State Changes in 2004

[Gustaf]

I voted Iowa, but it's pretty hard to call, since there are a lot of tossups in this election.

[Gustaf]

I agree that Iowa will probably be harder...but most importantly, people forget about PA, which I think Kerry will have trouble with...

[Gustaf]

Astute observations, all.  And we could talk about the convenience stores in northwestern NM and northeastern AZ with a few old brown bananas and a few loaves of bread and nothing else on empty shelves.  The third world right here in the four corners of the USA.  And the GOP is lacking in the 'compassionate' I realize.  It is a total guess.  I surrender.  

But be careful if you seriously attempt to call your taxes high.  Or expenses for that matter.  People here post from places where the taxes really are high.

Exactly. 52% of GDP anyone?

I think New Mexico is a basic tossup. I have it leaning VERY MARGINALLY to Kerry, but I'd say maybe 50.1% chance of going Kerry and 49.99% of going Bush, if you get what I mean. Richardson and more Hispanics is the basic argument for Kerry and the fact that the entire South-West is trending Dem.

[Gustaf]

Astute observations, all.  And we could talk about the convenience stores in northwestern NM and northeastern AZ with a few old brown bananas and a few loaves of bread and nothing else on empty shelves.  The third world right here in the four corners of the USA.  And the GOP is lacking in the 'compassionate' I realize.  It is a total guess.  I surrender.  

But be careful if you seriously attempt to call your taxes high.  Or expenses for that matter.  People here post from places where the taxes really are high.

Exactly. 52% of GDP anyone?

I think New Mexico is a basic tossup. I have it leaning VERY MARGINALLY to Kerry, but I'd say maybe 50.1% chance of going Kerry and 49.99% of going Bush, if you get what I mean. Richardson and more Hispanics is the basic argument for Kerry and the fact that the entire South-West is trending Dem.

But then again Hispanics could be a reason to give the advantage to Bush....are there any polls out showing how Bush is doing amoungst Hispanics at the moment....it really does come down to how Bush attempts to win over hispanic voters goes down with them IMHO....

Even though I think the Hispanic vote is trending Bush, I do believe the majority still vote Dem? Anyway, Richardson should help with the Hispanic vote in NM.

[Gustaf]

I'm thinking Iowa swings back to the GOP. New Hampshire will most likely go Dem, too.

Add PA swinging, and you basically have my prediction.

[Gustaf]

I'm thinking Iowa swings back to the GOP. New Hampshire will most likely go Dem, too.

Add PA swinging, and you basically have my prediction.

I think Pa swings GOP.

That's what I said.

Ben,

it was 4.17%. And I think Kerry will underperform in the steel states, especially in PA...it's just my gut feeling.