State Changes in 2004

[Ben.]

I'd have to say Wisconsin

sorry but no way is Wisconsin the most marginal Dem state…while its result in 2000 was a very slim win for Gore, it was not as slim as Gore’s wins in NM and IA both of which I would say that while tossups are leaning to Bush this time around…factor in a less strong Nader run (in 2000 he got nearly 4%) and that adds between 1.5 and 2% IMHO to the Dem total…add to that the normal interchange of moderates who voted for one party last time but will vote for the other party this time around, which will probably have a very marginal effect and the Dems have the advantage…in addition the make up of its elected officials is overwhelmingly Democratic… the Governor and Lieutenant governor are Democrats, both Senators are Democrats, four of the eight congressmen are democrats and over 800,000 people took part in the Democratic primary this year…now that is a state which must be seen to lean solidly to the Democrats…admittedly it will be close, though I would hazard not as close as last time round, but it will only fall to the GOP after states such as NM, IA and MN…

Back to the original question for the GOP, New Hampshire, Ohio and West Virginia are the most likely to be lost this time around… while for the Dems, Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico are probably the most at risk…                    

[Ben.]

At this stage, I am 80% sure IA will swap, the highest probability in my mind, followed by NM and about 70%.

The highest for going GOP-dem is NH, followed by WV. I think FL is next because there could well be a massive turnout of ANGRY Floridian democrats this year.

What about Ohio...economic factors there should help the dems far more than in FL or NH

[Ben.]

Astute observations, all.  And we could talk about the convenience stores in northwestern NM and northeastern AZ with a few old brown bananas and a few loaves of bread and nothing else on empty shelves.  The third world right here in the four corners of the USA.  And the GOP is lacking in the 'compassionate' I realize.  It is a total guess.  I surrender.  

But be careful if you seriously attempt to call your taxes high.  Or expenses for that matter.  People here post from places where the taxes really are high.

Exactly. 52% of GDP anyone?

I think New Mexico is a basic tossup. I have it leaning VERY MARGINALLY to Kerry, but I'd say maybe 50.1% chance of going Kerry and 49.99% of going Bush, if you get what I mean. Richardson and more Hispanics is the basic argument for Kerry and the fact that the entire South-West is trending Dem.

But then again Hispanics could be a reason to give the advantage to Bush....are there any polls out showing how Bush is doing amoungst Hispanics at the moment....it really does come down to how Bush attempts to win over hispanic voters goes down with them IMHO....

[Ben.]

Astute observations, all.  And we could talk about the convenience stores in northwestern NM and northeastern AZ with a few old brown bananas and a few loaves of bread and nothing else on empty shelves.  The third world right here in the four corners of the USA.  And the GOP is lacking in the 'compassionate' I realize.  It is a total guess.  I surrender.  

But be careful if you seriously attempt to call your taxes high.  Or expenses for that matter.  People here post from places where the taxes really are high.

Exactly. 52% of GDP anyone?

I think New Mexico is a basic tossup. I have it leaning VERY MARGINALLY to Kerry, but I'd say maybe 50.1% chance of going Kerry and 49.99% of going Bush, if you get what I mean. Richardson and more Hispanics is the basic argument for Kerry and the fact that the entire South-West is trending Dem.

But then again Hispanics could be a reason to give the advantage to Bush....are there any polls out showing how Bush is doing amoungst Hispanics at the moment....it really does come down to how Bush attempts to win over hispanic voters goes down with them IMHO....

Even though I think the Hispanic vote is trending Bush, I do believe the majority still vote Dem? Anyway, Richardson should help with the Hispanic vote in NM.

Your proably right about Richardson helping Kerry....what was Richardson's margin when he got elected?...but i think the Hispanics trend to Bush not the GOP itself...i think that Jeb would also have apeal to them but then again his experaince is with Cubans...but as a texan its not suprisng that W is keen to apeal to and sucessful at apealing to Hispanic voters...but i dont think that is true for the rest of the GOP....
   

[Ben.]

Astute observations, all.  And we could talk about the convenience stores in northwestern NM and northeastern AZ with a few old brown bananas and a few loaves of bread and nothing else on empty shelves.  The third world right here in the four corners of the USA.  And the GOP is lacking in the 'compassionate' I realize.  It is a total guess.  I surrender.  

But be careful if you seriously attempt to call your taxes high.  Or expenses for that matter.  People here post from places where the taxes really are high.

Exactly. 52% of GDP anyone?

I think New Mexico is a basic tossup. I have it leaning VERY MARGINALLY to Kerry, but I'd say maybe 50.1% chance of going Kerry and 49.99% of going Bush, if you get what I mean. Richardson and more Hispanics is the basic argument for Kerry and the fact that the entire South-West is trending Dem.

But then again Hispanics could be a reason to give the advantage to Bush....are there any polls out showing how Bush is doing amoungst Hispanics at the moment....it really does come down to how Bush attempts to win over hispanic voters goes down with them IMHO....

Even though I think the Hispanic vote is trending Bush, I do believe the majority still vote Dem? Anyway, Richardson should help with the Hispanic vote in NM.

Your proably right about Richardson helping Kerry....what was Richardson's margin when he got elected?...but i think the Hispanics trend to Bush not the GOP itself...i think that Jeb would also have apeal to them but then again his experaince is with Cubans...but as a texan its not suprisng that W is keen to apeal to and sucessful at apealing to Hispanic voters...but i dont think that is true for the rest of the GOP....
   

Richardson had a weak opponet so it wouldn't really translate.

who...did the republican Gov from 2000...I saw him on that documentary by that Actor Philip Hoffman (I think that’s the actors name the blonde version of Jack Black) about the 2000 election...well did that Gov run for re-election (he was very pro-cannabis and other drug legalisation as I remember)...

[Ben.]

 

I'm thinking Iowa swings back to the GOP. New Hampshire will most likely go Dem, too.

Add PA swinging, and you basically have my prediction.

I think Pa swings GOP.

really really doubt it.... PA is a second tier swing state...if the GOP wins there...then they will probably win FL, WV, NH, IA, NM and MN....a Bush swing of 3-4% would be needed to win PA...Gore did win there by 5% last time round...there are far far more marginal states

[Ben.]

I'm thinking Iowa swings back to the GOP. New Hampshire will most likely go Dem, too.

Add PA swinging, and you basically have my prediction.

I think Pa swings GOP.

That's what I said.

Ben,

it was 4.17%. And I think Kerry will underperform in the steel states, especially in PA...it's just my gut feeling.

Why?... free trade and unemployment are big issues in these states (WV, OH and PA) and both will hurt Bush…added to this both the GOP and the Dems will be pouring massive amounts of money and ads into these states so I doubt either Bush or Kerry will sweep them…if Toomey gets nominated in PA then that will also probably help Kerry… remember there are 200,000 unemployed in OH!...how many of these will vote for Bush?...Kerry will do just as well as Gore in these states IMHO, he will also benefit from those in the steel industry who voted for Bush in 2000 and are now angry at him for repealing the steel tariffs…so I really disagree with your argument that Kerry will under perform in the steel states…on the balance of things he might do worse than Gore but he still has the advantage over Bush…and don’t underestimate those blue collar steel workers who voted Bush in 2000 and will be inclined towards Kerry this time around…    

[Ben.]

-Richardson best among 18-34 year-olds (72% FAVORABLE); worst among 35-49 year-olds (55% FAVORABLE to 24% UNFAVORABLE)

Man, how many politicians would kill for numbers like that...

Wow...thats amazing... still dont think he should be on the ticket though and looks like he doesnt want to be either...