him if Obama runs ahead of the Pubbie by some real margin, like last time or close to it.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #578 on: August 12, 2011, 04:42:05 pm »


Walker got what he wanted, so he can tack moderate now. The heavy lifting is done.

Yes BRTD, waves can break a gerrymander. I don't see a Dem one in the making for some time myself.  One requirement for it IMO given the current political environment will be a Pubbie president in office who becomes unpopular. I don't see it happening while Obama is in office. I suspect about half the voters or close to it want him leashed.

Yes, this is the legislature, but stuff flows down ballot these days almost seamlessly. State politics has been nationalized, and states are dealing with what are really national issues. JMO.

Are you conceding that Obama will be reelected?

No, but what I am saying is that if he is due to the weakness of the Pubbie candidate, his party isn't going to get more than about half the vote, and his party will run behind him if Obama runs ahead of the Pubbie by some real margin, like last time or close to it.

Maybe 30 years ago, but now with straight ticket voting, I am willing to bet that Democrats will get the exact same percentage of the vote as Obama. 
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #579 on: August 13, 2011, 01:26:28 am »

It took more money by the Republicans to not get eroded further.

I have no idea whatsoever what BS Bob is even talking about any more (I have him on ignore but he shows up in px's quote nest). None at all.

There was the group of thugs that put a Republican state Senator into unlawful detainment until a Democratic college freed him from his captors. There was the public employee whom used her state telephone to threat a gas station owner for selling gasoline to a Republican. There was millions of dollars of damage to the Capitol building. There was the Democratic State Senator whose recall opposition campaign phoned and harassed signers of his recall petition. And, there was the infamous shirt with the symbol of the Black Panthers emblazoned upon it.
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J. J.
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« Reply #580 on: August 13, 2011, 02:12:57 am »



In a futile effort to make J.J. shut up...

Thanks for this! Obvious proof that Walker is loathed by Wisconsin.

And it looks like the Democrats had spend more than four times the amount of money they did of all legislative races to do it.

I'm interested in the other two races.

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J. J.

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The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #581 on: August 13, 2011, 12:27:22 pm »

We'll be getting PPP polls on the remaining two Democratic recalls Monday.
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« Reply #582 on: August 14, 2011, 10:26:03 pm »

Good news for Democrats

http://twitter.com/#!/markos/status/102934233256951808

Just got @ppppolls results from two Wisconsin recall elections Tuesd. Dems will win both by double-digits. Remember, PPP nailed last week

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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #583 on: August 15, 2011, 03:50:50 am »

Good news for Democrats

http://twitter.com/#!/markos/status/102934233256951808

Just got @ppppolls results from two Wisconsin recall elections Tuesd. Dems will win both by double-digits. Remember, PPP nailed last week



Another Republican triumph!
The people have spoken: leave Scott Walker alone!!!
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #584 on: August 15, 2011, 07:21:12 am »

Red Racing Horses, the conservative alternative to DKE, has their own polling operation now! They used We Ask America and got a 51-49 Holperin lead. Unfortunately for them, their sample looks too independent-heavy (and zero undecideds always seems... unlikely).
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krazen1211
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« Reply #585 on: August 15, 2011, 10:30:14 am »

Jim Holperin (D-inc): 55
Kim Simac (R): 41
Undecided: 4


Showdown, I guess.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #586 on: August 15, 2011, 10:42:20 am »

SD-22:

    Robert Wirch (D-inc): 55
    Jonathan Steitz (R): 42
    Undecided: 3
    (MoE: ±2.9%)

SD-12:

    Jim Holperin (D-inc): 55
    Kim Simac (R): 41
    Undecided: 4
    (MoE: ±2.6%)

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/08/15/1006949/-Wisconsin-recalls:-Democrats-hold-double-digit-leads-in-final-two-races
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #587 on: August 15, 2011, 05:45:47 pm »

PPP looks a little too optimistic for Holperin, so I'm going to guess he ends up winning about 54-46.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #588 on: August 15, 2011, 06:24:32 pm »

Here are Holperin figures from 2008 where he got 51% of the vote. As returns come in from each county he will likely have to match these figures.

Florence: 43%
Forest: 56%
Langlade: 46%
Lincoln: 49%
Marathon: 49%
Marinette: 48%
Menominee: 86%
Oconto: 54%
Oneida: 54%
Shawano: 56%
Vilas: 50%
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #589 on: August 16, 2011, 06:55:12 pm »

Results link; polls close in an hour.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #590 on: August 16, 2011, 08:24:22 pm »

A few precincts in; Holperin's up 56-44 in Forest County, which is exactly what he got in '08. Wirch is down by 53-47, probably rural ones.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #591 on: August 16, 2011, 08:44:18 pm »

Holperin is doing fine thus far. 16 precincts in.
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President North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #592 on: August 16, 2011, 08:45:11 pm »

What part of Racine is in Wirch's district?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #593 on: August 16, 2011, 08:50:29 pm »

What part of Racine is in Wirch's district?
Some small town in the corner called Burlington.
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« Reply #594 on: August 16, 2011, 08:52:19 pm »

What part of Racine is in Wirch's district?
Some small town in the corner called Burlington.

What is that like politically? Is that over or under performance for Wirch there?
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Nhoj
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« Reply #595 on: August 16, 2011, 08:57:03 pm »

What part of Racine is in Wirch's district?
Some small town in the corner called Burlington.

What is that like politically? Is that over or under performance for Wirch there?
Slight over I believe.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #596 on: August 16, 2011, 09:00:07 pm »

Wirch won with 67% in '08 but only got 49% in Racine. Once Kenosha proper starts to come in, he'll probably shoot up into the lead.

Holperin's doing pretty similarly to '08; he's pretty much even in all the counties that are reporting so far, except he's overperforming (so far) in Oneida and Shawano. Oneida may be because his '08 opponent was from there, whereas Simac is from the same county he is.

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krazen1211
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« Reply #597 on: August 16, 2011, 09:01:15 pm »

Oneida completely depends on where the precincts are.

Wirch should be fine unless the city of Kenosha dropped off the map.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #598 on: August 16, 2011, 09:08:39 pm »

Forest, Marathon, and Marinette are now nearly all in, and Holperin's at exactly the same percentages he got in '08.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #599 on: August 16, 2011, 09:09:49 pm »

Kenosha County results; faster than the AP. Wirch just pulled ahead there, so he's now only down by about 400 votes. Edit: now he's up by 9 in Kenosha.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2011, 09:12:03 pm by JohnnyLongtorso »Logged
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