Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

[ag]

Actually, it won't be just one, but three Dems: Holperin, Hansen and Wirch:

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/120293779.html

So, we have 4 Republicans and 3 Democrats already w/ enough signatures. Assuming the Dems will also get enough signatures on Darling (seems to be a reasonable assumption at this point, given the nature of her district and given that Dems still have till May 5th to gather signatures), it seems that 8 state senators out of 16 eligible for recall will actually have to fight an early election (5 Reps, 3 Dems). Does it look like that will be it?

[ag]

Hmm?  I've always learned "country" is one with actual borders.

Yes, absolutely. Which is why I excempted that other def. of "nation". They don't need to currently be primary borders.

Of course, here in Germany we call our states "countries", so...

What exactly is the difference between Land and Staat?

Country and state, respectively

[ag]

Never was there a more meaningless election. The Pubbies got their wish list enacted into law, and after their gerrymander, will get back control of the Senate in short order (Jan 2013) even if they lose 3 seats tonight.

There, actually, could be an interesting twist. It is quite probable, especially if the Dems are reasonably successful today, that there is going to be a next batch of recalls next year. It is not impossible that such recalls would happen around the regula election date. And here could be a funny thing: I guess, the recalls would have to still run on the old lines, so that some voters would get a chance to vote both in the new district and in the old district at the same time!

[ag]

Now, we just have to wait )

[ag]

And 1 precinct in in the 14th

Clark 56%
Olsen 44%

But this is nothing yet.

[ag]

Results here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/WI_Page_0809.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[ag]

We are likely to see increased polarization. The other important thing is relative turnout.

[ag]

6 more precincts in in the 14th, and it is Olsen 55%

[ag]

Kapanke 52 48 @ 12%

!

If Kapanke's ahead, it looks like the night will be very good to the GOP incumbents.

Kapanke is behind by about a dosen votes: but none of LaCrosse has reported yet.

He's not anymore, but it's 50-50 when rounded to the nearest percent.

[ag]

Kapanke 52 48 @ 12%

!

If Kapanke's ahead, it looks like the night will be very good to the GOP incumbents.

He's not anymore, but it's 50-50 when rounded to the nearest percent.

I just posted that, but he'd down by 13 votes with 20% plus reporting.  Do any of the D seats look vulnerable.

Dem seats are next week

[ag]

8th and 18th have simply not reported enough to say anything (6 and 8 precincts respectively from a single county each).

[ag]

Olsen's looking good: 55% w/ a lot reporting (over 1000 votes margin).

[ag]

Olsen's solidifying: 55% w/ 57/126 precincts reporting. But another precinct leaves Hopper w/ only 52%

[ag]

Hopper doesn't look good. McCain got  53% in the one Dodge County precinct in his district, but he only managed 44%. Olsen, though, seems to be making it. 

[ag]

Some reporting from the 8th, including first 5 precincts from Milwaukee. Darling down to 55%.

[ag]

3 more precincts from the 8th and Darling's down to 43%: this looks like a battle of relative turnouts.

[ag]

Unless there's something surprising in the two counties that haven't reported yet, I think it's about time to call Olsen.

Yep, looks like that.

[ag]

Looks like Kapanke might be the only victim - Shilling's up to 54% and should end up higher.

[ag]

What's the hell going on the 8th and the 18th? Where are the results?

[ag]

Actually, the people, who ostensibly can't count, are reporting faster then the rest of the 8th.

A few more precincts have just reported from Winnebago: King's actually ahead by 96 votes now. On the Fond du Lac side they only have the canvass results for the 14th (Olsen's ahead), but nothing for the 18th.

[ag]

Kings now leads by 96 votes. Dems ahead in 3 races currently.

Chances are, Dems will only take out Kapanke. But for the moment it looks nice in their column.

[ag]

Kings now leads by 96 votes. Dems ahead in 3 races currently.

Chances are, Dems will only take out Kapanke. But for the moment it looks nice in their column.

You are probably right. Little has been counted in 8 and 18, plus Waukesha hasn't come in much yet, so that's good for Darling.

Well, according to AP there are only 10 precincts left in Waukeesha and 43 precincts in Milwaukee. Though, of course, AP precinct reporting might be off.

[ag]

9 more precincts have reported from Milwaukee and Darling's, actually, up to 44% (so far down about 2250 votes).

[ag]

Hopper is now behind by just over 600 votes (48% to 52%). But still now results from Fond du Lac - and if we are to believe thos previously reported, he still should make it.

[ag]

So, mostly Milwaukee has been reporting from the 8th and Darling's down over 2500 votes. It remains to report from 26 precincts in Milwaukee and 23 precincts in the suburbs. The problem, of course, we have no clue how many votes are there in those precincts.