Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 12:39:11 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 [10] 11 12 13 14 15 ... 30
Author Topic: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition  (Read 93878 times)
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,714
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #225 on: August 06, 2011, 09:38:36 PM »

Kapanke isn't even a moderate and must've kept his craziness under wraps while running for the state leg, he said something along the lines of that he supported all of Walker's agenda because it was God's will or some nonsense like that.
Logged
Kevinstat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,823


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #226 on: August 07, 2011, 10:55:46 AM »

'Kinda changing topics, but if Democrats take both chambers and defeat Walker by 2013, what are the odds of a mid-decade redistricting?
Given that Republicans somewhat threw away their trifecta here... not as high as they might be.

Has the Governor even signed those plans yet?  I know he signed the one allowing the redistiricting to be done earlier, but I've done a Google search and can't see that he's signed a single redistricting plan.  My guess is he has, or will before the Senate has a chance to meet after Tuesday's elections and recall the bill from the Governor.
Logged
TeePee4Prez
Flyers2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,480


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #227 on: August 07, 2011, 03:01:27 PM »

Kapanke isn't even a moderate and must've kept his craziness under wraps while running for the state leg, he said something along the lines of that he supported all of Walker's agenda because it was God's will or some nonsense like that.

In a way I wish Tom Corbett acted like a Scott Walker.  There are a lot of PA legislators than are pretty conservative, but got in on focusing on local issues yet their districts are decidedly Democratic.  Quite a lot of fruit would be low hanging for us if we had a Walker/Kasich.  Walker definitely has a silver lining for the Democratic party.  PA Dems have not been able to use the Macellus Shale issue as well as the OH and WI Dems have been able to use Kasich and Walker. 
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #228 on: August 07, 2011, 04:10:18 PM »

Article about the Olsen/Clark race. Olsen has never had to run a general election campaign, he's been unopposed every single time he's been up for election in the past 16 years. That might partially account for why he's doing so poorly.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #229 on: August 07, 2011, 04:20:27 PM »

Doesn't the downplaying of the collective bargaining issue hurt in some ways? Every state has made deep cuts in education for instance, so I would think running against the "gutting of education" would not produce as much of a response considering the acknowledge need for states to control their budgets. It just wouldn't seem that you have the kind of effect were you to run against what you have termed a partisan power grab, which would in my opinion have an effect on swing voters even if they don't particularly care much about unions. We'll get to see whether this was a wise strategy, fairly shortly, I guess.
Logged
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,254
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #230 on: August 07, 2011, 07:32:07 PM »

Forgive me for being so uninformed about this (I've pretty much attempted to ignore political news for the last several weeks....and it was quite nice), but what are realistic odds that Walker could lose the Senate majority?
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #231 on: August 07, 2011, 07:51:20 PM »

I posted this one page ago:

Their chances are pretty decent, actually. Dan Kapanke is toast, while Luther Olson and Randy Hopper are tossups that may be leaning slightly to the Democrats. The other three are probably going to hold on.

On the defense side, Wirch isn't going to have any trouble, and Holperin lucked out and got a nutter opponent, so he's probably favored.

We should have some final polls from DK/PPP either tonight or tomorrow.
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #232 on: August 07, 2011, 08:01:30 PM »

Doesn't the downplaying of the collective bargaining issue hurt in some ways? Every state has made deep cuts in education for instance, so I would think running against the "gutting of education" would not produce as much of a response considering the acknowledge need for states to control their budgets. It just wouldn't seem that you have the kind of effect were you to run against what you have termed a partisan power grab, which would in my opinion have an effect on swing voters even if they don't particularly care much about unions. We'll get to see whether this was a wise strategy, fairly shortly, I guess.

Firing your kid's band teacher makes people a lot more angry than taking away collective bargaining from people you may or may not know.
Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #233 on: August 07, 2011, 09:03:30 PM »

Doesn't the downplaying of the collective bargaining issue hurt in some ways? Every state has made deep cuts in education for instance, so I would think running against the "gutting of education" would not produce as much of a response considering the acknowledge need for states to control their budgets. It just wouldn't seem that you have the kind of effect were you to run against what you have termed a partisan power grab, which would in my opinion have an effect on swing voters even if they don't particularly care much about unions. We'll get to see whether this was a wise strategy, fairly shortly, I guess.

Firing your kid's band teacher makes people a lot more angry than taking away collective bargaining from people you may or may not know.

Not to mention the average person at this point has never been a member of a union or even a relative of someone in a union so they have no real grasp of what collective bargaining is and its importance.
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #234 on: August 08, 2011, 10:25:58 AM »

Great Polls.


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/08/08/1004363/-Wisconsin-recall-elections:-Too-close-to%C2%A0call?via=blog_542760#comments

SD-32:

Jennifer Shilling (D): 54 (56)
Dan Kapanke (R-inc): 43 (42)
Undecided: 3 (3)
(MoE: ±3.4%)
SD-18:

Jessica King (D): 48 (50)
Randy Hopper (R-inc): 49 (47)
Undecided: 3 (3)
(MoE: ±2.7%)
SD-10:

Shelly Moore (D): 42 (45)
Sheila Harsdorf (R-inc): 54 (50)
Undecided: 4 (5)
(MoE: ±2.7%)
SD-14:

Fred Clark (D): 47 (49)
Luther Olsen (R-inc): 50 (47)
Undecided: 3 (4)
(MoE: ±2.8%)
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #235 on: August 08, 2011, 10:39:34 AM »

So Dems need to sweep the Hooper-Olsen-Harsdorf races to take control, right (I'm assuming Kapanke is finished and the other Republicans are safe)?
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #236 on: August 08, 2011, 10:42:09 AM »

So Dems need to sweep the Hooper-Olsen-Harsdorf races to take control, right (I'm assuming Kapanke is finished and the other Republicans are safe)?
Nope, two plus Kapanke.
Nobody ever talks about Cowles, so I assume he's as safe as the two Democrats are. Darling might be safe, might not, much like Harsdorf.
Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #237 on: August 08, 2011, 12:00:28 PM »
« Edited: August 08, 2011, 12:29:36 PM by Tommy Carcetti »

Race ratings for each Senator:

Dan Kapanke - Likely D
Randy Hopper - Tilt D
Luther Olson - Tossup
Alberta Darling - Lean R
Rob Cowles - Lean R/Likely R
Shelia Harsdorf - Lean R/Likely R

There are no guaranteed wins here outside of Schilling beating Kapanke.
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #238 on: August 08, 2011, 01:00:20 PM »

It'll all come down to the ground game. Drama!
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #239 on: August 08, 2011, 05:50:03 PM »

It would be pretty embarrassing if they only beat Kapanke.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #240 on: August 08, 2011, 06:28:03 PM »

I suppose this will keep us awake on the East Coast till 2 or 3 in the morning, correct? Tongue
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #241 on: August 08, 2011, 07:16:21 PM »

Here's the AP results link for tomorrow.
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #242 on: August 08, 2011, 07:28:55 PM »

I suppose this will keep us awake on the East Coast till 2 or 3 in the morning, correct? Tongue

Nah, all the races should be over by 11 PM Eastern. Except for the 8th, since Waukesha County is in the district. The incompetent county clerk there will probably keep everyone waiting until after midnight.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #243 on: August 08, 2011, 07:56:19 PM »

TEST RESULTS ONLY - NOT FOR BROADCAST OR PUBLICATION 
State Senate - District 32 - General
119 of 119 Precincts Reporting - 100%
 Name Party Votes Vote %
 Kapanke, Dan (i) GOP 35,745 55%
 Shilling, Jennifer Dem 29,247 45%
 
Kapanke wishes this was real most likely. Grin

The irony is that the best possible outcome for him, it would seem, is probably 55-45, for Shilling. 
Logged
rbt48
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,060


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #244 on: August 08, 2011, 10:46:09 PM »

The antics on Wall Street today seems likely to help the GOP hold onto the Wisconsin Senate.  I think enough folks who blame Obama for the mess and are convinced we are overspending will be motivated to get out and vote.  Not that the Wisconsin State Senate has any remote say in our national fiscal policy, but the timing couldn't have been worse for Badger Democrats.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,934
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #245 on: August 08, 2011, 11:07:53 PM »

I don't think national issues are going to effect these races at all. It's been heavily localized now and with most people having decided one way or another, it's quite late for any last minute changes.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #246 on: August 09, 2011, 01:31:36 AM »

As for predictions...

I'm going to say that all of the Republicans except Kapanke hold on. While I think Kapanke is finished, the result will be closer than people are expecting. I'll say 55% to 45% in Shilling's favor.
Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #247 on: August 09, 2011, 01:49:07 AM »

Time for some predictions:

Jennifer Schilling 57%
Dan Kapanke 43%

Jessica King 52%
Randy Hopper 48%

Fred Clark 50.1%
Luther Olson 49.9%

Alberta Darling 51%
Sandy Pasch 49%

Shelia Harsdorf 54%
Shelly Moore 46%

Robert Cowles 55%
Some Dude (has this race been covered at all?) 45%
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #248 on: August 09, 2011, 06:50:24 AM »

Can anybody please post the 2008 Obama vs. McCain results in these districts as well as the 2004 and 2008 and 2010 results of these elections ?

Thx.
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #249 on: August 09, 2011, 07:03:16 AM »

My guess is the same as I predicted months ago: Kapanke and Hopper lose.

Can anybody please post the 2008 Obama vs. McCain results in these districts as well as the 2004 and 2008 and 2010 results of these elections ?

Thx.

The Bush/Kerry, Obama/McCain, and Prosser/Kloppenberg numbers are in the OP. In 2008, Kapanke, Darling, and Hopper all barely won with about 50-51% of the vote, Harsdorf won about 57-43, and the other two were unopposed.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 [10] 11 12 13 14 15 ... 30  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.058 seconds with 13 queries.