Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

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Prosser I believe lost that district, so losing it is no surprise. Sucks, but if Prosser results are indicative most GOPers will be fine.

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Great Polls.


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/08/08/1004363/-Wisconsin-recall-elections:-Too-close-to%C2%A0call?via=blog_542760#comments

SD-32:

Jennifer Shilling (D): 54 (56)
Dan Kapanke (R-inc): 43 (42)
Undecided: 3 (3)
(MoE: ±3.4%)
SD-18:

Jessica King (D): 48 (50)
Randy Hopper (R-inc): 49 (47)
Undecided: 3 (3)
(MoE: ±2.7%)
SD-10:

Shelly Moore (D): 42 (45)
Sheila Harsdorf (R-inc): 54 (50)
Undecided: 4 (5)
(MoE: ±2.7%)
SD-14:

Fred Clark (D): 47 (49)
Luther Olsen (R-inc): 50 (47)
Undecided: 3 (4)
(MoE: ±2.8%)

[krazen1211]

This is going to be a great example of Nixon's silent majority.

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http://twitter.com/#!/djambrek/status/101040179883675649

Disheartened to see voter turnout in student wards at Oshkosh and Milwaukee are low, but not surprised



Hehehe

[krazen1211]

'Kinda changing topics, but if Democrats take both chambers and defeat Walker by 2013, what are the odds of a mid-decade redistricting?

You would have to redefine the word 'first'.


http://nxt.legis.state.wi.us/nxt/gateway.dll?f=templates&fn=default.htm&d=wiscon&jd=top

"At its first session after each enumeration made by the authority of the United States, the legislature shall apportion and district anew the members of the senate and assembly, according to the number of inhabitants."

[krazen1211]

Joe Petrie-Patch: Sandy Pasch gets 3,687 in Whitefish Bay, compared to 3,518 for Darling. Barrett beat Walker there 3,929 to 3,714



Hehehehe.

[krazen1211]

Time to get ready to recall Jim Holperin!

[krazen1211]

Time to get ready to recall Jim Holperin!

Thank God the Republicans drew a terrible candidate there.

What is the Walker % there?

Edit: 57% it seems.

[krazen1211]

Dunno. How would you rate Simac as a candidate vs. Walker? More skilled and electable, about equal, or not as strong? How about Holperin vs. the Dem who ran?

Certainly less, but so was Randy Hopper.

In the last year, the bulk of candidates that really tick off the left in districts like this have lost. However, some have won.

Per the OP this district is more Republican than Hopper's district and about equal to Olsen's district.

We shall see!

[krazen1211]

I must give credit to Walker. Those photo ID laws and other voting restraining laws made a difference. Instead of stopping his agenda it will only be slowed down by a bunch. He is still being recalled next year though. I hope his challenger is Feingold.

Also that State Senator that voted against Walker's union busting bill is the reason Fitzgerald remains the majority leader there. Him also being recalled would had handed the Dems the majority.

The photo ID laws that are not in effect yet, and the senator that is not eligible for a recall?

Amusing!

[krazen1211]

I assume the GOP gerrymander will shut the Dems out for a decade in the Wisconsin legislature. The state is so polarized that gerrymandering has a lot of traction.  I know some of Darling's "problem" towns are being dumped into a Dem sink district.

That is not so much a function of gerrymandering as it is a function of the extreme underpopulation of the 4 Democratic held Milwaukee districts.

[krazen1211]

Jim Holperin (D-inc): 55
Kim Simac (R): 41
Undecided: 4


Showdown, I guess.

[krazen1211]

Here are Holperin figures from 2008 where he got 51% of the vote. As returns come in from each county he will likely have to match these figures.

Florence: 43%
Forest: 56%
Langlade: 46%
Lincoln: 49%
Marathon: 49%
Marinette: 48%
Menominee: 86%
Oconto: 54%
Oneida: 54%
Shawano: 56%
Vilas: 50%

[krazen1211]

Holperin is doing fine thus far. 16 precincts in.

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What part of Racine is in Wirch's district?

Some small town in the corner called Burlington.

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Oneida completely depends on where the precincts are.

Wirch should be fine unless the city of Kenosha dropped off the map.

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It looks about the same as 2008, correct?  One or two points up for the Democrats?

About that. Some GOP counties outstanding, but it likely won't be enough.

[krazen1211]

Red Racing Horses, the conservative alternative to DKE, has their own polling operation now! They used We Ask America and got a 51-49 Holperin lead. Unfortunately for them, their sample looks too independent-heavy (and zero undecideds always seems... unlikely).

WAA did an ok job. PPP put up a clunker.

[krazen1211]

Didnt PPP put out a 55-43 Holperin lead? That's mighty close to 54-46

55-41. Florence is the strongest GOP county in the district and has yet to report.

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It also has only 4k people.

True enough. I guess an 8 point win is equidistant from both polls if it ends that way. Lincoln is allegedly hand-counting so it'll be a while.

[krazen1211]

Red Racing Horses, the conservative alternative to DKE, has their own polling operation now! They used We Ask America and got a 51-49 Holperin lead. Unfortunately for them, their sample looks too independent-heavy (and zero undecideds always seems... unlikely).

WAA did an ok job. PPP put up a clunker.

Spoke too soon. Final result 55-45.

[krazen1211]

Clean and easy GOP sweep. Too bad for Randy Hopper's mistress.


The union buster Scott Walker will be vindicated by the populace.

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If that's the case then the populace has collectively lost its mind, but we've established that that's the case in this country long since so I'll just ask: Why exactly do you expect Van Wanggaard's race to be 'easy'?

That district of course is a heavily GOP district in redistricting, but even the current district is only as Democratic as others that were already won by the GOP in prior recalls. Scott Walker is handily leading in that district 51-44.

The Wisconsin Senate is out of session in any case. The GOP has 2 very winnable districts ahead especially with Holperin retiring.

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PPP/DK polling:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If anyone wants to read a lot of very funny things, check out those comments! Lol!

Death of democracy!

[krazen1211]

The GOP has a new improved candidate for the 18th district which was lost due to Randy Hopper's mistress.

http://rickgudexforsenate.com/

In addition of course in the unlikely even that the GOP loses the 21st the Democrat can be promptly recalled in a year's time.