State Changes in 2004

[WMS]

I've been wondering about something that y'all brought up in this topic...

How do you think New Mexico will go this year, and just as importantly, why? I of course have my own opinions but will not state them here since I don't want to bias any of the answers. I'm very curious what the opinion of others is about odd old New Mexico...

[WMS]

Hooked.

Pretty good description except for the low taxes part. 50+ years of Democratic control does not = low taxes.
And we're so dependent on government for employment that if the feds decided to pull stakes and leave the population would implode like something out of the 1930's. Still, not all Hispanics are alike...witness the NM polling results on gay marriage/civil union/const. amend. in another topic. This state may be borderline Democratic in voting, but it definitely leans in a socially conservative direction. So it certainly is possible for Bush to win...I'm just not sure the NM Reps are organized enough to take advantage of it...

[WMS]

I've enjoyed the comments about His Majesty Bill Richardson...yep, I'm not one of his biggest fans. But he'll still help Kerry.

Anyway, I have some more poll data. Not a head-to-head matchup, sadly. It's long, but who else is doing New Mexico poll data?

Research & Polling, Inc. poll
In the Tuesday, March 23 Albuquerque Journal
"Sample of 330 registered New Mexico voters interviewed by telephone March 10-15." 'MoE: + or - 5%'

"Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of President George W. Bush?" 43% FAVORABLE, 38% UNFAVORABLE, 15% MIXED FEELINGS/NEUTRAL, 4% DON'T KNOW/WON'T SAY

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of U.S. Senator John Kerry?" 44% FAVORABLE, 24% UNFAVORABLE, 18% MIXED FEELINGS/NEUTRAL, 14% DON'T KNOW/WON'T SAY
-R&P's head said that the unfavorable will probably rise once Bush's attacks get underway

-Hispanics: Kerry 55% FAVORABLE; Bush 44% FAVORABLE but also 43% FAVORABLE among Anglo voters, so support about equal by race

-Bush favored by 84% of Reps; Kerry favored by 61% of Dems; BOTH received 22% FAVORABLE ratings from members of the opposite party

-Independents: 37% FAVORABLE about Kerry; 29% FAVORABLE about Bush

-EQUAL ratings by men and women

-Albuquerque area (c. 1/3 of voters): 44% FAVORABLE about Kerry; 41% FAVORABLE about Bush.
-East and Northwest [not the reservations, but the oil patch]: 61% FAVORABLE to Bush and 56% FAVORABLE to Bush respectively
-North-Central: 70% FAVORABLE to Kerry

-74% of Baptists and 61% of other Protestants FAVORABLE to Bush; 64% of "other" religious preference and 54% of Catholics FAVORABLE to Kerry

Make of that what you will...

And, another poll, in the Wednesday, March 24 Albuquerque Journal, by Research & Polling (and yes, R&P and the Journal DO have an agreement)
"Sample of 330 registered New Mexico voters interviewed by telephone March 10-15." 'MoE: + or - 5%'

"Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Governor Bill Richardson?" 61% FAVORABLE, 20% UNFAVORABLE, 12% MIXED FEELINGS/NEUTRAL, 7% DON'T KNOW/WON'T SAY
-Reps: 43% FAVORABLE to 38% UNFAVORABLE
-Dems: 74% FAVORABLE
-78% of BOTH Hispanic and Catholic respondents FAVORABLE; 52% Anglo respondents FAVORABLE (to 25% UNFAVORABLE)
-most likely to be unfavorable: Reps (of course) and 'those listing no religious preference', but pluralities in both groups still FAVORABLE
-Independents: 58% FAVORABLE

-North-Central NM: 74% FAVORABLE
Northwest and East: 55% of BOTH areas FAVORABLE
-Albuquerque Metro Area: 60% FAVORABLE

-Richardson best among 18-34 year-olds (72% FAVORABLE); worst among 35-49 year-olds (55% FAVORABLE to 24% UNFAVORABLE)

Man, how many politicians would kill for numbers like that...

[WMS]

-Richardson best among 18-34 year-olds (72% FAVORABLE); worst among 35-49 year-olds (55% FAVORABLE to 24% UNFAVORABLE)

Man, how many politicians would kill for numbers like that...

Wow...thats amazing... still dont think he should be on the ticket though and looks like he doesnt want to be either...

Yes, there are probably better choices for VP out there. And, after all Richardson's said about how he's not going to run in 2004, he would face a bit of a firestorm in NM if he left now. I read somewhere that he wouldn't turn down a job as Secretary of State in a Kerry Administration...