Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

[Niemeyerite]

for the moment, it's Hansen 69% VanderLeest 31%. LoL

[Niemeyerite]

Very little of these races seem to actually be about the collective bargaining bill. At least that's the impression I'm getting from the TV ads.

These must be pretty epic match ups if you're seeing the Wisconsin ads in Washington!

You know, there is a wonderful new thing called the Internets. You should try it sometimes. It's much more practical than waiting for that damn pigeon.

Jokes - I guess they're difficult to appreciate when your country is burning down.

I didn't know that you're from Catalunya.

Catalunya isn't a country. and it isn't burning down.

[Niemeyerite]

Catalunya could be called a Nation, but not a country.

[Niemeyerite]

Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November. 

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude. 

Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.     

Why would a strongly Dem district turn out a decent Democratic like Jenn Shilling for Kapanke, who is a very poor fit for the district?

It isn't a "strongly Dem district."  It is a 'volatile' (will flip occasionally) lean dem district that voted for Scott Walker a week ago.  I don't know Shilling, but off the top of my head she voted against the mining bill at least twice, which is a pretty good indicator that she is a hyper partisan hack or ignorant.  Kapanke is often described as "being his district / he IS his district" so I don't know how you get "very poor fit."  Doesn't he own several businesses and the local baseball team?             

It is a district that Obama got 61% in and even Kerry got 53% in.  Walker won it by one point when he was winning statewide by seven points.  That's like saying WA-05 is a swing district because it voted for Maria Cantwell. 

The district is Democratic enough that it voted by two points for Russ Feingold when he was losing statewide by five points. 

So:
Kerry by 6% in 2004
Feingold by 2% in 2010
Walker by 1% in 2012
Obviously a completely safe dem seat. in November. 

You forgot something bewteen 2004 and 2010. Obama by 22. And Walker won it by 1% in 2010, not sure about 2012.