Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

[Gass3268]

There are really only two Senate races that matter in the fall and that is 12th and the 18th. The 12th is the Northwoods area in far Northeastern Wisconsin that is currently represented by Jim Holperin. Senator Holperin is retiring so this will be an open seat. This district went to Obama 52.2% to 46.2% but went to the GOP in 2010 58.8% to 41.2%. Unless the Democrats are able to recruit a local superstar or the Republicans nominate a criminal, this seat is going to flip. The 18th was one of the 2 seats that were successfully recalled last year, due in large part to Senator Hopper's affair. This district is a combination of the Oshkosh and Fon du Lac areas. It went for Obama 51.2% to 47.3 in 2008 before reverting back to the Republicans 58.7% to 41.3% in 2010. My guess is this seat will flip back in November.

The other two wild card seats would be the 30th and 32nd. The 30th is represented by Dave Hansen who represents the city of Green Bay up to Marinette on the border with Michigan. His district went Republican in 2010 and probably in the Walker recall, but he was able to battle off his own recall and he seems to be popular in his district. The 32nd was the other successful recall district won by Jennifer Shilling. This is a Western Mississippi River district composing of La Crosse County, Crawford Count, most of Vernon County and part of Monroe County. Even though this district was a recall victory, it is an area that based off voting history should be controlled by the Democrats and I don't see any change in November.

So democrats need to pick up another seat than to replace the retiring Senator?

There really isn't any other competitive seats out there. The only thing the Democrats can do is try to defend the 12th and 18th which will be really hard to do, barring 2012 becoming a Democratic wave year, which is obviously doubtful.

[AmericanNation]

There are really only two Senate races that matter in the fall and that is 12th and the 18th. The 12th is the Northwoods area in far Northeastern Wisconsin that is currently represented by Jim Holperin. Senator Holperin is retiring so this will be an open seat. This district went to Obama 52.2% to 46.2% but went to the GOP in 2010 58.8% to 41.2%. Unless the Democrats are able to recruit a local superstar or the Republicans nominate a criminal, this seat is going to flip. The 18th was one of the 2 seats that were successfully recalled last year, due in large part to Senator Hopper's affair. This district is a combination of the Oshkosh and Fon du Lac areas. It went for Obama 51.2% to 47.3 in 2008 before reverting back to the Republicans 58.7% to 41.3% in 2010. My guess is this seat will flip back in November.

The other two wild card seats would be the 30th and 32nd. The 30th is represented by Dave Hansen who represents the city of Green Bay up to Marinette on the border with Michigan. His district went Republican in 2010 and probably in the Walker recall, but he was able to battle off his own recall and he seems to be popular in his district. The 32nd was the other successful recall district won by Jennifer Shilling. This is a Western Mississippi River district composing of La Crosse County, Crawford Count, most of Vernon County and part of Monroe County. Even though this district was a recall victory, it is an area that based off voting history should be controlled by the Democrats and I don't see any change in November.

So democrats need to pick up another seat than to replace the retiring Senator?

There really isn't any other competitive seats out there. The only thing the Democrats can do is try to defend the 12th and 18th which will be really hard to do, barring 2012 becoming a Democratic wave year, which is obviously doubtful.

So, republicans will
1) fill the vacant Pam Galloway seat
2) pick up the seat Holperin is vacating.
AND pick up 1 to 2 others?
Fond du Lac and La Crosse

GOP+ 3to4 before they're back in session. 

[Gass3268]

There are really only two Senate races that matter in the fall and that is 12th and the 18th. The 12th is the Northwoods area in far Northeastern Wisconsin that is currently represented by Jim Holperin. Senator Holperin is retiring so this will be an open seat. This district went to Obama 52.2% to 46.2% but went to the GOP in 2010 58.8% to 41.2%. Unless the Democrats are able to recruit a local superstar or the Republicans nominate a criminal, this seat is going to flip. The 18th was one of the 2 seats that were successfully recalled last year, due in large part to Senator Hopper's affair. This district is a combination of the Oshkosh and Fon du Lac areas. It went for Obama 51.2% to 47.3 in 2008 before reverting back to the Republicans 58.7% to 41.3% in 2010. My guess is this seat will flip back in November.

The other two wild card seats would be the 30th and 32nd. The 30th is represented by Dave Hansen who represents the city of Green Bay up to Marinette on the border with Michigan. His district went Republican in 2010 and probably in the Walker recall, but he was able to battle off his own recall and he seems to be popular in his district. The 32nd was the other successful recall district won by Jennifer Shilling. This is a Western Mississippi River district composing of La Crosse County, Crawford Count, most of Vernon County and part of Monroe County. Even though this district was a recall victory, it is an area that based off voting history should be controlled by the Democrats and I don't see any change in November.

So democrats need to pick up another seat than to replace the retiring Senator?

There really isn't any other competitive seats out there. The only thing the Democrats can do is try to defend the 12th and 18th which will be really hard to do, barring 2012 becoming a Democratic wave year, which is obviously doubtful.

So, republicans will
1) fill the vacant Pam Galloway seat
2) pick up the seat Holperin is vacating.
AND pick up 1 to 2 others?
Fond du Lac and La Crosse

GOP+ 3to4 before they're back in session. 

1) They just did that in the recall election by electing Jerry Petrowski to the 29th/Wausau seat. My guess is that he'll win by a slightly smaller margin in November.

2) Yup, the 12th is going to be really hard to hold without Senator Holperin.

3) Fond du Lac/Oshkosh seat is probably going to flip back. Jessica King almost did win in 2008, so she seems to be somewhat popular for the district, but at R+7, the 18th will more than likely flip back.

4) I doubt the 32nd/La Cross district will flip back. This is a D+2 district with 2/3rds of the Assembly seats in the district controlled by Dems.

So by January of 2013 the State Senate will probably be 18-15 in favor of the GOP.

[AmericanNation]

Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 

[TJ in Oregon]

Don't forget about the Racine seat the Democrats just took this week. Under the new map it looses the city Racine to SD-22 and picks up the rural parts of SD-22. That should be a very safe Republican pick-up.

[AmericanNation]

Don't forget about the Racine seat the Democrats just took this week. Under the new map it looses the city Racine to SD-22 and picks up the rural parts of SD-22. That should be a very safe Republican pick-up.

I think it's up in 2014.

[Gass3268]

Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November. 

[Mr.Phips]

Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November. 

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude. 

[AmericanNation]

Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November. 

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude. 

Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.     

[Mr.Phips]

Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November. 

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude. 

Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.     

Why would a strongly Dem district turn out a decent Democratic like Jenn Shilling for Kapanke, who is a very poor fit for the district?

[krazen1211]

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/05/wisconsin-dems-dispute-the-marquette-poll.php

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/09/wisconsin-recall-polls-tom-barrett-partisan-polls_n_1581919.html

Wisconsin Democrats are firing back at the latest Marquette University Law School poll of the state recall election, which put Republican Gov. Scott Walker ahead of Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett by a 7-point margin — in an effort to tamp down negative public perception as they head into the election’s final week.




Pretty funny stuff.

[AmericanNation]

Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November. 

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude. 

Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.     

Why would a strongly Dem district turn out a decent Democratic like Jenn Shilling for Kapanke, who is a very poor fit for the district?

It isn't a "strongly Dem district."  It is a 'volatile' (will flip occasionally) lean dem district that voted for Scott Walker a week ago.  I don't know Shilling, but off the top of my head she voted against the mining bill at least twice, which is a pretty good indicator that she is a hyper partisan hack or ignorant.  Kapanke is often described as "being his district / he IS his district" so I don't know how you get "very poor fit."  Doesn't he own several businesses and the local baseball team?             

[Mr.Phips]

Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close.  
Is Kapanke running again?  
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him.  

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November.  

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude.  

Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.    

Why would a strongly Dem district turn out a decent Democratic like Jenn Shilling for Kapanke, who is a very poor fit for the district?

It isn't a "strongly Dem district."  It is a 'volatile' (will flip occasionally) lean dem district that voted for Scott Walker a week ago.  I don't know Shilling, but off the top of my head she voted against the mining bill at least twice, which is a pretty good indicator that she is a hyper partisan hack or ignorant.  Kapanke is often described as "being his district / he IS his district" so I don't know how you get "very poor fit."  Doesn't he own several businesses and the local baseball team?              

It is a district that Obama got 61% in and even Kerry got 53% in.  Walker won it by one point when he was winning statewide by seven points.  That's like saying WA-05 is a swing district because it voted for Maria Cantwell.  

The district is Democratic enough that it voted by two points for Russ Feingold when he was losing statewide by five points. 

[AmericanNation]

Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close.  
Is Kapanke running again?  
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him.  

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November.  

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude.  

Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.    

Why would a strongly Dem district turn out a decent Democratic like Jenn Shilling for Kapanke, who is a very poor fit for the district?

It isn't a "strongly Dem district."  It is a 'volatile' (will flip occasionally) lean dem district that voted for Scott Walker a week ago.  I don't know Shilling, but off the top of my head she voted against the mining bill at least twice, which is a pretty good indicator that she is a hyper partisan hack or ignorant.  Kapanke is often described as "being his district / he IS his district" so I don't know how you get "very poor fit."  Doesn't he own several businesses and the local baseball team?              

It is a district that Obama got 61% in and even Kerry got 53% in.  Walker won it by one point when he was winning statewide by seven points.  That's like saying WA-05 is a swing district because it voted for Maria Cantwell.  

The district is Democratic enough that it voted by two points for Russ Feingold when he was losing statewide by five points. 

So:
Kerry by 6% in 2004
Feingold by 2% in 2010
Walker by 1% in 2012
Obviously a completely safe dem seat. in November. 

[Niemeyerite]

Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November. 

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude. 

Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.     

Why would a strongly Dem district turn out a decent Democratic like Jenn Shilling for Kapanke, who is a very poor fit for the district?

It isn't a "strongly Dem district."  It is a 'volatile' (will flip occasionally) lean dem district that voted for Scott Walker a week ago.  I don't know Shilling, but off the top of my head she voted against the mining bill at least twice, which is a pretty good indicator that she is a hyper partisan hack or ignorant.  Kapanke is often described as "being his district / he IS his district" so I don't know how you get "very poor fit."  Doesn't he own several businesses and the local baseball team?             

It is a district that Obama got 61% in and even Kerry got 53% in.  Walker won it by one point when he was winning statewide by seven points.  That's like saying WA-05 is a swing district because it voted for Maria Cantwell. 

The district is Democratic enough that it voted by two points for Russ Feingold when he was losing statewide by five points. 

So:
Kerry by 6% in 2004
Feingold by 2% in 2010
Walker by 1% in 2012
Obviously a completely safe dem seat. in November. 

You forgot something bewteen 2004 and 2010. Obama by 22. And Walker won it by 1% in 2010, not sure about 2012.

[BigSkyBob]

Evidence of vote fraud uncovered:

http://www.maciverinstitute.com/2012/06/curious-election-documents-found-in-dumpster-in-racine-sheriffs-department-investigating/

With signed, precertified forms there would be no impediment to bussing in people from out of state to vote in the recall.

[AmericanNation]

Evidence of vote fraud uncovered:

http://www.maciverinstitute.com/2012/06/curious-election-documents-found-in-dumpster-in-racine-sheriffs-department-investigating/

With signed, precertified forms there would be no impediment to bussing in people from out of state to vote in the recall.

This is probably a textbook case of vote fraud.  What can you do about it?  Try to get convictions on a few people, write a report proving the massive vote fraud, and than in the end democrats will claim nothing ever happened. 

[BigSkyBob]

Evidence of vote fraud uncovered:

http://www.maciverinstitute.com/2012/06/curious-election-documents-found-in-dumpster-in-racine-sheriffs-department-investigating/

With signed, precertified forms there would be no impediment to bussing in people from out of state to vote in the recall.

This is probably a textbook case of vote fraud.  What can you do about it?  Try to get convictions on a few people, write a report proving the massive vote fraud, and than in the end democrats will claim nothing ever happened. 

First, you sue to overturn the State Senate election on the basis of fraud. You find out who signed the blank registration forms, and, authenticate that it is fact his signature.  Second, you challenge every registration and/or ballot signed by this person as a fraudulently cast ballot by an unregistered voter. Then, you subpoena the names of addresses of the folks whom registered late in a form certified by the signer.  You knock on their doors to see if they in fact live where they registered. To buy time, you pony up the funds for a recount.

Second, then read the Wisconsin statutes very carefully to see if his signing constituted a crime. If it is, you demand that he be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Of course, you insist that he be fired. Ideally, you try to have his pension forfeited. A significant victory will be won if the next time someone asks for a bureaucrat to sign blank registration forms that bureaucrat asks himself, "Do I really what to subject myself to the onslaught that that other fellow had to endure?"

If you can document a single instance of a fraudulent ballot, you take your case to the people of Wisconsin by making the 2012 Senate elections a referendum in part on voter fraud by proposing to tightening the loopholes that allow such fraud. The day Lehman is eligible for recall, you file the signatures for his recall.

[Mr.Phips]

Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close.  
Is Kapanke running again?  
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him.  

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November.  

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude.  

Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.    

Why would a strongly Dem district turn out a decent Democratic like Jenn Shilling for Kapanke, who is a very poor fit for the district?

It isn't a "strongly Dem district."  It is a 'volatile' (will flip occasionally) lean dem district that voted for Scott Walker a week ago.  I don't know Shilling, but off the top of my head she voted against the mining bill at least twice, which is a pretty good indicator that she is a hyper partisan hack or ignorant.  Kapanke is often described as "being his district / he IS his district" so I don't know how you get "very poor fit."  Doesn't he own several businesses and the local baseball team?              

It is a district that Obama got 61% in and even Kerry got 53% in.  Walker won it by one point when he was winning statewide by seven points.  That's like saying WA-05 is a swing district because it voted for Maria Cantwell.  

The district is Democratic enough that it voted by two points for Russ Feingold when he was losing statewide by five points.  

So:
Kerry by 6% in 2004
Feingold by 2% in 2010
Walker by 1% in 2012
Obviously a completely safe dem seat. in November.  

You forgot something bewteen 2004 and 2010. Obama by 22. And Walker won it by 1% in 2010, not sure about 2012.

Not to mention that Doyle won it by 17 in 2006 in the fairly close(53%-45%) governors race that year.  

Feingold won it by 18 in 2004 when he was winning by 11 statewide.

This is at least a D+5 district and if you include the 2008 and 2004 Presidential results, its D+7.  There are currently no Republicans representing districts this blue at the House level, especially as far to the right as Kapanke.  This would be like Nancy Pelosi representing a R+7 district like IN-09. 

[AmericanNation]

1)Originally we were talking about the State Senate district, not the US House district.
2)Both districts have been redrawn, which might have some importance.

[BigSkyBob]

http://www.maciverinstitute.com/2012/06/thousands-of-racine-voters-may-have-been-able-to-cast-a-recall-ballot-by-mistake/

Looks like this election is going to court!